HF is a complete joke of a price
Fpark, why do you like Weird Al so much?
he has progressed every year and with every run (exception being the hennessy but plausible excues such as bounce factor and breathing). he is a marvellous jumper and has won from 2m 5f right up to 3m 1f. He acts around cheltenham and on a line through knockara beau (the one we seen last year not this year), he would have gone close in RSA. this now looks a very hot race in the light of what burtons port, long run, and diamond harry etc have done this year. His first run of the year when he deadheated with little josh was exceptional. he drifted like a barge (70% fit at most), blew up coming to last and ran on like an express train after jumping the last. this was over two miles four. He had a hard race there and was distressed i believe afterwards (maybe breathing). giving this im willing to believe he bounced in hennessy. he jumped well but empty very badly. Ian williams is a trainer i have a lot of time for aswell. Next couple of runs will tell us a lot and whether im right or wrong about his ability.
fair enough, think he might be a bit slowâŚone pacedâŚone to keep an eye on
kid,
he is not slow. may have looked that way in hennessy as he couldânt pick up, but thats what you associate with horses that have bounced. watch his run at cheltenham last year over 2 miles and 5 furlongs. i would say the sectionals over last 3 fences was exceptional by the clock. you wouldânt think that little josh was slow by way he won the paddy power but he looked it at that race at warwick when al was closing him down jumping the last.
It may be a useful tool come March to put up the antepost betting now for the main races at the festival, if anyone knows a way of doing this in a quick and neat fashionâŚ
grandouet ran out a very convincing winner under a penalty at ascot today. this propelled him to near the front of the betting for the triumph at march. his next intended target is the adonis, won last year by the stables soldantino. this indicates that the seven barrows team see the simon munir inmate as their leading contenter for the triumph. what is impressive about his profile is the way he has progressed with each of his runs this year. first time out at wetherby he was ay too free and ran out of petrol. next time out at cheltenham he was held up and clearly the plan here was to get him to settle and further his education. he still managed to finish second behind sam winner under a very tender ride. on his next start at newbury he progressed further by beating the stableâs other runner a media luz (an unlucky loser since), with consumate ease. he is now settlling really well throughout his races, is very slick over his hurdles and looks an ideal triumph type in what appears to be quite an open renewal. i would have him as my main fancy as of now, just ahead of smad place.
Agree with all that, i was very taken with him today myself and he looks a real good one.
Does anyone have any opinion on what races at the festival Minella Class and Staying Article are likely to go for? Presume the Supreme Novices. I am quite fond of both of themâŚ
today, wishfull thinking put in an exhibtion round of jumping over 2miles 5 furlongs. the time of the race was good, 4 seconds quicker than the novive handicap won by the giant bolster over same distance. he now looks a leading contender for the new grade 2, over 2 and a half miles at the festival. the quicker ground will be no concern to him and he will benefit from a stronger pace. a high class prospect, who seems taylored made for the ryanair next year.
Grand crus announced himself as the main contender to big buckâs stayers crown with an awesome display in the cleeve hurdle. a note of caution would be that all his best runs have come with cut in the ground. he is unlikely to get this in march and that for me would be a negative to his chances. it does highlight the chances of backspin in the neptune. grand crus beat for non stop by 6 lengths, in receipt of 1 pound over 2 miles 5 furlongs at cheltenham back in november. he was readily dispatched by backspin in the challow.
backspin was well beaten today by bobsworth in the neptune trial. the race was run in a very slow time and this was against backspin. this contributed to him running too free. he would also be better on quicker ground. granted his conditions in march, i could see backspin run a big race. bobsworth and rock on ruby are very very decent and command a great deal of respect. a negative for bobsworth would be nick hendersonâs atrious record in the neptune (never had a winner).
the giant bolster winning today gave another boast to time for rupertâs chances in the RSA (as if any more were needed). I read a stat somewhere during the week somewhere that every winner of the RSA has had one run after january 1st, prior to winning RSA. Quite a stat but stats are there to be broken and its hard to see what is capable of lowering TFRâs colours come march.
Except when it comes to Hurricane Fly it seems FP !!!
true TDB, and iâll be first o hold my hands up and say i was wrong if he wins in march. i feel he has a lot more against him than montjeu stat. fact that he has no course form, never won a fast run 2 mile race (speed figures are not of champion hurdle winning standard) and that his best bit of form is beating solwhit (beating out of sight last year and not running this year) are bigger negatives. we wont get our answers till march, and i sincerely hope that he makes the festival this year.
two horses caught my eye today that may or may not be festival bound. megans star ran out a most impressive winner of the two mile mares hurdle at clonmel. this was her second win on the bounce and it will be interesting to see where she ends up next. where ever that is, she will be of interest to me.
finally shuil royale won the bumper at wincanton under a penalty. this bumper was run at a frantic pace and timmy murphy had trouble pulling the winner up after the line. looks a serious prospect.
at leopardstown today, we seen a couple of impressive performances from unaccompanied and oscar wells. dermot weldâs mare established herself as our leading triumph contender with a taking display in the opening juvenile hurdle. nothing travelled better than this mare throughout the race. she was fast and slick over her hurdles and picked up well when asked. she was rated 100 on the level but had only won over a mile. i was concerned that she would lack stamina in a truely run race. she proved today that she stays the trip well but i would still have a slight concern that she may be found wanting over the dulations of prestbury park. connections feel that soft ground is important to her, but she did win at galway over good/firm.
oscar wells won a red hot renewal of the deloitte over two and a quater miles. he was slightly keen early, but travelled well and jumped with his usual fluency. this was easily the best novice race run either side of the irish sea this year. he sunk a lot of lofty reputations today with the minimum of fuss. connections stated that the neptune was his next target. the distance of two miles 5 furlongs should be well within the compass of this imposing son of oscar. he won his grade 1 over two and a half miles prior to this race today. he is a best price 7-1 now with the bookies and i see a lot of value in that price. i can only see it contrating right up to the festival.
ericht won the concluding bumper at newbury today in a very taking manner. the race was run at a good pace and the time of the race was excellent. the winner was able to quicken off this pace, and that marks him down as potentially exceptional. the runner up bygones in brid, also ran a noteworthy race. nicky henderson stated afterwards that the winner is likely to go for the champion bumper, despite him not being a fan of the race. this could be very telling. now a best price 10-1, for the festival, he goes there with excellent credentials.
samain won the bumper at naas yesterday, marking himself down as a leading contender for the champion bumper. he didânt show any of the greeness he displayed in his first run. always travelling well, he very nicely off a decent pace. certainly himself and lovethehigherlaw would seem to be the leading contenders on this side of the irish sea.
rivage dâor won the three mile handicap comfortably from stable companion rez de maree. the former has being a bit of a revelation since stepped up in trip. he has being called plenty of unkindly names in the past, but there was nothing wrong with his constitution yesterday. i could see him running a good race in the pertempts at the festival.
over in england on saturday, master of the hall put in another excellent round of jumping in winning the 3 mile novice chase at ascot. in truth, he probably didânt beat an awful lot. his intended target at the festival is the RSA, but it is hard to see him figuring. his win does highlight the form of hells bay win at cheltenhan over the jewson trip, when master of the hall was a well beaten off fourth and medermit was runner up.
at haydock, colin tizzardâs third intention continued his progressive profile with an unlucky second in the juvenile hurdle. a notable couple of features of his runs to date has being his slickness over his hurdles and keeness early on. the latter tendency and no doubt the ground probably cost him the race on saturday. i could easily see this lad run a huge race at a good price in the triumph. he also has some good course form with a close second over course and distance on his penultimate start. the quicker pace of the triumph may help him to drop the bit earlier and this would give him a very good chance.
The Festival is really coming into focus now, hereâs a few winners for ye
Supreme Novices, Cue Card-Banker
Having seen no improvement from Zaidpour, the challenge to Cue Card is looking weak enough and he looks primed to get us off to the perfect start
Arkle, Medermit
Am slightly worried about Ghizou but still think this is the one who will get King and Choc back to winning ways at the Festival
Champion Hurdle, Hurricane Fly -Banker
What a fookin horse!!!
Sunnhillboy will win the Mildmay of flete or the Byrne Plate or whatever the fuck their calling it nowadays where he was 2nd last year or they might decide to go for the William Hill, either way he wins. Keep a good eye on any market moves for the same connections Get me out of here if he shows up at Cheltenham.
Ryanair- Riverside Theatre
Ultra progressive and consistent, this is the year where it all comes together for him
Gold Cup- Long Run
We are about to witness a changing of the guard. Arise Long Run
Yeah, yeah fucking yeah.
i thought of you hangblaa when i heard the news
[quote=âthedancingbaby, post: 547302â]
The Fly all day long at those odds FP.
Youâre getting 7/2 on Binocular getting there in one piece which is by no means a gimme and then going on to win what is shaping up to be the best Champion Hurdle in years.
5/1 The Fly NR/No bet is much better value imo. Iâm not saying Binocular canât win - my point is he is no value at the prices.
How many of the Montjeuâs would be as good as the Fly out of interest ?[/quote]
you were right and i was badly wrong. I did lean towards the fly towards the end mainly due to last highlighted line. the more i thought about it, the more it made sense. it was not like 10 of the 44 previous montjeus had being well fancied and got stuffed. The fly is a true champion.
Puke shiteing on here about Hurricane Fly, youâd miss his old nuggets of wisdom so you would 