In an effort to endear myself to the Offaly and Wexford massive I am going to explain why I have placed 100 on both Wexford and Offaly to win the All-Ireland in 2009.
Now I know it’s very early but if these odds are a wrong as I think they are they’ll be corrected sooner rather than later.
Best case scenario either or both get to the All Ireland semi final and I cash out with them at about 10/1 or 15/1 for the All-Ireland.
Here are the current odds that in my opinion are all wrong.
Wexford were 1 point off a semi final this year. If they get to the semis and have already played kk then they have to play the munster winners(who will that be and how good are they?).
Probably Tipp?
Now that Galway are in Leinster that makes it softer for Offaly/Wexford. They can lose to KK or Galway in Leinster, not be knocked out and be guaranteed not to meet them again til the final
Munster is weakening. Cork are in their yearly mess, their team will be one year older next year too. Clare aren’t great shakes either. Limerick have their perpetual unrealised potential. Waterford could be gone for a good while or could be back as strong as ever next year. Who knows? I imagine it will be somewhere in the middle.
Tipp should win munster again but Offaly or Wexford won’t fear the Munster Champions like they would 3 or 4 years ago.
So this is either genius or IOTM material.
Either way I’d like to know what the rest of the GAA/GGA brains make of my outlay.
I don’t expect them to win the AI or even make the AI Final.
I’d imagine if either make the AI semi I would cash out straight away depending on the draw and how the teams had been playing.
Say Offaly make the AI semi and move in to 14-1.
I’d make about €850.
[quote=“cluaindiuic”]I don’t expect them to win the AI or even make the AI Final.
I’d imagine if either make the AI semi I would cash out straight away depending on the draw and how the teams had been playing.
Say Offaly make the AI semi and move in to 14-1.
I’d make about 850.[/quote]
Gamey to put 100 on each of them but I agree with your reasoning on the level of competition all the same. A year or two back Kilkenny and Cork were ahead of the pack with Waterford leading the chase but now it’s Kilkenny on their own heading things with everyone else capable of beating each other on any given day. Most Munster counties (bar Kerry!) would probably fancy their chances against us and Offaly but equally we wouldn’t fear any of them either.
[quote=“cluaindiuic”]In an effort to endear myself to the Offaly and Wexford massive I am going to explain why I have placed 100 on both Wexford and Offaly to win the All-Ireland in 2009.
Now I know it’s very early but if these odds are a wrong as I think they are they’ll be corrected sooner rather than later.
Best case scenario either or both get to the All Ireland semi final and I cash out with them at about 10/1 or 15/1 for the All-Ireland.
Here are the current odds that in my opinion are all wrong.
Wexford were 1 point off a semi final this year. If they get to the semis and have already played kk then they have to play the munster winners(who will that be and how good are they?).
Probably Tipp?
Now that Galway are in Leinster that makes it softer for Offaly/Wexford. They can lose to KK or Galway in Leinster, not be knocked out and be guaranteed not to meet them again til the final
Munster is weakening. Cork are in their yearly mess, their team will be one year older next year too. Clare aren’t great shakes either. Limerick have their perpetual unrealised potential. Waterford could be gone for a good while or could be back as strong as ever next year. Who knows? I imagine it will be somewhere in the middle.
Tipp should win munster again but Offaly or Wexford won’t fear the Munster Champions like they would 3 or 4 years ago.
So this is either genius or IOTM material.
Either way I’d like to know what the rest of the GAA/GGA brains make of my outlay.[/quote]
Are you sure the ‘Leinster’ sides cant meet at the quarter final stage?
How can ya make money though. Granted you have 12500 riding on Wexford. Odds shrink to 14/1 for semi finals? How can you cash out at this point?
My understanding is they can’t if they have already met.
I’d love to see Wexford vs Offaly in a quarter final. Win-win.
Can’t see both making the semis.
[quote=“cluaindiuic”]My understanding is they can’t if they have already met.
I’d love to see Wexford vs Offaly in a quarter final. Win-win.
Can’t see both making the semis.
Ya I have had a Betfair acct for a few years and lay every now and again.
Now my Maths aint great so I will take it slow.
Lets say Wexford get to the semi final. Odds on Betfair for Wexford to win All Ireland are 9.9. You can lay them for 10.1.
You think it is highly unlikely that Wexford are going to bring in your potential winnings of 12,500 by winning the All Ireland so you decide to lay off the full amount on Betfair. Liability on Wexford winning is now 12,500 so you break even if they do lift Liam due to your original bet.
BUT
Your Befair account still has to be able to cover the liability of 12,500 in order for your bet to be placed. How are you going to get 12,500 into your account
Should you offer slightly generous odds to ensure your bet is fully matched?
12k is a lot of money but if there is a guaranteed return of 1k on the other side I’d source the money. Even if you were to max out a couple of credit cards for 6 weeks it’d still be a big profit. That’s a nice problem to have.
[quote=“KIB man”]Ya I have had a Betfair acct for a few years and lay every now and again.
Your Befair account still has to be able to cover the liability of 12,500 in order for your bet to be placed. How are you going to get 12,500 into your account
Should you offer slightly generous odds to ensure your bet is fully matched?
My head is melting[/quote]
If you place the original bet on Betfair then you can lay off for the full amount (12k) on Betfair because the system knows that you will have the money to cover it if Wexford do win.
did they not stop all that after the Carling Cup final debacle a few years back?
You could back all the players before the teams were announced for Chelsea/Liverpool and according to the system you couldn’t lose…lads kept backing and laying backing and laying and all you could see was green on the screen. Then the teams were named and anyone not in the squads were turfed out of it and loads of players started to turn red on the screens.
It cost Betfair a fortune as they had to make up the shortfall as it was their fault. I thought they did away with the system then.
[quote=“tipptops*”]did they not stop all that after the Carling Cup final debacle a few years back?
You could back all the players before the teams were announced for Chelsea/Liverpool and according to the system you couldn’t lose…lads kept backing and laying backing and laying and all you could see was green on the screen. Then the teams were named and anyone not in the squads were turfed out of it and loads of players started to turn red on the screens.
It cost Betfair a fortune as they had to make up the shortfall as it was their fault. I thought they did away with the system then.[/quote]
Ah no, not at all. That scenario was purely an anomaly in the way Betfair created the market as opposed to the system of the backing to lay. As you said it was Betfairs fault, I remember reading about it at the time, there’s a actually a very funny thread somewhere where there’s fellas posting about this fool proof system but then as the players start to turn red they realise they stand to lose a fortune.
The straight forward back to lay that Cluainduaic is on about is the essence of Betfair.
[quote=“The Runt”]Ah no, not at all. That scenario was purely an anomaly in the way Betfair created the market as opposed to the system of the backing to lay. As you said it was Betfairs fault, I remember reading about it at the time, there’s a actually a very funny thread somewhere where there’s fellas posting about this fool proof system but then as the players start to turn red they realise they stand to lose a fortune.
The straight forward back to lay that Cluainduaic is on about is the essence of Betfair.[/quote]
Exactly. Back at a price that you think is too high and overpriced and if you are correct when the price moves in you lock in the profit between those prices.
[quote=“The Runt”]Ah no, not at all. That scenario was purely an anomaly in the way Betfair created the market as opposed to the system of the backing to lay. As you said it was Betfairs fault, I remember reading about it at the time, there’s a actually a very funny thread somewhere where there’s fellas posting about this fool proof system but then as the players start to turn red they realise they stand to lose a fortune.
The straight forward back to lay that Cluainduaic is on about is the essence of Betfair.[/quote]
But since CD has put his inital bet on PP. Again how is he going to get $12,500 to cover his liability on Betfair.
Didnt know that Betfair count potential winnings to cover potential liability. Are you absolutely sure Runt?
