Weapons Amnesty out again today Runt - any word for him down your way?
Not that I have heard. I was taking to the lad who keeps him down our way when he’s not in training in the pub last week and he mentioned nothing about Aintree and he’d usually let me know if he had any decent chances coming up. He had be lined up for Cheltenham all year so he might find it difficult to peak to that level again today.
Sound thanks. Was out for a few pints in a horsey pub last night and they were talking about him having a savage chance. Am always wary of backing horses in Aintree who’ve won in Cheltenham. He’s been good to me this year already so I might just hold off and leave him be.
I Finally deleted cheltenham off the sky plus today so I said I’d throw up the five horses I took out of the handicaps and make some predictions for them.
Cobra De Mai was a fast finishing 6th in the ultima handicap and looks well handicapped off 142. On the balance Of his form he probably wouldn’t want it too soft. That has me thinking that maybe the 2021 Scottish National Over three a half miles would be his ideal trip. I can’t see him winning a competitive handicap over a shorter trip.
One of the most obvious eye catchers for me was five o clock for Willie Mullins and rich ricci In the Martin pipe. The Martin pipe is a messy race but very good horses tend to run in it. Don poli, sir des champs, sir du berlais etc. I think this fella could be a very good staying chaser. In fact I bet Willie will aim this fella at the Irish National in 2021. He was outpaced in the Martin pipe and lost his position but started staying on again towards the end under Conor mcnamara. I’d say the heavier the ground the better as well. Willie won the Irish National with a novice last year owned by ricci and I’d be very confident this lad can repeat the trick.
Doctor Duffy was laid out for the pertemps this year and the fact Charles still brought him over after not getting qualified for the shorter distance race tells you he thinks he’s very good. His irish form is decent with black tears but he badly needs the three miles. He wouldn’t want it too soft either. I think he’ll be aimed at the pertemps next year and could follow in sir du berlais footsteps of running in the Martin Pipe before winning the pertemps. Charles horses are usually tough in a finish and that’s want you need for the pertemps. Obviously there’s a couple of valuable handicaps over three miles he could Run in at leopardstown too. Definitely one to keep on side over three miles.
Flash the steal is another horse I’ve followed with interest after winning in Chepstow and he ran well in the Martin pipe. The form of that race has worked out well. I’m not sure how well the Skelton’s horse ran during the week but I took plenty of encouragement from his run. He’s actually a half brother to doctor Duffy but seems to handle soft ground fine. Whether he’s cheltenham festival winning material I’m not sure but I’d see him being out early next season and getting a handicap mark over fences. Maybe even a few runs in August/September. He runs well fresh and could take home one of those 2 and half mile handicaps like the old paddy power or the one that’s run New Year’s Day. The caspian caviar isn’t it. Obviously he could be aimed at the festival plate or the novice handicap as well.
My final horse from the handicaps To follow was lethal steps. He didn’t run that well as a 50/1 shot in the county hurdle Over two miles but his previous run versus doctor Duffy and black tears has worked really well and that was over 2 miles 6 in navan. Where he was staying on well. He was bought by cheveley park for 300k which seems really odd but has now been switched to some syndicate of Gordon’s. Any three mile hurdle on good ground will be on his radar. He is rated 133 in England but only 126 in Ireland. I’d imagine all those races Tracy’s enniscorty won this season will be on his agenda. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
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I find the grade ones tougher to figure out and with no aintree, ayr, Fairyhouse and punchestown it’ll be even tougher. Two horses I liked going forward as handicappers are tornado flyer of willies. I’ve no idea what this lad was doing in the two and a half race as all he does is stay. There was some gamble on him from 22s to 10s as well. I was thinking maybe the Irish national or Galway plate. He’s definitely worth keeping an eye on going forward. From three out to the finish he ran on well. He could be under estimated off 149. The second is fairly dark.
Lieutenant Rocco was a 33/1 no hoper in the potatoe race for Colin tizzard but ran really well for a long way. Given how badly tizzards horses ran during the week I’d mark his run up more and off 139 he could run up a sequence off staying handicap wins. There’s races at aintree and haydock that would suit in the autumn. As a five year old who made his on course debut in January the three mile slog at the festival is really tough so while he was pulled for a finish I wouldn’t Hold it against him. It was a good run for a long way against proper grade one horses with more experience Paisley and the stayers winner this year were both well beaten in race before going on to better things. Like the Martin pipe it’s a race that produces much more winners and often at a bigger price than you’d expect.
Just watched his rsa win after Eddie o Leary said he was the best horse they ever had. Real pity for Charles.
Joe chambers giving five o clock a big mention on twitter.
Doctor Duffy already knocked up a few wins for my 5 to follow.
Tomorrow you mean 
Which reminds me, I must book my annual leave for it 
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Some miserable bastard took the 20s on the bosses Oscar. I think he’s potentially a grade one horse. Anything around 150 and he’ll be tough to beat imo.
He runs in the big handicap hurdle in Navan on Saturday
Oh well maybe that’s a Worry so. Gordon will have five or six lined up for these races but I really really like him. 14s is short though when he’s not qualified.
Ngolo - Supreme 25/1. Don’t know how he’s nearly 4 times the price of Ballyadam. Beats him in a strongly run race.
It’ll be interesting to see how ballyadam and ferny hollow are split up presuming chevely Park don’t run both against each other.
I thought they might step him up to ballymore. He was the eyecatcher in Royal Bond.
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I was thinking about that aswell if Gordon and Willie had the same race in mind what would happen but Gordon wants to go Supreme with Ballyadam and Ruby said that it’s very likely Ferny will go for the Ballymore and Appreciate It for the Albert Bartlett.
It’s only 1st December though
He finished strong but was also fighting for his head at the start. A good strong gallop could be the making of him. Maybe the county also and do a Saint Roi.
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We’ll see but invariably willies best novice tends to run in the supreme.
I’m not sure appreciate is much good tbh we’ll see. Chevely will have their own ideas. Gordon seems to think ballyadam is a champion hurdle horse and the ballymore tends to suit those types a little bit more.
He looks a three miler to me on the basis of his Navan run. I’m not sure what the form in Fairyhouse is worth. Ballyadam is a slight horse but surely would be better in a stronger gallop too.
