Cheltenham Day 1
1.30 Supreme Novices – A much more competitive and open renewal, than had appeared to be the case a few weeks ago. Facile Vega was a short price favourite since winning the Champion Bumper at last year’s Festival. After winning his maiden without fuss, he fairly blotted his copybook with a dismal run at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF). Taking on for the lead by High Definition, he ran with the choke out and had nothing left at the business end. He was subsequently found to be lame. Plenty of excuses have been made for this run, but it was very disappointing regardless. He now finds himself favourite in the back of sustained support in the past couple of weeks.
Marine Nationale won the Grade 1 Royal Bond on his last start. This was run on unsuitably soft ground and he has since been kept fresh for the Spring Festivals. Held in the highest regard by owner/trainer Barry Connell, he is the horse with the most potential in the race. If there is a Champion Hurdle horse lurking, it is Marine Nationale.
Of the others, Rare Edition put up an impressive display at Kempton at Christmas but ran below standard at Huntingdon on his final start. He scoped poorly afterwards. He may represent the best value of the outsiders.
2**.05 Arkle** – A small but very select field where a couple of big bubbles are going to burst. Jonbon has done nothing wrong all year. His jumping is electric and easily his best asset. His best display came in the Henry VIII at Sandown. He ran moderately on his last start at Warwick, but that was just a prep for this day and he is better judged on what he achieved at Sandown in early December. His main challenge comes from the Willie Mullins duo of El Fabiolo and Dysart Dynamo. The latter will set a decent gallop and this will allow Jonbon to get a nice tow into the race and may well bring out significant improvement. El Fabiolo win at the DRF represents the single best piece of form. However, he always threatens to make a mistake and over the minimum trip, that could be his undoing.
2.50 Ultima – The Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle represents the strongest form on view. Into Overdrive was second with Happygolucky third. Into Overdrive won the Rowland Meyrick on next start off 142. In second was Sounds Russian (now rated 161), who has run with credit in graded company since. Into Overdrive now runs off 147 and there could still be plenty of juice left in that mark.
Happygolucky was second in this race a couple of years ago off 147. He runs here off 152 and its easy to see him being competitive without actually winning off this new mark.
Threeunderthrufive has had a lot of bad luck this year. He unseated his rider at the first fence at the Coral Cup at Newbury in November and then go bogged down in heavy ground at Warwick on his final start. He travelled well for much of this race. I feel that he is well treated off 150 and has run well a couple times on the old course at Cheltenham. He would be a popular winner for Max McNeill who sponsors the race.
3.30 Champion Hurdle – Impossible to oppose Constitution Hill.
4.10 Mare Hurdle – One of the races of the festival. Honeysuckle would be an emotional win for connections but she looks to be regressive. Epatante has run into the back of Constitution Hill on a couple of occasions this year. It is difficult to gauge whether she has regressed or improved. She put up her career best in winning the Aintree Hurdle last year over 2m 4f. On that evidence alone, she is solid option. Echoes in Rain looks much better this year and is very classy but she failed to win the race last year and this is a much stronger renewal. Brandy Love and Love Envoi represent the up and coming, but they have a ways to go to show that they are at the standard of Epatante.
4.50 Boodles – Paul Nicholls has a decent record in this and runs Afadil. He looked progressive on his first two runs , before running below standard on his last start. This probably came too soon and he needed to run in order to qualify for this race. A mark of 123 could greatly underestimate the ceiling of his ability.
Sir Allen won his last start at Naas, a race that has thrown up three of the last four winners of this race. He got within 5 lengths of Blood Destiny on his first start at Cork, with the winner value for a lot more. Still this represents good form and he has plenty of experience for a race like the boodles, having come off the flat.
Takao represents JP McManus and could go off a short favourite. His run at DRF behind Gala Marceau and Lossiemouth represents the best form. A mark of 130 looks lenient but having to shoulder top weight might catch him out.
5.30 – National Hunt Chase – Gaillard Du Mesnil is the class horse in the race. With a clear round, it’s very difficult to see him getting beaten.
