Getting 502 errors all over the place on the other thread so posting here.
It’s possible Labour could win an election now (ie. in the next six weeks) but I’d say it would be by no means likely in the hypothetical event one was held.
For Labour to be likely to win an election at some point this year, I think Corbyn has to embrace the second referendum first. The enthusiasm he built up in 2017 has dissipated significantly because he has been so stubborn, and his core support is overwhelmingly pro-Remain.
That said, Corbyn is a better campaigner than May and could make up the ground he lost if there were to be a snap election - Labour supporting Remainers are highly unlikely to jump ship even if they aren’t satisfied with party policy on Brexit.
Anyway, the no confidence vote won’t succeed, and May will hang on and try to push her deal to the wire in the hope of either forcing it through as is or getting the Irish to fold over the backstop.
I do feel there’s a good chance of an election at some point this year, hell knows who would lead the Tories into it.
I think there’s a chance Labour implode over this, actually. Once the no confidence vote fails, Corbyn has one last chance to shift policy to favouring a second referendum. If he doesn’t, all hell could break loose. There would even be an outside chance of a split.