puke,
im going to use this thread to highlight horses for the cheltenham festival as i see them run. it will be usefull source of data for formulating bets. hope this is ok?
fire away, it is the purpose of the thread in essenseā¦set it up so we wouldnāt have to go thrawling over 100ās of posts in the SOK&EM thread come march
What race is Henderson aiming Ghimaar at, presume the coral
In the albert bartlet novice hurdle, i like the look of nicky hendersonās ex point to pointer mossley. he won the best trial run for this race so far, at the last cheltenham meeting. it was a real cheeky performance from barry geraghty, who nursed him home to win on the line. he was value for a much greater winning margin but it was taking the way he travelled through the race and up the hill. I didānt back him that day as his jumping was less than impressive at huntington the time before over two and a half miles. his jumping was noticable better here. he won his bumper on good/firm and so the better ground he is likely to encounter in march should not inconvenience him. Nicky henderson has a shocking record in both the neptune and this race, but id be hopeful that mossley may improve the master of seven burrows record.
court in motion was a most impressive winner of a grade 2 novice on heavy ground at warwick today over 2 miles 5 furlongs. He managed to defy a penalty and give weight away to some decent yardsticks. In doing so he paid a rather hefty compliment to his conquerer in the challow, backspin. it should be noted that emma lavelle stated immediately after the challow that court in motion was held up considerably in his work due to the weather. she has opening admitted that she sees this lad as a future gold cup horse. the intended target at the festival in the albert bartlet. ground would seem to be important to him and so he is unlikely to turn up at prestbury park unless there is some cut in the ground.
i would not be too disappointed with the run of mossley as the ground and trip would have being negatives today. back on a better surface, i would be confident of seeing a much better performance.
a media luz looked unfortunate when falling two out in the juvenile hurdle at kempton today. she was travelling the best and looked to have the race at her mercy. she was hyped up before her british debut at cheltenham where she gave herself no chance by pulling very hard. her next run at newbury saw her in a better light. held up out the back, she settled much better and came there travelling sweetly to two out before giving way to her better fancied stablemate grandouet. today again, she was keen but soon settled. a characteristic of all her runs is how slick she has being over her hurdles and so it was disappointing to she her step at the second last and fall. she may be best suited to a flatter track and so aintree may be more on her agenda than the triumph. should she line up in the triumph, she would be of interest. the traditional fast pace of this race would help her to settle and her mare allowance would be very valuable indeed.
After the ridiculous overreaction by the layers to Binocularās defeat of the Galway Hurdle winner, the 5/1 for Hurricane Fly with Ladbrokes (non runner, no bet) has to be taken.
9/2 into 7/2 is hardly a ridiculous overreaction
He beat nothing today Puke, compared to what heāll meet in March and anyone who hadnāt backed him before today would be crazy backing him now.
Crazy price imo - no value whatsoever
I backed him at 9/2 about two weeks ago and am quite happy with what I saw todayā¦Jumped his hurdles as well as ever and had the race won a long way out, he was probably only at 80% today and we know he gets up the hill at cheltenham and has the gearsā¦For all the talk of HF and win over the Christmas he only beat the likes of Luska Lad by a couple of lengthsā¦
Thatās fair enough Puke, but iād want 9/2 at least on the day. Did you back him NR/No bet ?
no took the 5.5 that was available on betfair
+1 to all that puke. hurricane fly has beaten the same horse (solwhit) over and over again. solwhit is not even running at cheltenham this year as connections know he has zero chance. Hurricane fly has yet to win a fast run two mile race on good ground. he has yet to run at cheltenham, and history shows that course form has significant relevance in this particular race. he is a montjeu, and none off his off spring has ever won at cheltenham.
so 7-2 binocular or 5-1 hurricane fly?
The Fly all day long at those odds FP.
Youāre getting 7/2 on Binocular getting there in one piece which is by no means a gimme and then going on to win what is shaping up to be the best Champion Hurdle in years.
5/1 The Fly NR/No bet is much better value imo. Iām not saying Binocular canāt win - my point is he is no value at the prices.
How many of the Montjeuās would be as good as the Fly out of interest ?
i would still be of the opinion that we dont know how good the fly is? however the montjeu statistic can not be overstated. amongst his jumping progency that have run at festival we have, won in the dark, blue bajan, noble prince (why i cant have him for arkle), westlin winds, capellanus, alexander severus, washington irving. they just dont seem to like that hill. stats are there to be broken and maybe the fly will be the one to do it but at 5-1, together with other concerns, he represents far worse value than 7-2 binocular in my opinion.
itās all about opinions FP !!
Best of luck with the wager anyway
Are we assume Ruby will ride HF if heās back and fit?
absolute certainty. i think golden silver is only horse townsend has first call on.
Gimme 100/1 Bino and 1/100 The Fly and Iād still take the Hurricane any day of the week but especially a Tuesday. Ruby will be aboard guaranteed
I would be very much of the same opinion regarding The Fly. The 7/2 about him a few weeks back was nuts and had to opposed. You have him lining up against Binocular, Menorah, Dunguib, Peddlers Cross and even Oscar Whiskey, all of whom have proven they can power up the hill in Cheltenham.