Bosnia-Herzegovina is divided into two autonomous republics, the Bosnian Federation run by the Muslims, comprising 51% of the territory, which is most of the western half, and the Republika Srpska, comprising the other 49%, which is most of the eastern half.
The guy who leads the Republika Srpska is Milorad Dodik. It seems he now has designs on pulling the Republika Srpska out of the federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
He has announced plans to withdraw from the federal army and re-form a Bosnian Serb army. If that happens, I donāt think it leads anywhere good.
There are 170k Bosnian Muslims in the Republika Srpska out of a population of 1.218 million. The border is not contiguous however, with the Bosnian enclave of Brcko, right on the border with Serbia in the east, being entirely separated from the rest of the Bosnian controlled republic - though within that enclave, the Serbs are now narrowly the largest ethnic group.
If Dodik goes ahead with his plans, itās easy to see how all hell could break loose here. Russia is Serbiaās traditional ally and their fingerprints appear to be all over Dodikās sabre rattling. The west has now basically lost interest in the region, and Russia knows this, and probably sees another chance to undermine the west by creating another Ukraine/Transnistria/South Ossetia type āfrozen conflictā. The Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic is a populist nationalist, heās always seemed to me like a Slobodan Milosevic type.
This is definitely one to watch I think.
Segment starting from 19:59 in this link is worth listening to:
That tiny strip of Bosnia that gives it a coastline along the Adriatic, is a pain in the hole to cross while going from the north of Croatia towards Dubrovnik in the south.
Thereās an informal agreement there at the moment which keeps the checks very minimal.
Croatia are bound to join the schengen area though, so the EU arenāt happy with minimal checks. So Croatia are building a huge bridge to get around it, cutting off Bosniaās only access to the sea in the process
That wasnāt my experience at all. He literally waved me on the minute I got to the top going into Bosnia. Going back into Croatia he glanced at my passport
I was just about to say, minimal checks my hole. But then when they finally get to you, everyone on the bus just hands their passport up and they hardly even look at you.
Bosnia could be collateral damage from Russiaās war in Ukraine turning into a quagmire. As referenced yesterday Kosovo wants into NATO and to have a US base in its territory.
The Russians genuinely are pure scum, the scummiest of the scummy. They just to want destroy everything, Europe, the world, they donāt care.