1.30 Triumph Hurdle – The UK challenge looks weak so best to focus on the Irish horses. Willie Mullins looks to have a stranglehold on this race. I’d fancy Lossiemouth, who runs in the Rich Ricci colours. She was a noticeable drifter on her debut in this country, but could not have been more impressive. She may just be one of those horses that keeps their best for the track. She lost her unbeaten record at DRF, but probably enhanced her claims. Everything that could go wrong, did, and yet she was only beaten a couple of lengths by her stablemate, Gala Marceau. Blood Destiny has looked really impressive also in his couple of outings. There is just more substance to the form of Lossiemouth and a gelding would have to be exceptional to give her seven pounds and a beating.
2.05 County Hurdle – Dan Skelton has a great record in this race. West Cork had looked like a year long plot for this race, but surprisingly was not entered. That in itself was a nod in the direction of stablemate, Pembroke who runs here off 136. He was second in a Grade 2 over this course on Trials Day but found the 2m 4f trip just too taxing. He travelled like much the best horse for most of that race and a return to 2m and a fast run pace should be right up his street. Novices have gone well in this race as it’s obviously difficult for the handicapper to get a handle on their ability.
I also think Colonel Mustard of the Lorna Fowler yard must go close. He was third in this race last year off 140. The form of last year’s County is strong, with Stateman now rated 167 and second favourite for the Champion Hurdle. He has not taken to fences and returned to the smaller obstacles at Kelso, finishing second in the Morebattle hurdle. He runs here off 145 and he should be competitive off that mark, but may be vulnerable to a young improver like Pembroke.
2.50 Albert Bartlett – A minefield but I’ve come down (eventually) on the side of Henry De Bromhead’s Hiddenvalley Lake. He was very impressive on his penultimate start at Cork where he stayed on strongly to beat Cool Survivor by 8 lengths. He lost out to stablemate Monty’s Pass on his final start at Clonmel, where he had to give a penalty away and make his own running. A return to earlier tactics in this race should see him turn the form around and I don’t see many finishing better than him up the Cheltenham Hill.
3.30 Gold Cup – The blue riband event of the week and the best renewal for many a year. Last year’s winner, A Plus Tard has had a disappointing campaign. He was well brushed aside in the Betfair Chase in November and has not run since. The yard have had a torrid time this Winter with many horses running below par. He was a fantastic winner last year, but it’s hard to fancy him on the back of what has transpired this year.
Galopin De Champ is the main Irish hope. An unlucky loser in the Turners last year, he has danced every dance this year. Any stamina doubts were seemingly answered at the DRF. For all that he looks a superstar, there is just a nagging doubt. He has not actually beaten any very good horses yet, and certainly none as good as some he will face here. For me, the jury is still out until he actually does it.
The single best piece of form for this race is the King George from this year, where Bravemansgame ran out a hugely impressive winner. In the process, he answer some lingering concerns from his novice campaign. He is the best jumper in the field and that is a huge asset. We know he stays and he has been purposely kept fresh for this assignment. Personally, I would have him much shorter and to me is the likeliest winner.
Conflated, Noble Yeats, Sattler and Protektorat all have claims, but I will side with Paul Nicholl’s charge.
4.50 Mares Chase – The fact that last year’s winner Elimay is available at 33s speaks volumes of how much stronger this year’s renewal is. The market is heading by the Irish duo, Allegorie De Vassy and Impervious. The latter is the more assured jumper but the former is probably the classier of the two. In a race that looks a match, I think the Rich Ricci mare will take a lot of beating, provided there is no mishaps. There may be a question mark as to whether Impervious truly stays this trip.
5.30 – Martin Pipe – This brings the curtain down on another Festival. The Irish have a stranglehold on this race and I’m going to side with Gordon Elliott’s Imagine. All starts have been over the minimum trip but has shaped as if this step up in trip will suit. He was entered in the Lawlors of Naas over this trip at the start of January. Elliott always targets this race due to close association with Martin Pipe.
