Realistically it isn’t 45%.
There were plenty of fence sitters.
Also natural attrition of voters.
I think it is fair enough that in any second vote that it is final. Despite the claims about people knowing what they were voting for, they clearly did not. Most key Brexiteers even said they would stay in the Single Market long before the vote. They might claim that changed during the campaign, but there was literally years and years of statements stating that trade would not be impacted.
It’s all anecdotal but listening to the radio phone-ins as many callers state that they were remainers but would vote leave next time to ensure the original referendum was honoured than people who phone in to say they were leave voters but are now remainers. I know that’s not scientific and part of the reason may be voters not wanting to admit they are responsible for this ball of shite by voting leave originally but I wouldn’t underestimate it either. The latest poll has leave on 46% still. The Brexiteers have the bit between their teeth now, they are not simply going to fade away if they lose a second referendum. Instead the UK would limp on for a period until the numbers stack up again for them.
Nothing to do with brexit though
I’m a man of peace Joe.
In the local elections this year the Tories increased their vote in constituencies that voted leave. As a result the expected collapse in their vote didn’t happen.
Wasn’t that mainly because UKIP were wiped out as Brexit had been voted through and they no longer served a purpose? Many of those who had voted UKIP returned to the Tories. Should they ‘betray’ them voters and lose them again in a general election and its at best a Corbyn led Government.
Kind of everything to do with brexit
Labour needs Blair
I wonder about the Leave vote. Quite a few people are extremely committed to the perspective but there is a demographic contour. People under 50 are notably Remain. This tendency waxes as you go down the age cohorts. With people in their late teens and early twenties, you are talking about 85+% Remain. I imagine more Leave voters than Remain voters have passed away since mid 2016. And I imagine that the great majority of people who were too young to vote in mid 2016 would be Remain supporters. These twin factors, in and of themselves, strengthen the Remain position.
There is also much more clarity now about what Brexit entails. The blithe inanities of Boris Johnson and David Davis could hardly survive in a colder climate. Likewise intriguing would be hearing JR-M defend his 50 year take on Brexit ‘benefits’, hearing Andrew Lilico defend his 2030 scenario for a ‘good’ Brexit. These half admissions of truth mean a ‘having your cake’ Brexit is no longer on the table.
It’s amazing if you stand back. Utterly amazing. You have the pm, who knows full well, and has pretty much admitted, that the democratic will would now favour remain, but she is doing everything in her power to thwart a vote. Its just bizarre.
Is she though? She could be a Machiavelian type genius who has engineered this horrible choice in order to gently force another vote, despite her public protestations. She was a remainer after all. And she herself dropped the possibility of “no Brexit at all” into the mix nicely this Week. Are we looking at the smartest most cunning leader of them all?
Some Labour chap was on the radio this morning and said that polling data shows that all the Labour constituencies that voted “Leave” would now vote to “Remain”.
There is a close game afoot here, behind the abundant rhetoric. I think most of the Leavers know they are unlikely to win a second vote. So they are now forced, so as to avoid a second vote, into a choice between the current draft deal (which is the inevitable bodge but at least takes them out) and no deal. Some Remainers, such as John Redwood, profess to be quite happy with no deal and WTO terms.
Other figures, such as Michael Gove, see the value of getting out on any terms and taking it from there. The longer the UK is out of the EU without ensuing catastrophe, the stronger Leave sentiment will become, hobbling any future Return referendum. The fact that the UK would not substantively be ‘out’ of the EU would be lost on the great majority of people. Instead they would feel: ‘We’re out of the EU and the sky hasn’t fallen. Why not stay out?’
Interesting, dangerous times.
I highly doubt that. Stupidity is not something that is overturned quickly, but rather entrenches itself.
In saying that, it’s pretty obvious a second vote would result in remain. But a second vote would unlikely ask that question, rather what sort of leave do you want.
She has ended up, if only by default, with a cunning plan. Beyond some of their posturing, the Brexiteers do feel squeezed.
I feel it’s obvious at this stage that the ‘deal’ isn’t going to get through the Commons and there will be a second referendum like we had with Nice and Lisbon
Jesus lads is May a genius? Has she played em all like a fiddle. Has she had em all hopping like sausages in a pan? She now finds herself in a position whereby she knows this deal will not get through parliament. Reports and Analysis this morning tend to suggest that she will have enough to see off a leadership challenge (perhaps even JRM jumped the gun and they can’t get near the amount of letters needed even suggested today). So the deal fails to get through parliament, she remains as PM and what next?? A second referendum which will defeat Brexit.
Theresa May, ever the Remainer? She’ll be seen as the GOAT, up there with Churchill after this.
As I understand it the parliamentary vote isn’t until 13 December. A lot of water will have passed under the bridge by then and I wouldn’t take it as a certainty that things won’t have changed sufficiently by then for it to pass.
