So the 2014 AFL season is upon us again, and it seems like the best teams of last year, namely the Hawks, Dockers and Swans are going to be the 3 teams to once again dominate.
The biggest news of the off season was Buddy Fanklins record setting deal taking him to Sydney. It was a massive move, and a 9 year contract to boot which raised some question marks over the validity of such a deal, but it was approved and done and Buddy has kicked off his career in Sydney quietly in the opening NAB cup games.
As to which of the 3 will win it? I think I’ll go with Sydney. I think Freo will drop off, as there rigid gameplan and throttling tactics can be overcome, but the Hawks and Sydney would be my finalists predictions, with Sydney edging this one. I think Richmond will continue with their impressive rise, and also think that North Melbourne and Gold Coast will be the other 2 to start pushing on. The Eagles will be a marked improvement on last year, but that wouldn’t say much as they were diabolical, but they have a new manager and a new focus, so it should drive them back up the ladder. Carlton and Collingwood would be my tips to ones who could fall off badly.
1. Sydney Swans
Ins – Lance Franklin, Brandon Jack
Outs – Jude Bolton, Mitch Morton, Shane Mumford, Jesse White
Key Players – Franklin, Adam Goodes, Kurt Tippet, Kieron Jack, Jarred McVeigh
Obviously all the news will be on Franklin. They dumped a few tall forwards in the reshuffle to make way for both the player and his money, and have also lost a handy ruckman in Mumford. Goods and Tippett are both out of action early on for them too, but it was the fall out at the end of the year which was most worrying. They need to finish stronger, and the loss of Goodes, IMO, was a huge factor last year. In case anyone forgot, Tommy Walsh still is there recovering from his bad hamstring injury.
2. Hawthorn Hawks
Ins – Ben McEvoy, Dayle Garlett
Outs – Buddy Franklin,
Key Players – Sam Mitchell, Jaryd Roughead, Luke Hodge, Jack Gunston, Cyrli Rioli
Again, its all about Buddy. How will they cope without his considerable contribution. It’s a big loss, and pressure will be on Gunston and Isaac Smith to take up the goal scoring, and David Hale to be the ruckman to do the tall work up front when necessary. Their midfield is still brilliant, and Rioli has been tried in defence during the NAB cup, so it will be interesting to see if he plays at half back and attacks from deep with his power and speed.
3. Fremantle Dockers
Ins – Scott Gumbleton, Colin Sylvia,
Outs – no one worth talking about
Key Players – Matthew Pavlich, Ryan Crowley, Aaron Sandilands, Nathan Fyfe, Michael Walters
A great season for Freo last year, getting to their first Grand Final. They were well beaten, but it was a huge step up for them on previous years. They have a great defensive system, and all they need now is a scoring threat. Gumbleton was picked up to provide this, but he is out with a hamstring injury for an extended period. Sylvia was also brought in, but he has been wallowing in the WAFL so not exactly the impact he was expected to bring. I think their lack of attacking will be a big factor. Once teams can work out how to break down their defence, I don’t think they have the quality in depth to match up to a scoring or skills level with other sides.
4. Richmond Tigers
Ins – Shaun Hampson
Outs – Robin Nahas, Luke McGuan, Sam Lonergan
Key Players – Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Bradnon Ellis, Brett Deledio
A loss to Carlton in the finals was hugely disappointing. It was a game they should easily have won, but the collapse of the side brings doubts about them into this season. Riewoldts ‘media gagging’ is also another distraction that isn’t needed, but with the quality and speed of their midfield, they should be able to keep up the form they showed last year, and learn from their mistakes. Whther they have the belief or not to push on is another thing, and a fall from grace out of the 8 wouldn’t be altogether surprising either. But they have enough quality to easily make finals, so it’s a case of making amends for a poor final game last year for the Tigers.
5. Geelong Cats
Ins – fuck all of note
Outs – Paul Chapman, James Podsiadly, Josh Hunt, Joel Corey
Key Players – Joel Selwood, Steve Johnson, Harry Taylor, Travis Varcoe, Jimmy Bartel
I struggled to pick 5 top players that weren’t hitting past the peak of their game. They are an aging side, but yet consistently have been at the top since 05. Every year someone tips them to fall off the pace and out of the 8, is it this year? It don’t think so. It could very well be, but I just think there is too much quality and experience to let it happen this time around. Tom Hawkins has developed really well, and the losses to their side aren’t overly significant.
6. West Coast Eagles
Ins – Xavier Ellis, Elliot Yeo
Outs – heap of retirements, Daneil Kerr, Andrew Embley, Mark Nicoski, Adam Selwood, Asthon Hams, Brad Dick
Key Players – Nic Natanui, Scott Selwood, Josh Kennedy, Luke Shuey, Sharrod Wellingham
A really bad year for West Coast last year after being tipped for a top 4 spot. They showed no conviction at all in their play, and were abysmal in their workrate and effort, particularly in midfield. With a new coach in place, they played most of the starters in the NAB cup games to implement his gameplan, and they had some impressive outings. But NAB cup means fuck all, just ask Carlton, so how they go in the heat of the real AFL season is another thing. I think they have far too much quality though to miss out on finals again. Once their season was petering out, they gave up completely. This had as much to do with a staleness of coaching and everything in the club, so hopefully a new coach and ideas to boot invigorates them and pushes them back into contention again.
7. Collingwood Magpies
Ins – Tony Armstrong, Jessie White,
Outs – Heath Shaw, Dale Thomas, Alan Didak, Darren Jolly, Andrew Krakour,
Key Players – Scott Pendlebury, Travis Cloke, Dane Swan, Dayne Beams, Ben Reid
I’m not sure about Collingwood and Nathan Buckley. Their defence is pretty shit, and Travis Cloke is absolutely hit and miss as their key forward. Heath Shaw is gone from the backline, so who takes up the mantle of creating surging runs from deep remains to be seen. Collingwood have the quality on their day to be up in contention, its just what team turns up on the day is the issue. If they can get to grips with a more solid defensive line, then it will be a massive addition, if they don’t, they will slide down the ladder. Make or break for Marty Clarke too, on the edge of the squad, so could be finishing his time there this year.
8. North Melbourne Kangaroos –
Ins – Nick Del Santo, Robin Nahas
Outs – no one of note
Key Players – Drew Petrie, Nick Del Santo, Daniel Wells, Andrew Swallow, Jack Ziebell
A season that promised so much, and had a huge amount of upside as they suffered more last kick defeats than I think I ever remember seeing in a season. Their form didn’t reflect their final standing, but at the same time, they need to close out games they dominate. If they can fix that problem, they should easily make the 8. They have an abundance of talent through the middle, so they need to finally make that count.
9. Carlton Blues
Ins – Dale Thomas, Andrejs Everitt
Outs – Eddie Betts, Shaun Hampson, Jeremy Laidler
Key Players – Chris Judd, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Matthew Kreuzer, Jeff Garlett
Mick Malthouse in his second year, has brought in a couple of new recruits, but again, I’m not gone on them. They only got into the finals last year on a technicality and some last gasp wins. It was miracle stuff really, and credit to them, they had a good run of games to finish out the year. If they can build on that, they could make the 8, but I’m not convinced they have the talent to do so, and think it was more a case of adrenaline and some catastrophic collapses by opponents that contributed to their success last year.
10. Gold Coast Suns
Ins - fuck all other than draft
Outs – fuck all other than Jarred Brennan retiring
Key Players – Gary Ablett, David Swallow, Jaeger O Meara, Tom Lynch, Jarrod Harbrow
Will they push on from an impressive year last year? I was very close to putting them in the 8, but I think the sides above them still have that little bit more of an improvement level above Gold Coast. Its still all about Ablett. With him in form, they really are capable of anything. But their lack of power in the offseason trade was evident when other clubs were able to recruit top players. They may have reached their plateau on the playing list now, so it’s a case of keeping the development going forward.
11. Port Adelaide Power
Ins – Jared Polec
Outs – Brad Ebert
Key Players – Travis Boak, Kane Cornes, Oliver Wines, Jay Schultz, Justin Westhoff
They did really well last year, and beat a lot of top ranked teams, and every week, people wrote them off as being a fluke, and normality of getting a beating would return. But it didn’t, and they sustained a very good season to the end, beating Collingwood in the finals. Can they build on this? I don’t think so. I see them as the opposite to the Roos, in that they exceeded performance and won games they probably shouldn’t. They could still be a factor, but I have them just outside the 8 for now.
12. Adelaide Crows
Ins – James Podsiadly, Eddie Betts
Outs – Bernie Vince
Key Players – Paddy Dangerfield, Tex Walker, Brodie Smith, Eddie Betts, Rory Sloane
I don’t know what to make of Adelaide at all. Tex Walker is still not back, and without him, they are only half a team. They have added Podsiadly and Betts to the forward line, but I’ve never been a fan of the J-Pod, nor his ridiculous nickname. They have a good young midfield, and Sloane is a workhorse of immense talent, but they always flatter to deceive, and I think they’ll have a mediocre season again.
13. Essendon Bombers
Ins – Paul Chapman, Shaun Edwards
Outs – Scott Gumbleton, Nathan Lovet Murray, Alwyn Davey, Stewert Crameri
Key Players – Tom Bellchambers, Jake Carlisle, Jobe Watson, Dyson Heppell, Dustin Fletcher
Hard to talk about Essendon without mentioning drugs or ASADA or scandal involving them and suspended boss James Hird. Its too much of a factor to ignore within the team. They made 8th spot last year but were banned from finals due to the drug scandal, and the shadow remains over them. They have a decent side, adding Paul Chapmans experience will help, but I cant see them making finals positions.
14. Brisbane Lions
Ins – Luke McGuane, Trent West
Outs – Jared Polec, Elliot Yeo, Simon Black, Sam Docherty
Key Players – Pearce Hanley, Jonathon Brown, Joel Patfull, Tom Rockliff, Matthew Leuenberger
Brisbane have been hovering around the lower regions of mid table for a long time now. Justin Leppitsch is after taking over the managers position, and there has been a lot of in house shit going on with power struggles within the backroom office of the club. They have the ability to push on, so if Brown can stay fit, they could make a jump of a few places this year.
15. Western Bulldogs
Ins – Stewart Crameri,
Outs – Dylan Addison, Daniel Cross
Key Players – Ryan Griffen, Stewert Crameri, Robert Murphy, Matthew Boyd, Adam Cooney
Had a decent year last year, beating some good sides and showing good promise. A lot to build on, and again, could well start moving up. Murphy missing the start of the year doesn’t help, but they are building depth to the team so if they can keep the progress going, it could be a good year. I still think they will end up at the bottom end of mid table though.
16. Melbourne Demons
Ins – Daniel Cross, Bernie Vince, Dom Tyson
Outs – Colin Sylvia, Aaron Davey, Joel McDonald,
Key Players – Jack Trengrove, Nathan Jones, Mitch Clark, Jermey Howe, Bernie Vince
New coach Paul Roos has a hard job ahead. How to get a stale club back into the limelight. He has made some nice additions in the offseason, and has the nucleus of a decent side, so it can be done, but it will take time. Will he be given that time? Hard to know. The death this week of former coach Dean Bailey will set a sombre tone to their start of the season too.
17. St Kilda
Ins – Luke Delaney, Shane Savage, Billy Longer
Outs – Nick Del Santo, Justin Koschitze, Ben McEvoy, Stephen Milne, Ahmed Saad
Key Players – Nick Riewoldt, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna, Clinton Jones, Sam fisher
Such a fall from grace. Just a kick away from winning the flag a couple of years back, to absolute wilderness now. Nick Riewoldt is a pale shadow of his former self, and a lot of the players careers seem to be just fading out. Some of their additions are just cast offs from fringes of other sides. I cant see them making much of an impression this year.
18. Greater Western Sydney Giants
Ins – Heath Shaw, Shane Mumford, Josh Hunt, Tom Boyd, Jed Lamb
Outs – Shaun Edwards, Dom Tyson, Chad Cornes, Setanta
Key Players – Shane Mumford, Heath Shaw, Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward
One win last year says it all. They will probably get one or 2 this year against some of the sides down around the bottom, but its still a building phase for this team. They brought in some decent experience, but lost the big recruit in Buddy. They’ll prop up the ladder again this year.