Funny stuff on James O’Brien. 
link
@Sidney this answers your question as well.
Bullet points;
- If there’s a deal with customs, single market etc. then nothing that follows is relevant
- If there is no deal by Dec 2020 a four year period will start whereby the North stays in the EU without the UK.
- After the four years they get to vote as to whether they want to stay in or out
- If the vote only passes by a majority it will roll for 4 years
- If the vote passes with a “cross community” deal i.e. more than 60% and with at least 40% of each of Unionists & Nationalists it will roll for 8 years
- If they vote against there will be a 2 year delay before they actually exit.
- I presume it rolls again for the 4 or 8 at the end of the relevant period. I’m not 100% on this though
The backstop is replaced
Overall the backstop has essentially been replaced by a full stop whereby Northern Ireland remains aligned to the EU from the end of the transition period for at least four years. A change can only happen if it is voted on by the Stormont assembly (more of that later).
As Jonathan Powell, Tony Blair’s chief negotiator in the Good Friday agreement, tweeted: “The funny side of the No 10 claim they have got rid of the backstop is that they have in fact transformed it from a fallback into the definitive future arrangement for NI with the province remaining in the single market and customs union”.
Stormont will have a key role in future Brexit arrangements. And if there is cross-community support to remain aligned to the EU rather than the UK the consent will hold for eight years.
The arrangements in this deal will automatically kick in for a mandated four years if there is a breakdown in trade talks, so it remains a “backstop” but with a permanent tinge.
That four-year period will start at the end of December 2020.
Two months before the end of the four-year period, that is October 2024, Stormont will be asked to vote on whether to remain aligned to the EU in ways outlined by this deal or not.
Assembly members will then be given the opportunity to effectively roll the deal over by a period of four or eight years.
If the vote is carried by a simple majority of one or more, the alignment will kick in for another four years.
However, “where the decision reached in a given period had cross-community support” the deal would roll over for an eight-year period.
The majority in the protocol for cross-community support is defined as a “weighted majority of 60% of the members of the legislative assembly present and voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations”.
If the vote is negative, then the regulatory uncoupling will not happen for a further two years: 1 January 2027. During this two-year period the EU will work out how to protect the single market, ie another backstop.
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You have missed poor Cosmo, whose latin blood was boiling and was saying the European regulations were preventing Britain from investing in bridges in Pakistan.
Backstop doesn’t involve ingerland, so boris and the erg don’t give a flying fuck.
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This is it … Boris is an English nationalist first and foremost.
It is a good way of getting rid of NI.
No one in the UK really gives a fuck about the North. At least they are finally starting to realise it.
Its happening.
A jury decides on criminal guilt to a burden of proof beyond reasonable doubt
It’s quite reasonable to think that somebody committed a crime but be able to accept that a jury could not convict to that burden of proof
Isn’t it?
Are you saying that Scottish law, for instance with their “not proven” category, is a sham
Of course you are
The much more pertinent question here, and it’s sad to to have to ask it of you, is why you think a rape needs to be observed in its entirety by an independent witness in order to even think it may have happened - never mind convict to a burden of reasonable proof
Nonsense. You said the evidence pointed to it being rape. The Jury, who saw more evidence than you, all threw it out fairly quickly. Done in a few hours. Have you not got enough shite to be spouting without reaching deeper into your locker for older insanity and lunacy?
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It’s amazing Sidney has not been snapped up by some government department given he’s wealth of knowledge on many subjects.
CPS should have never brought that case.
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Bertie on LBC radio now.
It did
Not to the standard of criminal proof obviously
You’re completely clueless about the criminal trial process, which is just one one more thing to add to the already extensive list of things you’re clueless about
You believing a rape needs to be witnessed by an unconnected person in full for it to be rape is just disturbing
This is probably ideal for the EU, instead of one great moment of crisis to force concessions from the Brits they get multiple cracks at it.
What could go wrong would be if Boris storms the next GE with a lot of Brexit hardliners as candidates and the new hardline MPs would happily crash out but to be honest they’re very very far from a majority of “no-deal” MPs currently. What would be very encouraging would be if the Tory rebels were allowed back in.
I think that’s where the opportunity for the Tories to split would come - the never ending series of extensions of the transition period
The Eurosceptic hardliners would get extremely restless and uppity at being a “rule taker” and “chained to the EU”
It makes a total mockery of the “get Brexit done” used car salesman schtick
Brexit would not be “done” for a decade and it would not be good for Britain
The NI frontstop is separate to all this and continues even if Britain crashes out so that is a good thing at least
The potential crash out at the end of 2020 scenario that Sam Gyimah (and @iron_mike, well done mate) was trying to highlight does seem to be gaining traction as a talking point now
It offers potential Labour turncoats a way out of backing this
Any Labour MP that votes for this should never be allowed darken the door of a workingperson’s club ever again
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