Cheltenham-Early thoughts

@fenwaypark sage star given a mark off 143. There’s definitely been a policy change.

That is still too high. He won a shocking Challow.

Stage Star won the Challow at Newbury.

The Tolworth is this weekend. Constitution Hill is entered up for that.

1 Like

Yep.

Would anyone back either of the Nicky pair over Sir Gerhard?

Just seen entries for Tolworth. Shocking field.

No for the simple fact willie will gun him to win the supreme where as nicky will be take it or leave it.

I don’t think Nickie would take or leave a supreme novice hurdle mate.

Well he got sprinter beaten in one, Buveur dair was 3rd in altiors one and shishkin just got up in a line. He’s gotten other decent horses beaten too over the years. Shiskin was probably lucky for a finish to win and it was just his class that got him over the line.

There’s no way imo he’ll have one as primed as willie or Gordon.

Gordon has only ever won it once because Giggi didn’t really give a fuck about novice hurdles. Nicky Henderson wouldn’t leave a grade 1 novice behind him. they aren’t easy got mate. If the horse is there he’ll win it.

1 Like

I’d disagree. He tends to leave them very inexperienced for the the novice races and they’ll come against horses from Gordon’s and Willies who are experienced and possibly a year older.

He’ll avoid any sort of learning experience with Jonbon pre the festival.

he is gentler with his horses, but that’s just his methodology. He isn’t doing it to take or leave a supreme after him.

He has won as many as Willie in the last 5 or 6 years. He is second behind Willie in the trainers list for the race. He won’t just take or leave a supreme.

I’d disagree strongly. If he really wanted to win the novice hurdles he’s be far tougher on his horses. He campaigns them as lightly as possible.

He’ll mind Jonbon until he’ll two miles chasing. He isn’t going to have him all out for the supreme.

that makes no sense. at all. every horse is different. Altior had 7 runs before he won his Supreme.

It makes perfect sense to me.

Altior was an outlier as he’d nearly two seasons in bumpers. He was also one of the best horses off recent times but he was also very experienced.

Jonbon and constitutional hill will be far less experienced. C.H will be a year younger and will probably only have two starts on the track. I think altior had 6 or 7 starts before the supreme.

nah mate, you’re not making any sense at all

jonbon is 5, two years younger than Sir Gerhard and has raced only 2 times less than him. He is campaigned almost perfectly for a supreme novice.

So all the evidence against your points are outliers?

I’d disagree strongly. Two years gives sir Gerhard a huge advantage. Gordon won’t have spared him to win a champion bumper which is a very tough race to run and win and willie will have him primed to the max for March.

Nicky will just bring Jonbon a long slowly. He’ll give him possibly another run in an egg and spoon race. You won’t see the best of him in till he’s chasing.

like almost every novice ever?

If you flipped it and said Willie would burn a good one to win a novice I’d tend to agree with you more.

1 Like

Sure that’s exactly what I am saying but you’ve been trying to disagree with me for the last half an hour.

No hope nicky is going to train Jonbon like willie will train sir Gerhard or Gordon three stripe life or mighty potter.

Santini was beaten in his novice hurdle and a novice chase before a neck second in the gold cup.