Fp, STF requires too much improvement on form, I am going to leave him
Shadow Catcher the one for the Triumph KC.
Can you put up your case pls
+1.
Price collapsing too 
Always happy to forgoe Irish trained animals in the triumph
Yes, he was very impressive on his debut win where everything didn’t go right, he would have won a very decent trial at Leopardstown only for hitting the front too soon and meeting the last all wrong. He’s a strong traveler that will love the undulations at Prestbury. All the English horses have been beating each-other and are exposed in a sense. If his hurdling ability has improved even a little in the last month he is the one they all have to beat.
I’m on at 20s, he’ll go off about 7s on the day. 
I’ll gladly lay him, you’ll get 10s at least
[font=tahoma][size=3]Can you put up your case pls [/size][/font]
Irish form is shite, RPR Doesn’t back up your somewhat ignorant claim that all the English challengers are finishing in a bunch, 10 years since last Irish trained winner
:o :rolleyes:
Good lord. The Grade 1 that Shadow Catcher was 2nd in is the best form we’ve seen from any juvenile hurdler this season, fact.
Fenway Park’s annual guide to the Cheltenham Festival continues with this preview of the third day’s racing.
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<span style="font-size: large;]Jewson Novices Chase
For Non Stop – This Nick Williams trained runner was a leading fancy for last season’s Coral Cup and was in the process of running a huge race until falling at the last flight. While he would not have beaten the winner, he looked sure to be at least placed. Blessed with plenty of scope it was not surprising to see his attentions switched to the larger obstacles at the beginning of the year. After falling on his debut in October, he ran the high class Al Ferof to a ¼ length in the Grade 1 Henry VIII at Sandown (good) in December over 2m. He was stepped up in trip for his next start at Newbury (soft) in December where he finished a 4 length second to Cue Card (gave 7 pounds). He lost all chance after a momentum stopping blunder at the fourth from home. Encouragingly he stayed on well thereafter. This stamina was seen to good effect on his final start in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase over 2m 5f at Newbury (good to soft) in February where he was delivered late off a searching gallop to beat Michael Flips by 2 lengths. Back in third, beaten 3 lengths was the 143 rated Our Mick which makes me question the substance of the form. Nevertheless this win marked him as an likely Jewson candidate. It is worth noting that he has fallen on his last two visits to Cheltenham.
Solix – This Michael Buckley owned gelding came from France with quite a big reputation midway through last year. He never quite lived up to this billing but put up some credible efforts, noticeably when finishing fifth off a mark of 152 in the Coral Cup. A huge horse with plenty of scope he was sent over fences at the beginning of the year. His jumping was far from convincing on his debut at Ascot (good) over 2m 6f, but nonetheless posted an easy 11 length victory. After another easy win at Cheltenham (good) over 2m 5f in November, he really announced himself as a horse to follow when going down to Champion Court by 1 ¾ lengths at Cheltenham (good to soft) in December. He gave the winner 3 pounds and emerges as the best horse at the weights. Noticeably his jumping was much better on this occasion. All his runs over fences have been in small fields but he showed the ability to handle the hustle and bustle of a bigger field at last year’s Festival.
Champion Court – There is not too many better looking horses in training than this Martin Keighley trained runner. He finished fourth in last year’s Albert Bartlett where the 3m 1f trip just seemed to stretch his stamina. Unsurprisingly he was sent over the larger obstacles at the beginning of the year. He unseated his rider on his chase debut at Perth (good to soft) in September but made amends the following month at Aintree (good) over 2m 4f. He was set an impossible task on his next start at Cheltenham (good) in November when trying to give Grand Crus five pounds, eventually going down by 10 lengths, over 2m 5f. He once again found his stamina stretched when stepped up to 3m 2f at Cheltenham (good) in December, but returned to winning ways over the intermediate trip with a game front running performance in the Grade 2 Dipper Novice Chase at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January where he beat Solix (gave 3 pounds) by 1 ¾ lengths. A feature of this race was how well he jumped from the front, something that was evident at Aintree in October. It looks like connections will apply similar tactics going forward and this assured jumper is well equipped to running this type of race.
Cristal Bonus – Formerly trained by Evan Williams, this high class ex French Hurdler moved to Ditcheat at the start of the year to begin a career over fences. Cristal Bonus made a winning debut over 2m 4f at Chepstow (heavy) in January where he was not extended in running out a very easy 25 length winner. A feature of this performance was his superb fencing. This was evidenced again in his final start where he captured the Grade 2 Pendil Novice Chase over 2m 5f at Kempton (good) in February by 13 lengths from Duke Of Lucca. He did jump to his left at many fences here, but this wont pose a problem around Cheltenham. He looks to have a leading chance in the Jewson where his alacrity over his fences will stand to him in good stead.
Call The Police – Willie Mullins looks to have Ireland’s leading Jewson contender in the shape of this lightly raced 9yo. Call The Police was not extended in making an impressive debut over fences at Gowran Park (soft) over 2m 4f in November. An indication of the regard that he is held by connections is the fact that on his final start he was considered good enough to contest the Grade 1 PJ Moriarty Chase over 2m 5f at Leopardstown (good to soft). This is a race that Willie Mullins has often targeted with his leading novice chasers. Call The Police jumped and travelled well off the decent pace set by Last Instalment but could not live with the finishing kick of the later over the last, 1 ½ lengths separating the pair in the end. It was a cracking effort from the runner up on only his second start and he looks a natural over the larger obstacles. He goes to the Festival with a leading chance but he underperformed last year over course and distance when a well beaten 7-2f for the Coral Cup. All his lifetime wins have come with soft in the going description with his two most disappointing efforts coming on good ground.
Verdict – Ireland won the inaugural running of this race with Noble Prince and our main hope looks to be Call The Police. The latter performed poorly at the track last year when 7-2f for the Coral Cup. All his best form is on heavy and so it is probably best to focus on the English horses when looking for the winner. Solix is the horse that interest me the most and on three pounds better terms I would be hopeful that he can reverse form with Champion Court. At 10-1 he is a good each way play.
<span style="font-size: large;]Pertemps Final
Our Father (rated 148) – When it comes to winning handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival, no one is more adept than the team at Pond House. In this David Johnson owned runner, they have a very likely candidate for the Pertemps. After a promising novice hurdle campaign, he appeared very well treated off an opening mark of 129. At Ascot (soft) in December, he proved this to be correct when running out a tidy 1 ½ length winner of a Class 3 Handicap, where he was value for much more. The handicapper agreed and has raised a whopping 19 pounds. Our Father still looks unexposed, and promises further improvement when stepped up in trip. Interestingly he held an entry for the World Hurdler which is indicative of the regard he is held in at Pond House.
Jetson (rated 132) – This second season novice was switched to the Jessica Harrington yard from Noel Meade at the start of the season. He made a winning start at Cork (soft) over 2m 4f in November. He was steped up to graded class on his next couple of starts but proved no match for the high class Mount Benbulben and Boston Bob at Navan (soft to heavy) in November and December. He made a winning handicap debut off a mark of 124 in the Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown (soft) in December where he appreciated the step up in trip. He has yet to race on ground better than soft but his breeding suggests that he should handle a better surface, being out of the same family as Noel Meade’s former high class hurdler Jered.
Sivola De Sivola (rated 132) – After winning a novice hurdle over 2m 4f at Carlisle (good to soft) in October, this Tom George gelding was stepped up in class for a Grade 2 at Cheltenham (good to soft) in November where he ran a race full of promise in finishing a 13 length fifth to the high class Fingal Bay. It was noticeable that he was doing his best work late on, which is unsurprising being out of the same family as My Will. He landed a bit of a touch on his next start by winning the Pertemps Qualifier at Newbury (good to soft) in December off a mark of 122. Unsurprisingly the handicapper raised him 10 pounds which left him right on the bubble for getting into the Pertemps. On his final start at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January he was stepped back to the minimum trip and again ran a race full of promise running on powerfully to finish a 5 ¼ length fourth to his stablemate Module. The handicapper raised him another 2 pounds which ensures he should get into the race near the bottom of the weights.
Thehillofuisneach (rated 138) – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill and running in the colours of Ffos Las supremo Dai Walters, Thehillofuisneach made his handicap debut over 2m 6f at Huntingdon (good to soft) in December off a mark of 101. He was not over extended in coasting to an easy 6 length success. He was quickly turned out a week later at Uttoxeter (soft) over 3m under a mandatory 7 pound penalty, making him 10 pounds well in. He only had to be pushed out by AP McCoy to record a very cheeky ¾ length win. On his final start in a Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick (good to soft) over 3m 1f in January it was more of the same as he defied a mark of 130 with consummate ease, been value for much more than the official 1 length winning margin. He is now on a mark of 138, but one gets the impression that there is much more to come and he rates a serious contender for the Pertemps.
Sergent Guib’s (rated 140) – When Rich Ricci bought Sergent Guibs, I would guess that a crack at the Pertemps was not the race they had in mind for his Festival target. Sergent Guib’s was sent off the 11-8f to make a winning debut in the Noel Farrelly Memorial Hurdle over 2m 4f at Punchestown (soft to heavy) in January but trailed in a well beaten 8 ¼ length third to the novice Ipsos De Berlais, where he was noticeably big at many of his obstacles. He put in a much more encouraging performance on his final start in the Pertemps Qualifier over 3m at Punchestown (soft) in February. Carrying top weight he travelled and jumped much better over this extra 4f but could make little inroads on the run to the line, finishing a 3 length third. One gets the impression that this lightly raced horse is not badly treated off 140, and is more than capable of shown further improvement in this race.
Verdict – Horses with an official rating 129 – 142 have won seven of the last ten renewals. Horses rated 150+ have struggled as have 5yos. Our Father is held in high regard and looks well equipped to carry a big weight in a handicap like this. I would respect his chance greatly but he would almost want to be Grade 1 class to give over a stone to Sivola De Sivola. The later looks extremely well handicapped to me and will relish the step in trip he is presented with here. At 17-2 he might well be one of the best each way bets of the Festival.
<span style="font-size: large;]Ryanair Chase
Rubi Light – Filling the sizable void left by Sublimity was never going to be easy but the Hennessy’s have found a more than able replacement in Rubi Light. It’s hard to believe that this 166 rated chaser was beaten off 143 at Limerick around this time last year. It was in last year’s Ryanair that he began to show his true capabilities when a 3 length second to Albertas Run. He may have gone a lot closer but for a blunder three out. He was in the process of running out a convincing winner in a Grade 2 over 2m 4f at Gowran Park (soft) in October but for fallen at the last. He made amends for this mishap when running out a ready winner of the Grade 1 John Durkan over 2m 4f at Punchestown (heavy) in December. Connections decided to step him up in trip in the Grade 1 Lexus at Leopardstown (good) and he ran another solid race in finishing 8 ½ lengths second to Synchronised. His final start came in the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park (soft) where he easily justified odds of 2-5f. It must be said that his form figures since the Ryanair slightly flatter him as the Irish staying division looks below standard. While he is effective on better ground as he proved in last year’s Ryanair, he would seem to be far more effective with plenty of cut. Should the going turn out soft for the Festival I would fancy him more, but on decent ground he may just find a couple too good.
Riverside Theatre – This Jimmy Nesbitt owned gelding made a belated seasonal reappearance in the Grade 2 Betfair Chase over 2m 5f at Ascot (good to soft) where he beat the high class Medermit by 3 lengths, the pair well clear. Riverside Theatre won this very race on his previous racecourse visit but unfortunately had to miss the Ryanair having met with a setback. This win propelled him to the top of the Ryanair market and he has a leading chance. There is a train of thought that he is better going righthanded but he has won going lefthanded twice. My main concern is that he has done all his winning on flat tracks and on his only appearance at Cheltenham in the 2010 Arkle he appeared to struggle with the up and down nature of the track.
Noble Prince – Paul Nolan’s charge ran out a ready 4 length winner of the inaugural Grade 2 Jewson Novice Chase at the Festival which is run over the Ryanair trip. He followed that up with a success in the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup over 2m 4f at Fairyhouse. So far this year he has been campaigned over the minimum trip and ran with great credit behind Big Zeb in the Fortria Chase at Navan (good to soft) and the Dial A Bet Chase at Leopardstown (good). He was slightly disappointing on his final start in the Grade 2 Normans Grove Chase over 2m 1f at Fairyhouse (soft) where he finished a ¾ length runner up to Blazing Tempo. The form of last year’s Jewson has not really held up that well with Wishfull Thinking and Loosen My Load underperforming. There is little doubt that Noble Prince’s optimum conditions are 2m 5f on a sound surface and one could easily see him emerging as Ireland’s leading chance in the Ryanair.
Great Endeavour – The winner of the 2010 Plate at the Festival, showed his liking for course and distance when running out an impressive winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November (good to soft). He won this in the manner of a much improved animal. Connections then decided to run him in the Henessey at Newbury (good) in November and nothing travelled better to the three mile mark. However his stamina soon began to wane and he trailed in a 5 length fourth to Carruthers. He finished down the field in the December Gold Cup over 2m 5f at Cheltenham (good), where he was unable to recover after making a bad mistake at the tenth fence. This represented his third hard race in the space of a month and in truth probably represented a race too far. The winner was Quantitativeeasing who Great Endeavour easily brushed aside in November.
Medermit – This Alan King trained gelding began his year in fine form with a good win in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter (good) over 2m 2f in November. He proved no match for Master Minded and Somersby on his next run in the Grade 2 Amlin Chase over 2m 1f at Ascot (good) in November. He ran an absolute cracker in the December Gold Cup over 2m 5f at Cheltenham (good) when going down ¾ of a length to Quantitativeeasing who was in receipt of 12 pounds. He had his final start in the Grade 2 Betfair Chase at Ascot (good to soft) in February where he finished 3 lengths behind the classy Riverside Theatre. He may have finished much closer but for nearly unseating Robert Thornton at the tenth fence. This result confirmed the opinion that 2m 5f is Medermit’s best trip as he finished a ¾ length second to Hells Bay in the Grade 2 Dipper Novice Chase at Cheltenham in 2011. With course figures of 2237242 one would expect him to run another good race but probably has place prospects at best as he just seems to be below genuine Grade 1 class.
Somersby – Made a successful seasonal debut at Kempton (good) in October over 2m 5f where he easily dispatched with the challenge of Aiteen Thirtythree. Surprisingly this was his first win in almost two years. He followed that up with a 3 length second to Master Minded in the Grade 2 Amlin Chase at Ascot (good to soft) over 2m 1f. He was sent off a well backed favourite for the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon (good to soft) in December where he was well favoured at the weights but was laboured in finishing a 4 length second to Gauvain. He may just have found this race coming a bit too soon on the back of his fine effort at Ascot the time before. Connections decided to step him up to 3m for the first time in the King George (good to soft) where he travelled powerfully to 4 out until his effort petered out. He finally gained a deserved Grade 1 success with a battling performance to beat Finian’s Rainbow by 1 ¼ lengths in the Victor Chandler over 2m 1f at Ascot (good) in January. There is no doubt that he likes Ascot but his career record at the Festival is excellent and includes a 3rd place finish in the Supreme, a 2nd place finish in the Arkle and a 5th place finish in the Champion Chase. The Ryanair trip looks his optimum trip and connections probably regret not aiming him at this race last year but will be hopeful he can make amends this time round.
Verdict – This looks the best renewal of the Ryanair and a strong case could be made for any of the leading contenders. Traditionally the Paddy Power Gold Cup has proved a useful trial but in recent years the race has attracted better horses and so it has paid to focus on those horses with proven Grade 1 form. This immediately points to Riverside Theatre and Somersby. Riverside Theatre has won two Grade 1s in his last two runs over this trip but I would be concerned about his effectiveness at this track. The selection is Somersby at 8-1 each way in the hope that 2m5f represents his best trip and back on a course where he has performed well at the highest level, he is taken to finally capture a Grade 1 at the Festival.
<span style="font-size: large;]World Hurdle
Big Buck’s – The greatest staying Hurdler of all time extended his winning steak over timber to fourteen with victories in the Long Distance and Long walk Hurdles at Newbury (good to soft) and Ascot (soft) respectively. This was extended to fifteen with victory over Dynaste in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham (good) in January. It’s really hard to believe that he is only rising 9 and although he will be beaten at some point in the future it is very difficult to see who amongst his potential opponents are capable of mounting a credible challenge. Critics often point to the fact that he has never achieved a decent speed figure. I think this is down to the fact that World Hurdles are notoriously slow run affairs and not conducive to achieving such figures. It is noticeable that he achieved his best speed figure in his latest effort at Ascot where Dynaste set out to make all. Although he managed to briefly get Big Buck’s off the birdle, in the end he ran out a very easy winner.
So Young – This Willie Mullins trained gelding is very much a talking horse. He was the subject of a considerable gamble for last year’s Neptune on the back of strong home gallops with Hurricane Fly. He finished third, beaten 4 ½ lengths but would have been closer but for a blunder at the last. So far this year he has had little difficulty in justifying long odds on at Punchestown (soft) over 2m 6f and Thurles (heavy) over 2m. On his final start he demonstrated plenty of pace in beating the classy novice Trifolium over 2m at Navan (soft to heavy) in January. As a rising 6 year old he is open to a lot of physical improvement but has some way to go before he justifies his lofty home reputation.
Mikael D’Haguenet – After a disappointing and fruitless season as a novice chaser, Willie Mullins decided to revert back to the smaller obstacles with the 2010 Neptune hero Mikael D’Haguenet. He was well punted to make a winner return in the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle over 2m 4f at Navan (good to soft) in November but could only finish a 7 ¼ length third to Voler La Vedette. He travelled well enough to two out but found disappointingly little after a slight mistake at that flight of hurdles. He returned to winning ways under a cheeky ride by Paul Townsend in a Listed Hurdle over the minimum trip at Fairyhouse (soft to heavy) in December. He was not overly extended to justify odds on favouritism in a similar contest at Punchestown (heavy) towards the end of December. He completed a hattrick of victories with a smooth success in the Grade 3 Limestone Lad Hurdle over 2m 1f at Naas (soft to heavy) in January. In truth these victories did not tell us an awful lot about Mikael D’Haguenet other than the fact that he has been smartly campaigned. This impression was confirmed on his final start in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle over 2m 5f at Navan (soft) in February where he was firmly put in his place by Mourad (who had disappointed largely up to this race). He looks below genuine Grade 1 level and it is difficult to see him making any impression in this race.
Oscar Whisky – Third in last year’s Champion Hurdle, beaten just over 6 lengths and winner of the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle over 2m 4f, connections decided to step him up in trip with a view to tackling Big Buck’s in the World Hurdle. He began the year by fallen at the last in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot (good) over 2m 4f. He looked to be staying on and could be deemed an unlucky loser. It was still a hell of a run as he was trying to concede 8 pounds to the high class Overturn. He showed that he was none the worse for that fall when giving the enigmatic Get Me Out Of Here 8 pounds and a 1 ¾ length beating in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle over 2m 5f at Cheltenham (good) in December. On his final start he gave 8 pounds and a 2 length beating to the 155 rated Poungach at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January. He is certainly the classiest opponent that Big Bucks will have faced to date. If he does stay the 3m trip, his potent turn of foot may be enough to shake up the Champ.
Voler La Vedette – Colm Murphy’s high class mare has enjoyed another fantastic season. She began this season by Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle over 2m 4f at Navan (good to soft) in November. She landed her first Grade 1 of her career when winning the Hatton’s Grace over 2m 4f at Fairyhouse (soft to heavy) in December, beating Mourad by a comfortable 3 ¾ lengths. She confirmed her superiority over Mourad in the Grade 2 Woddiesdiy.com Hurdle over 3m at Leopardstown (good) in December, 4 ¾ lengths separating the pair. She was beaten a length by Zaidpour under an astute ride by Ruby Walsh on her final start over 3m in the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park (soft to heavy) in January. Her superiority over Mourad will give her supporters hope that she can beat Quevega as the latter really put it up to the high class mare at Punchestown last year. Voler La Vedette did not travel to Cheltenham last year as connections felt that she does not travel well and felt that she was not at her best as a result when the pair clashed in 2010. There is little doubt that Voler La Vadette goes into this festival in arguably the form of her life but her chance may well be dependent on how well she handles the journey over.
Dynaste – This David Pipe runner manage to start the year by giving the Pond House team back to back winners of the Fixed Brush Hurdle over 3m 1f at Haydock (good to soft) in November, where he arguably put up as impressive a victory as his much heralded stablemate Grand Crus did twelve months earlier. Plans to go chasing were understandably aborted after this with connections deciding to set their sights on tackling Big Buck’s. The pair crossed swords for the first time in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (soft) in December. Dynaste set a frantic pace from the off, applying similar tactics to those used at Haydock and for a brief few seconds he looked like he had Big Buck’s in trouble, but ultimately he finished a 19 length fourth. Undoubtedly he lost second by trying to win his race. On his final start at Cheltenham (good to soft) in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle he was ridden with more restrain, only taking up the running three out where he attempted to skip clear of the field. Again he looked like he had Big Buck’s in trouble, but despite jumping the last in unison he was outstayed up the Cheltenham Hill, beaten 7 lengths in the end. He is well worth his place in the World Hurdle but on all evidence he has place prospects at best.
Verdict – Big Buck’s is the probable winner but faces the best field ever assembled for a World Hurdle. He has never produced a decent speed figure due to the fact that these races are generally slowly run affairs. Last year Grand Crus was ridden to beat him for toe but it made little difference as Big Buck’s has plenty of speed. It was interesting that at Aintree where the pace was generous that Big Buck’s put up arguably his most impressive performance to date. I feel that this may be a fast run race and that Big Buck’s will put up an exceptional performance. You are always looking for cracks to exploit in a champion but in truth Big Buck’s does not have any I can identify. I have my doubts about Oscar Whisky staying this trip in a fast run race and those looking for some each way value could do worse than look in the direction of David Pipe’s Dynaste at 14-1.
<span style="font-size: large;]Byrne Group Plate
Crack Away Jack (rated 142) – This former high class hurdler was switched to the Paul Nicholls yard at the beginning of last year. After a couple of disappointing efforts he was sent away for a wind operation and put away for the year. He made his seasonal debut at Cheltenham (good) in a Class B Handicap Chase over 2m in November where he was backed to make a winning debut off what appeared a lenient mark of 142 (rated 158 at his peak over hurdles). Held up out the back as is his want he started to make steady progress until losing all momentum and chance with a bad blunder at the third last, eventually trailing in just under 10 lengths behind Tanks For That. His final start came in a Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (good to soft) over 2m 3f in February where is ran well without ever really threatening. His Festival record is quite impressive with a win in the 2008 Fred Winter and a fourth place finish in the 2009 Champion Hurdle. He looks dangerously well handicapped for the Plate, where provided he puts in an error free round must go close.
Salut Flo (rated 137) – The team at Pond House are renown for winning handicaps at the festival and in this ex French horse David Pipe may well have a very well handicapped horse on his hands. Certainly someone felt he was well handicapped as he was sent off 13-2 for his seasonal debut in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham (good) in December on what was only his third race on a British racetrack. Always prominent he jumped nicely in the main until making a bad blunder at the third last from which he failed to recover. He was certainly travelling as good as any other runner at that point and while it is conjecture to speculate on what might have happened, it is fair to say he was running a big race. The handicapper has dropped him one pound to 137 and provided he is none the worse for the experience he must go close off that mark. He won on his British debut at Doncaster in March 2010 on good ground and so better ground at the festival should not inconvenience him.
Divers (rated 142) – This Ferdy Murphy runner won last year’s Centenary Novice Handicap Chase off a mark of 132. He was pulled up on his seasonal debut at Carlisle (good to soft) in October which was no more than a prep for his early season target, the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham (good to soft) in November. Racing off his revised mark of 144, he ran a fine race in finishing a 10 ½ length third to the impressive Great Endeavour. He was only 3 ½ lengths behind Quantitativeeasing off level weights. In the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham (good) he unseated his rider at the 11th fence in a race won by Quantitativeeasing. The winner is now rated 153 which makes Divers look attractively weighted off 142 especially if he gets his favoured good ground. AP McCoy has being booked for the ride in the absence of Graham Lee.
Hunt Ball (rated 142) – Keiran Burke enjoyed a great final season as a jockey by capturing the Byrne Group Plate with Holmwood Legend and finishing runner up on Sparky May in the David Nicholson at the Cheltenham Festival. Hunt Ball looks like he could be the flag bearer for his career as a trainer. Hunt Ball began the season by winning a Novice Handicap over 2m 5f at Folkestone (good to firm) off the lowly mark of 69. On his seventh and final start over 2m 5f at Kempton (good) in February he defied a mark of 127 with consummate ease. This win ensured that he would qualify for either the Centenary Novice Handicap or the Plate at the Festival off his revised mark. He still looks ahead of the handicapper, has shown his ability to handle an undulating track and his assured fencing will be a huge asset in an cauldron like the Cheltenham Festival.
Verdict – Only two out of the last twenty four winners were rated higher than 141. Nickey Henderson and Venetia Williams have a good recent record in this race and their runners automatically command respect. Salut Flo looks an ideal type for this race and could be potentially much better than his current mark. I am happy to put him up at 10-1 each way.
<span style="font-size: large;]Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Sunnyhillboy (rated 142) - This Jonjo O’Neill runner began his season back over hurdles in the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock in November, where he finished well down the field. That run was expected to put him spot on for his early season target, the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham (good). He was the subject of a huge racecourse gamble and went off the 7-2f. His supporters did not get much of a run for their money and he was pulled up before two out, having never travelled that well throughout. Post-race it emerged that he was suffering from an irregular heartbeat and so a line can easily be drawn through that effort. Certainly, the size of the gamble would indicate that connections of this JP McManus owned gelding felt that he was well handicapped off his mark of 142. It is easy to see why when Great Endeavour who he has finished closely behind on two previous occasions is now rated 157. He returned to hurdles for his final start where he ran down the field in a Pertemps Qualifier at Haydock (heavy) in February. He ran well enough for a long way on ground that would not be to his liking, the race presumably been used as a confidence builder more than anything else for a return to fences. One always got the impression that there is a big pot to be won with this son of Old Vic. He started favourite for this race last year and it would be no surprise to see him land the prize this time round should he put in a clear round.
Deal Done (rated132) – This Dessie Hughes runner has not being sighted since finishing well down the field in last year’s Irish Grand National. Prior to that he was a very good third in this race off a mark of 136 to the handicap good thing Junior. He was beaten just over 27 lengths by the winner but if you took him out he would have been beaten just over 3 lengths. He was fitted with a first time visor and this certainly worked the oracle as he posted a much improved effort. It is fair to say that he also benefitted from the better ground and step up in trip. A concern for his supporters would be that he has a poor record fresh and the reapplication of the visor may not be as effective second time round.
Verdict – This tough handicap has been upgraded from a 0-140 handicap to a 0-145. As it is an amateur race, jockeyship is of paramount importance and it usually pays to focus on those horses that are ridden by the top English and Irish amateurs, emphasised by the fact that JJ Codd has ridden two of the last three winners. In recent renewals, Donal McCain and Nicky Henderson have a good record and their runners are worth noting. Sunnyhillboy could be the subject of a Junior like gamble and is a confident selection. He looks a huge price at 14-1 each way.
http://www.thefreekick.com/blog/?p=3156]Read the full story here
The concluding part of Fenway Park’s guide to the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.
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<span style="font-size: large;]JCB Triumph Hurdle
Hisaabaat – This Dermot Weld trained juvenile has been a model of consistency since his switch to hurdling. After unseating his rider early on in his debut at Leopardstown (good) in December he finished a 1 length second to Sportsmaster at Naas (soft to heavy) in early January. A week later he contested the Grade 3 Juvenile Hurdle at Punchestown (soft to heavy) where he had to settle for the runners up spot behind Willie Mullins well regarded Ut De Sivola, his cause not helped by a mistake at the last. Not surprisingly he was sent off favourite for his next start at Leopardstown (good) at the end of January but again had to settle for second place behind another Willie Mullins horse Darroun. He finally got his head in front in some style by taking the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown (good to soft) in February where he was delivered late to beat the well regarded Shadow Catcher by 1 ¾ lengths, benefitting from a last flight mistake by that rival. Interesting he was fitted with first time blinkers and these certainly help to sharpen him up. That win booked his place in the Triumph Hurdle but one gets the impression that he may just be better on a flatter track and personally I would be concerned about his ability to get up the Cheltenham Hill.
Shadow Catcher – Gordon Elliot looks to a have a live contender for the Triumph Hurdle in the shape of this 80 rated ex flat recruit. He made an eyecatching debut at Punchestown (heavy) towards the end of December where he beat the well regarded Darroun by ½ length. The runner up has gone on the flanked the form since. On his final start in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown (good to soft) in February he travelled and jumped ominously well until making a mistake at the last. He never won beyond a mile and a quarter on the flat and I would be concerned about his stamina on a track like Cheltenham. Having said that, if he is held up longer before delivering his challenge it will certainly help his cause in this regard.
Baby Mix – So impressive was Hinterland on his British debut that this Tom George French recruit was sent off an unconsidered 14-1 shot on his British debut at Cheltenham (good) in December. He belied those odds in beating the 141 rated Hinterland by an easy 7 lengths. This was an awesome debut and a performance good enough to win most renewals of the Triumph as the runner up looked to have run his race. He was sent off the 7-4f to confirm that initial impression on his penultimate start in the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January, but trailed in a well beaten last of six runners. That run was too bad to be true and his cause was not help by his early race keenness and a couple of mistakes. He showed that run to be all wrong on his final start where he impressively landed the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton (good) in February by 2 lengths from the high class Sadler’s Risk. This performance propelled him back to the head of the Triumph Market and illustrated the importance of a decent surface to his chances.
Hollow Tree – Hailing from the Donald McCain yard this Beat Hollow gelding was an unexposed 80 rated on the level. He justified odds on when making an impressive debut at Bangor (good) in September. His sights were set considerably higher on his next start in the Grade 2 Triumph Trial at Cheltenham (good to soft) in November, where he finished a 3 length second to Hinterland (gave 4 pounds). He would have finished closer but a mistake 3 out but it was encouraging the way he battled and rallied thereafter. On his penultimate start he capture the Grade 1 Finale at Chepstow (soft) in fine style where he beat the 139 Countrywide Flame by 2 ½ lengths with a further a 11 lengths back to Secret Edge in third. His final run came in the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January where he finished 3 ½ lengths third to the classy Grumeti. He is an admirable sort who will be suited by the end to end gallop of the Triumph but maybe just below the class required to win this race.
Ut De Sivola – This Robin Des Champs gelding is a half-brother to Tom George’s classy hurdler Sivola De Sivola. Made an emphatic winning debut for Willie Mullins at Clonmel (heavy) in December over 2m where he was punted like defeat was out of the question. Unsurprisingly he started a warm order for a Grade 3 at Punchestown (soft to heavy) on his next start but was made to work hard by the Dermot Weld trained Hisaabaat. He won by just over 3 lengths, benefitting from a mistake by the runner up at the final flight. Hisaabaat managed to comprehensively reverse the form in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown (good to soft) in February. Ut De Sivola never jumped with any of the fluency that characterised his earlier victories and was struggling from an early stage. It maybe that he found the ground too quick and this would be an obvious concern for the Festival.
Darroun – This well bred flat recruit was an expensive purchase by Rich Ricci at the start of the year. He finished a ½ length second to the well regarded Shandow Catcher of Gordon Elliot at Punchestown (heavy) in November. He built upon that experience at Leopardstown (good) in January where he found plenty for pressure to run out a comfortable 1 ¼ length winner from the useful Hisaabaat. The form got a massive boast with Hisaabaat winning the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile on his latest start. Darroun seemed to appreciate the better ground here and looks most progressive.
Sadler’s Risk – This Philip Hobbs trained runner made a striking debut over hurdles with a 17 length victory at Kempton (good) in January. This propelled him to the head of many books for the Triumph Hurdle. He was a high class 12f horse on the flat when trained by Mark Johnston. His final start came in the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton (good) in February where he finished a 2 length runner up to Baby Mix. A speed track like Kempton was never going to play to the strengths of this thorough stayer and it was encouraging how he rallied over the last two flights to get so close to the winner, who in truth was probably idling after being in front too long. Sadler’s Risk looks tailored made for Cheltenham and it is not hard to see him possibly reversing form with the winner on a track that would play more to his strengths.
Grumeti – Trained by Alan King this 83 rated flat horse was a 100k purchase by Max McNeill who sponsors the yard and whose colours are carried by Walkon and the ill fated Mille Chief. He sprung to Triumph prominence with a victory against older horses in a handicap at Taunton (good to soft) towards the end of December. He beat the well regarded Ted Spread (winner since) by 14 lengths but was in receipt of 13 pounds. He was sent off 8-15f for his next start back in his own age group at Newbury (soft) in January where he had the race in safekeeping until flicking the top bar at the second last and crumbled upon landing. He shot to the forefront of the Triumph market post race such was the impression that he created. His next race came in the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January where he was awarded the race in the stewards room after Pearl Swan (gave 3 pounds) leaned into him and bumped him on the run to the finish line. Grumeti comes out of this race with a huge amount of credit as he was in the vanguard throughout while Pearl Swan more of less had the race set up for him and was the recipient of a tactical astute ride from Ruby Walsh. Connections decided to give him one more run at Kempton in Febraury in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novice Hurdle, eager to give Robert Thornton experience of riding Grumeti prior to the Festival. He comfortably held off the challenge of Dodging Bullets (received 7 pounds) by 1 ½ lengths, the pair well clear. He now goes into the Triumph with a leading chance of extending Alan King’s fine record in the race.
Urbain De Sivola – This Nick Williams trained juvenile unseated his rider on his racecourse debut at Market Rasen (good) in September. He was unlucky not to open his account on his next start at Chepstow (good) in October, where he held every chance until sprawling upon landing over the last flight of hurdles. On his penultimate start at Newbury (good to soft) in November he ran out a comfortable 10 length winner from the now rated 141 Ranjaan. The third and fourth home that day have won their subsequent starts. On his final start in a Novice Hurdle over 2m 1f at Taunton in February he had his limitations somewhat exposed in deadheating with the 119 rated Ifyouletmefinish (gave 2 pounds). Based upon this run it is hard to see him winning the Triumph.
Balder Succes – After making a winning British debut over 2m at Plumpton (heavy) in January, Alan King stated that he did not think that this once raced ex French recruit was a Triumph horse due to his in experience. In light of subsequent performances, he has had to change his mind. After a comfortable win in a three runner affair at Ascot (good to soft) over 2m towards the end of January, Balder Succes was thrown in against his elders in a Novice Hurdle over 2m at the same venue (good to soft) in February. As with his previous efforts he travelled and jumped like a very decent horse and was not extended in beating Captain Sunshine by 7 lengths with the well regarded Hazy Tom well beaten back in fourth. He is now officially rated 147 on the back of that success and justifiably holds a prominent position at the top of the Triumph market. Alan King expects him to improve further for better ground.
Pearl Swan – Made a winning debut for Paul Nicholl’s yard in a novice hurdle at Taunton (good to soft) in January where he travelled and jumped well in running out a 4 length winner. While this was an impressive debut it did not scream Triumph Hurdle winner. Nevertheless, connections decided to step him up in class by contesting a Grade 2 Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January. Held up under a very patience ride by Ruby Walsh, he came through late to beat Grumeti by a nose, but later lost the race in the Stewards room, having leaned into and slightly bumped the runner up on the run to the finish after jumping the last. The performance may slightly flatter Pearl Swan as he was the recipient of a great tactical ride by Ruby Walsh. Having said that, the Triumph will be run in a similar fashion to this race and Pearl Swan was giving Grumeti 3 pounds and easily comes out of the race as the best horse.
Verdict – Since the introduction of the Fred Winter seven years ago this has become a much easier race to analyse with all seven winners holding a prominent position in the market. Recent trends highlight the fact that this is still a test of stamina and it pays to focus on those horses that have run over 1m 4f on the level. Class is also important and recent winners have had an 80+ rating on the level. The Adonis has become an important trial with the last two winners, Zarkandar and Soldatino not making their racecourse appearance until winning this race. This is a fascinating renewal and a strong case could easily be made for up to a half dozen runners. The English look to hold the upper hand and I feel that Pearl Swan is capable of landing back to back renewals for Paul Nicholls. He looks a solid each way proposition at 8-1 in a race destined to be run to suit.
<span style="font-size: large;]County Hurdle
Raya Star (rated 143) – Alan King has always held this son of Milan in high regard and this belief has been borne out so far this year. He began the season by taking a Wetherby (good) Handicap at the end of October in the manner of a well handicapped horse off a mark of 120. He was raised twelve pounds for that effort and showed further improvement by taking third behind the classy Rock On Ruby in the Listed Gerry Feilden at Newbury (good to soft) in November. He was beaten 10 ½ lengths but pulled well clear of the fourth in a competitive field. He was raised another two pounds and went into the Ladbroke at Ascot (soft) in December with a leading chance. With Wayne Hutchison deputising for the injured Robert Thornton, he made steady headway from the back to take up the running approaching the last from where he stayed on well to hold the challenge of Rigidity by ½ length. He was raised five pounds for this effort but ran a great trial for the County on his final start in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (good to soft) where he finished 1 ¼ lengths third to the high class Zarkandar. It was a fine effort from this progressive young hurdler as the race was run very slowly and this would have been against Raya Star.
Olofi (rated 136) – Tom George has enjoyed a fine year and in Olofi he may have a horse capable of adding to that success. He began the year by finishing a 2 ½ length runner up to Brampour in the Grade 3 Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham (good to soft) in November. He finished very strongly up the hill and would have gone closer but for meeting some interference on the run down to the last. He was fitted with cheekpieces and a tongue tie for the first time and these certainly brought about improvement. The winner is now rated 162 after finishing third in the Grade 1 International Hurdle on his next start. Not surprising then that Olofi was sent off favourite for a Class B Handicap at Ascot (soft) in December off a six pound higher mark of 136 on his next start. He was travelling ominously well until fallen at the second last and must rank an unlucky loser. He attempted to make amends on his final start in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (good to soft) where he finished 4 ¾ lengths fifth to the high class Zarkandar. He was keen in the early part of the race where his cause was not helped by the rather pedestrian pace. It was still a good trial for the County and provided he gets the searching gallop he needs is more than capable of staking a claim.
Citizenship (rated 128) – Formerly in the care of Gordon Elliot, Citizenship was switxhed to Jessica Harrington at the start of the season. After finishing down the field in a Maiden Hurdle at Down Royal (soft) at the start of November he won a Novice Handicap at Punchestown (soft) later that month easily off a mark of 97. He showed further progressing by taken third behind Staying Article in the Class B Bar One Racing Handicap at Fairyhouse (soft to heavy) at the start of December off a mark of 112. That was followed by a ¾ length second off a mark of 114 to Cass Bligh at Leopardstown (good) over Christmas in a similar contest. With the stable in much better form he went into the ultra-competitive Boylesport.com Class B Hurdle at Leopardstown (good) in January with a leading chance. After a mistake at the first, he soon found himself well down the field and entering the straight there was a wall of horses in front of him. However, appreciating the better ground and showing a telling turn of foot he gradually mowed down the opposition to run out a 1 ¼ length winner. That was off a mark of 118 and the Irish handicapper has raised him 10 pounds for that effort. One gets the feeling that he is still ahead of the handicapper and as he encounters the better spring ground may well be up to winning another big handicap.
Get Me Out Of Here (rated 155) – This mercurial Jonjo O’Neill trained and JP McManus owned gelding has been the subject of a fair bit of controversy during the past couple of years but there is little doubt that Get Me Out Of Here is a very talented sort on a going day. He made a promising return at Haydock (good to soft) over 2m 4f in November where he finished a 6 length fifth to Any Given Day. He showed he retained plenty of ability on his next start in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle over 2m 5f at Cheltenham (good) in December where he was a clear 1 ¾ length second to the high class Oscar Whisky. His final start came in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle over 2m 1f off a mark of 151, where he finished an unlucky 1 ¼ length second to the high class Zarkandar. He won this handicap off 135 as a novice and where it not for been badly hampered 2 out by the fall of Darlan he may well have regained his crown under an inspired ride by the excellent 7 pound claimer Maurice Lenihan. His Festival record reads 22 and he should make a bold attempt to go one place better in this year’s County Hurdle off a 3 pound higher mark than last year, particularly if reunited with his talented claimer.
Empire Levant (rated 140) – This Alex Ferguson owned and Paul Nicholls trained runner was a facile win of a Class C Handicap at Newbury (good to soft) off a mark of 128. Connections decided to run him two days later at the same track in the Listed Gerry Feilden Hurdle where unsurprisingly he was sent off a warm order despite the strong line-up. He was able to avoid a penalty for his earlier success and so could run off 128. He travelled strongly to two out where he was pressed by his classy stablemate Rock On Ruby eventually going down by 6 lengths. The form of this race is strong with the winner just getting touched off in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle and the third Raya Star going on to win the Ladbroke on his next start. He was a bit disappointing on his final start in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (good to soft) where he finished well down the field. He was badly hampered by the fall of Darlan at the second last but looked to be held at the time.
Verdict – Top weights have a dismal record in this race and it pays to focus of those lightly weighted runners, where six of the last seven winners have come in the rating bracket of 128-135, with last year’s winner Final Approach (139) been the exception. Five year olds have won five of the last seven renewals while Willie Mullins and Paul Nichols have won five of the last eight renewals. The two best trials for this race have been the Totesport Hurdle at Newbury in February and the Betfair Hurdle at Leopardstown in January. Citizenship ran a great trial in the Betfair Hurdle and should he get in here will run off a light weight. He looks very classy and is the 12-1 each way selection.
<span style="font-size: large;]Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
Boston Bob – Formerly with Howard Johnson, this Graham Wiley owned son of Bob Back was switched to the Willie Mullins yard at the beginning of the year. He won his maiden hurdle at Navan (good to soft) in the manner of a 4-11 shot. He contested the Grade 1 Navan Hurdle on his latest start over 2m 4f in December where he stayed on strongly from 3 out to burst the Mount Benbulben bubble by 4 ½ lengths. His final start came in the Grade 2 Synergy Security Solutions over 2m 4f at Leopardstown (heavy) in January where he beat Lyreen Legend by 2 ½ lengths giving the runner up and a high class field 10 pounds in the process. As with his penultimate run, it was a case of the further he went the better he looked. Boston Bob looks to have stamina in abundance has a leading chance in the Albert Bartlett. My biggest concern is his ability to be as effective on quicker ground. It was noticeable that he hung left when encountering a sounder surface in a Hexham bumper last year.
Sea of Thunder – This Charles Byrnes trained son of Old Vic runs in the Gigginstown House colours is a half-brother to Jessie Harrington’s former high class 2miler Mac’s Joy. Sea of thunder was stepped up to three miles in the Albert Bartlett Grade 2 at Cheltenham (good) in December. He was in the process of running out a thoroughly convincing winner until taking a crashing fall at the last flight of hurdles. This run was far better than anything he had achieved to date and he obviously benefitted from the better ground and step up in trip. His final start came in the Grade 2 Synergy Security Solutions over 2m 4f at Leopardstown (heavy) in January where he was a credible 15 length fifth to the very high class Boston Bob (gave 10 pounds). Sea Of Thunder was never going to be suited by the very heavy going but it was important that he showed no ill effects from his Cheltenham experience.
Rocky Creek – This soft ground Irish point to point winner was purchased by the Stewart and Johnson families at the beginning of the year and sent to Paul Nicholls. He was well backed to make a winning start over hurdles at Exeter (good) over 2m 6f in November but was beaten ¼ length by Allthekingshorses. The winner has let the form down subsequently, but the third and fourth have gone on to flank the form well. He looked like he would benefit for a step up to three miles and this came to pass at Doncaster (good to soft) in January where he ran out a 3 ¾ length winner over the well regarded Gulinbursti (gave 4 pounds) in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett. He seemed to appreciate the softer ground here and quicker ground at the Festival would be a concern.
Brindisi Breeze - Lucinda Russell looks to have a proper horse on her hands in the shape of this winning Irish pointer. He made his debut under rules in a Musselburgh Bumper (good) in November where he was beating a head after pulling very hard throughout the first half of the race. He was fortunate to make a winning debut over hurdles at Kelso (soft) over 2m7f in December as he looked booked for second until Netminder (impressive winner on next start) made an awful mistake at the last and lost all chance. As with his Bumper run Brindisi Breeze was very keen early on while tracking the leaders. Connections decided to employ frontrunning tactics for his penultimate start at Newcastle (soft) over 3m in January. Brindisi Breeze relished the opportunity of making his own pace and he ran out a very impressive 13 length winner. He continued on an upward curve by taking the Grade 2 Prestige Novice Hurdle at Haydock (heavy) in February by 12 lengths from Harry Topper with some well regarded types strung out behind. This booked his ticket for the Albert Bartlett where he must have a leading chance. He has benefitted enormously from front running tactics which has helped him to settle better and which suits his fluent hurdling technique. The biggest concern for his supporters is how he will handle the quicker ground but he was unfortunate not to make a winning debut on such ground in November.
Mount Benbulben – After been purchased by Barry Connell, Mount Benbulben was moved to Gordon Elliot’s yard. This high class bumper horse made a rather in auspicious start to his hurdling career when slipping up on the level at Galway in October. He showed no ill effects of that experience by opening his account on his next start over 2m 2f at Thurles (soft/heavy) in November where he readily accounted for Golanbrook by 2 ½ lengths. He was stepped up to Grade 2 company for his next start in the Monksfield Hurdle over 2m 4f at Navan (soft/heavy) towards the end of November where he found plenty for pressure to wear down the gallant Rebel Fitz (gave 3 pounds) by 1 ½ lengths. He was sent off the 5-6f to land the Grade 1 Navan Novice Hurdle on his final start over 2m 4f at Navan (soft/heavy) in December. In a change of tactics, connections decided to make all and Mount Benbulben jumped out to his right throughout, a tendency that was not evident on his penultimate start. He had no answer to the very high class Boston Bob once tackled over the last, eventually trailing in 4 ½ lengths behind that rival. One has to believe that Mount Benbulben did not show his true form in this race and that a reversion to hold up tactics will see him in a much better light. Of more pressing concern is the fact that the only time he has run on ground described better than soft he was beaten into fourth in a bumper, thus his ability to handle a quicker surface must be taking on trust.
Verdict –Six of the last seven winners had won at the track beforehand, highlighting the importance of course form to this test. Not surprising then that the two best trials for this race have been the 2m 5f race at the November Paddy Power meeting (won this year by Fingal Bay) and the 3m race at the December meeting (won by Deireadh Re but Sea of Thunder fell at last with race won).
Boston Bob looks banker material at 5-1 if turning up here in preference to the Neptune. Any doubts about his ability to handle this quicker ground are offset by the step up in trip.
<span style="font-size: large;]Cheltenham Gold Cup
Long Run – Last year’s King George and Gold Cup heroine started this year’s campaign by suffering an 8 length defeat to a very fit Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (good to soft) in November. This defeat was not totally unexpected as he was beaten off a mark of 158 in the previous year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup and was expected to improve measurably for the run. He surrendered his King George crown to Kauto Star at Kempton (good to soft) in December in a slowly run race where the winner was allowed to dictate matters from the front. Long run was doing all his best work at the end and in all probability would have won well over an extra couple of furlongs. In last year’s Gold Cup he looked outpaced at the three mile mark but stayed on relentlessly and passed the older brigade to record an emphatic victory. He returned to winning ways on his final start in the Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury (good to soft) in February where he beat Burton Port (received 10 pounds) by ½ length. He jumped really well throughout off a good pace set by The Giant Bolster with his Jockey only having to get serious with the winner after the last. It was an ideal prep for the Gold Cup and this performance confirmed his status as the one to beat in the Gold Cup especially in a year where genuine challengers look thin enough on the ground.
Kauto Star – The greatest staying chaser of his generation has returned to something like his best form this year at the age of 11/rising 12. He took a crashing fall in the 2010 Gold Cup from which he was lucky to survive and this in part may explain some of his below par efforts during the 2011 season. Connections had him cherry ripe for his return in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (good to soft) and employing front running tactics ran out a convincing 8 length winner from Long Run. He showed his ability to maintain that level of performance when recapturing the King George at Kempton (good to soft) in December for his younger foe. Again he was ridden in the vanguard and his impeccable jumping allowed him to steal a march on Long Run, the pair 17 lengths clear of the third home Captain Chris. He will definitely run his race in the Gold Cup but has little chance of beaten Long Run over the extra couple of furlongs in the Gold Cup. Looks to have place prospects at best.
Burton Port - Nicky Henderson’s talented and admirable chaser began last season by finishing 1 ¼ lengths behind Diamond Harry (received 1 pound) in the Hennessy at Newbury. Unfortunately he picked up a tendon injury in that race and was put away for the season thereafter. He made a belated seasonal return in the Grade 2 Denman Chase over 3m at Newbury (good to soft) in February where he was a fast finishing ½ length runner up to his very high class stable mate Long Run (gave 10 pounds). He was a cracking effort and evidence that his ability was still intact. Post-race connections stated that his homework was superior to anything he done hitherto. He booked his place in the Gold Cup with this performance where the extra 2 ½ furlongs will be to his advantage. In addition he will have Barry Geraghty aboard which is a considerable plus. His last five runs have been at Graded level where his form figures read 12122. He will have to improve again to challenge Long Run but is open to that kind of improvement, Barry Geraghty remarking that he took a big blow twice in the race.
Weird Al – Formerly trained by Ian Williams he switched to Donald McCain’s yard at the beginning of the year after suffering a season to forget during 2010/2011. He showed that he retained plenty of the ability he had displayed during his Novice Chase campaign of 2009/2010 when winning the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby (good) in October on his debut for his new yard, comfortably beating Time For Rupert by 3 ½ lengths. He stepped up to Grade 1 company for his latest run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (good to soft) in November. He ran a creditable race in finishing a 10 length third to Kauto Star. He probably ran slightly flat here after his earlier effort in the Charlie Hall. Connections feel that he is a much better horse fresh and with that in mind has been put away for the Gold Cup in March. He has a good record at the track with two victories from three runs and will appreciate the better spring ground.
Quel Esprit – This Willie Mullins trained runner had a novice chase career to forget last year falling twice and unseating his rider on his final start. Despite looking exceeding well handicapped, connections declined the opportunity to exploit what appeared on the face of it a very workable mark in order to pitch him in at the highest level for his seasonal debut. This was in the Grade 1 Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown (good to soft) in February. He was given an uncontested lead which allowed him to get into a nice jumping rhythm, running out a 2 length winner. He looked to be tiring over the last and in all honesty it was the poorest renewal of this great race in a very long time with the top rated horse China Rock only rated 154. The fact that the 132 rated 11yo Treacle was only beaten 7 ½ lengths leaves the impression that this race was well below Grade 1 standard.
Diamond Harry – Nick Williams charge was an ultra impressive winner of last year’s Hennessy off a mark of 152. He unfortunately missed the rest of the year after picking up a slight tendon injury in the run up to last year’s Festival. He made his eagerly awaited return in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (good to soft) in November but finished 18 lengths in arrears of Kauto Star. He possibly paid the penalty for taken on the winner up front. He did not fare much better in his penultimate start in the Grade 2 Argento Chase at Cheltenham in January. After travelling well to 4 out he soon beat a retreat, ultimately trailing in a well beaten fifth. Noel Fehily identified an issue with Diamond Harry’s breathing post race and he was sent for a corrective wind operation. There is a school of thought that Diamond Harry does not act around Cheltenham. However his record at the track is quite respectable with form figures of 113P5. Burton Port is being identified as a genuine contender for the Gold Cup but one must remember that Diamond Harry gave him over a stone and a comfortable 2 ½ length beating in the 2009/2010 Fixed Brush Hurdle. Should the wind operation prove effective there will be much worse 40-1 chances.
Midnight Chase – This Neil Mulholland has become something of a peoples champion where his guts and never say die attitude as endeared him to the racing public. He won the first Grade 2 of his remarkably consistent career by capturing the Argento Chase at Cheltenham (good to soft) in January by 2 ½ lengths from Tidal Bay. On roads now lead to a second tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup and one would not be surprised to see this 10yo run much better than his fifth place finish last year. His course record his simply phenomenal 2311151. The key to this son of Midnight Legend is the ability to dominate from the front off a sound surface, something he could not do this last year with so many prominent runners in the field. It is a different case this time round and one could easily see him getting the race run to suit.
Synchronised – After an encouraging third in the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock (good to soft) in November, this Jonjo O’ Neill trained runner propelled himself into the Gold Cup picture with success in the Grade 1 Lexus Chase at Leopardstown (good) in December where he ran out a very convincing 8 ½ length winner from Rubi Light. Prior to this run Synchronised would have been considered more of a mud lark who excels over extreme distances. It is hard to envisage that he has improved at the age of 9 and in all likelihood this result told us more about the dearth of talent in the Irish staying division. Synchronised missed his intended engagement in the Hennessey at Leopardstown in February as connections felt he was still not over his Christmas exertions. It is hard to make a strong case for him winning the Gold Cup as it is not difficult to see him getting outpaced where his lack of fluency over his fences does not help his cause. At best I could see him possibly staying on to grab a place.
Summary – Midnight Chase and Quel Esprit should ensure a generous gallop which will play to the strengths of Long Run. Provided he puts in an error free round he is the probable winner but he will never be a betting proposition for me at short prices due to his jockey. Should Grand Crus turn up here I would have no problem in selecting him at 7-1. I also can’t resist backing Diamond Harry at 40-1 each way in the hope that his wind operation allows him to show his true capabilities.
<span style="font-size: large;]Martin Pipe Conditionals Hurdle
Bourne (rated 135) – Formerly trained on the flat by Luca Cumani where he was rated 97, Bourne was switched to Donal McCain at the beginning of the year to embark on a hurdling career. He made a promising start in a Novice Hurdle over 2m 1f at Catterick (soft) in October, beating Into Wain (winner on next two starts) by ¾ lengths. After a couple of disappointing efforts at Musselburgh and Newcastle he showed huge improvement over 2m 4f in a Class B Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (good to soft) in February off a mark of 125 where he made relentless late progress to run out a 3 ½ length winner over the very useful Smad Place with the Lanzarote winner Swincombe Flame back in third. As with his prior runs his hurdling was less than perfect but he relished the big field and fast pace. This makes him well equipped to run well at the Festival. The handicapper has raised him 10 pounds to 135. He still looks well handicapped in comparison to his flat rating.
Ted Spread (rated135) – Formerly in the care of Mark Tompkins where he was rated 104 and a group winner on the flat, he was switched to Paul Nicholls at the start of the year to begin a hurdling career. He was a rather disappointing 13 length fourth on his debut at Ascot (good) in November behind Broadbackbob. However the form of this race has been well advertised since by the winner and runner up Cinders And Ashes. He was fancied to make amends on his next start at Taunton (good to soft) in December but finished a 14 length second to the high class juvenile hurdler Grumeti (received 13 pounds). He got off the mark at the third time of asking with a smooth 7 length success over Pascha Bere in a Class C Handicap at Taunton (good to soft) off a mark of 120 at the end of January. He was fitted with a first time tongue tie and this certainly contributed to this much improved effort. The handicapper hit him with a 15 pound rise for this win but he still looks very well handicapped in comparison to his flat rating. All his wins have been of sharp flat tracks and so the galloping undulations of Cheltenham may not be to his liking.
Verdict – Like the Kim Muir this race has been upgraded to a 0-145 race from 0-140. Two of the last three renewals have been won by second season hurdlers who have demonstrated an ability to handle a big field handicap. Nicky Henderson has a good record in the race with one winner and many placed efforts. David Pipe has yet to win the race but Pond House runners have started favourites in two out of the last three renewals and his runners automatically command respect in a race named after his father. Bourne looks well handicapped and will have the assistance of the very capable Henry Brooke in the saddle. At 12-1 each way he is selected to provide compensation for the McCain yard after Son Of Flicka’s defeat in this very race last year. Should Citizenship show up here I would also back him.
<span style="font-size: large;]Grand Annual
Kid Cassidy (rated144) – Nicky Henderson will be hoping that this JP McManus owned runner will help him land the race named after his late father Johnny. Kid Cassidy was a classy novice hurdler last season where he was rated 144. He was sent off long odds on for his chasing debut at Lingfield (good) in November over the minimum trip where he was 18 lengths clear until falling 3 out. He made amends on his next start at Ludlow (good to soft) in January where he won by 31 lengths hard hell. A feature of both these runs was how free and keen going Kid Cassidy was which necessitated front running tactics and a departure from how he raced over hurdles. It was the very same on his final start a week later at Doncaster (good to soft) where he readily cast aside the challenge of the very decent Kumbeshwar by 3 ¾ lengths, he idled somewhat on the run in and so was value for a bit more that the official winning margin. All his runs to date have been in small fields and he may be in his element in a much bigger field like the Grand Annual where he may also get a lead into the race. Kid Cassidy possesses a huge engine and if he can settle better and be more consistent in his fencing he looks capable of landing a big prize in not so distant future.
Astracad (rated 145) – Nigel Twiston Davis won the 2010 Grand Annual with Pigeon Island and has another leading contender on his hands in the shape of Astracad who runs in the same colours. Astracad made a winning chasing debut at Perth (good to soft) over 2m 5f in September. He could only finish third in a four runner affair on his next start at Aintree (good) in October, finishing 13 ½ lengths behind the high class Champion Court (received 5 pounds). His sights were raised considerably on his next start at Cheltenham (good to soft) over 2m where he contested the Grade 2 Independent Newspaper Novice Chase. He was only beaten 7 lengths by the high class Al Ferof with a distance back to the third. He showed his liking for course and distance on his final start when taking the Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap (good) named in memory of his owner’s late wife, off a mark of 138. The race looked in safe keeping after taking a commanding lead after the second last but he was headed after the last but rallied gamely to prevail by a head from Rileyev. I think this is a serious piece of form as he was giving the runner up 11 pounds and back in third there was another well handicapped sort in Martin Keighley’s Havingotascoobydo.
Kumbeshwar (rated 144) – Alan King won the 2009 Grand Annual with the novice Oh Crick and has another likely sort in this Max McNeill owned runner. Kumbeshwar jumped well in making a winning debut over fences at Hereford (good to soft) in November. He stepped up to Grade 2 level on his next start at Ascot (soft) over 2m 3f and was a respectable 11 length runner up to Zaynar. He would have finished much closer but for clouting the 11th fence. After justifying long odds on in a three runner affair at Plumpton (heavy) he then cross swords with the high menorah at Kempton (good) in January back over the minimum trip. After a couple of bad blunders he finished a staying on 3 ¾ length behind the winner. On his final start in Grade 2 Lightning Novices Chase at Doncaster (good to soft) he could never land a blow on the frontrunning Kid Cassidy. He was fitted with first time cheekpieces and his jumping was much assured. One gets the impression that Kumbeshwar will be more at home in a bigger field. He was just touched off in the Fred Winter at last year’s Festival and looks capable of running a huge race race in the Grand Annual off his mark of 144. Alan King has stated that he will be fitted with first time blinkers for this assignment.
Toubab (rated 143) – This classy novice hurdler had his attention switched to fences by his trainer Paul Nicholls at the start of the season. He made a promising start over 2m at Cheltenham (good to firm) in October where he finished a ¾ length runner up to Lancetto. He looked all over the winner jumping the last but wilted up the hill possibly due to a lack of fitness or a dislike to the stiff uphill nature of the track. He was odds on to make amends over 2m at Haydock (good) in November but fell three out when travelling best. He finally got off the mark on his final start over 2m at Sandown (good) in February where he justified odds on favouritism with the minimum of fuss. That third run was needed to qualify him for the Grand Annual. The frantic pace of this race will suit this smooth traveller but whether his jumping is experienced enough for a test like this is a genuine concern.
De Boitron (rated 135) – When it comes to handicaps at the Festival few trainers command more respect than Ferdy Murphy. De Boitron was laid out for this race last year and finished an 11 ½ length fourth to Oiseau De Nuit off a mark of 137. De Boitron started the year on a mark of 146 and after running down the field in three subsequent starts his mark fell to 133. On his final start this year at Musselburgh (good to soft) in February he was a real eyecatcher. Held up out the back he made late headway without ever threathening the well backed winner Tara Royal to finish a 4 ¾ length fourth. De Boitron needs decent ground to be seen at his best and interestingly his last four racecourse wins have come this side of Christmas with his last three coming in March/April. He now looks dangerously well handicapped on the best of his form and on a track that he has performed well on in the past must have a decent chance of extended his trainer’s great record in Festival handicaps.
Verdict – Much like the County Hurdle, this is a race where it pays to avoid the top weights and focus on those lightly weighted. In fact, nine of the last eleven winners fell into the rating bracket of 129-134. Novices have a good record in this race with three of the last five winners meeting this trend. Nicky Henderson runners command respect with the race named in honour of his father. Kid Cassidy is selected at 12-1 each way to end the Festival on a winning note for Nicky Henderson in a race named after his late father. I suspect that Kid Cassidy would have being campaigned with the Arkle in mind but for the presence of Sprinter Sacre. He looks to have a very bright future and can hopefully take this before going on to achieve greater things next season.
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I see the voice put up Shadow Catcher for the Triumph and Sir Des Champs for the RSA this morning
Just had my second bet for the festival, Penny Max e/w (4 places) for the JLT Handicap Chase at 20/1.
If thats the lavelle horse he is a likely NR. They have stated he will only run if going is soft.
NRNB.
Your preview is excellent sir, i haven’t got around to finishing it yet.
My man in on the spot says it is coming down in stair rods at Cheltenham this afternoon. Up to now it had been bone dry, one of the driest springs he can ever remember.
I’ve heard rumours William Hill will be chalking up Hurricane Fly at 5/4 tomorrow, I’d expect them to be knocked over if that is true, so keep you eyes open for that.
probably to a max 100 per customer though