Cheltenham Festival Thread

5.00 Each-Way - Single Internet 2 1:40 JEWSON NOVICESā€™ HANDICAP CHASE 2m 5f
Merry Cowboy
40 - 1 Pending
5.00 Each-Way - Single Internet 2 5:15 KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP Hā€™CAP CHASE 3m 1 1/2f
Joes Edge
18 - 1 Pending
4.00 To Win - Single Internet 1 4:40 PERTEMPS FINAL Hā€™CAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) 3m
Counting House
20 - 1 Pending
4.00 To Win - Single Internet 1 4:40 PERTEMPS FINAL Hā€™CAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) 3m
Dancing Tornado
10 - 1 Pending
3.00 Each-Way - Single Internet 2 4:05 RACING POST PLATE HANDICAP
Boychuk 25 - 1 Pending
12/03/2008 1.00 To Win - Yankee Internet 11 1:05 BALLYMORE NOVICESā€™ HURDLE
5.00 Each-Way - Single Internet 2 12:30 SIR. PETER Oā€™SULLEVAN NH CHASE 4m
Pass It On
33 - 1 Pending
5.00 Each-Way - Single Internet 2 12:30 SIR. PETER Oā€™SULLEVAN NH CHASE 4m
Dreux
66 - 1 Pending
07/03/2008 5.00 To Win - Single Internet 1 1:40 CORAL CUP HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f
Song Of Songs
12 - 1 Pending
7.50 To Win - Single Internet 1 1:05 ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE CHASE 3m 1/2f
Silverburn
13 - 2 Pending

Here are my badly copied choices for today. Silverburn and Voy por feature in a few Yankees too so theyā€™re the ones I really want. Massive outlay in cash and dreams today. Picked two in some of the big fields. Pointless, really but who knows, and thatā€™s the beauty.

Good luck punters.

Decent day for me:

3 winners in Inglis Drever, Master Minded and Cousin Vinny.

A place for Noir et Vert and Miko de Beauchene.

Pity Dreux and Schindlerā€™s Hunt couldnā€™t stay on for places but a profitable day all the same.

Following on from the moderate successes of Thursday my selections for tomorrow are:

Sweet Kiln 7/2
Trafford Lad 8/1
Naid Du Misselot 9/1 (Ladbrokes)
Celestial Halo 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
Lodge Lane 6/1
Gold Cup - Denman is 2/1 with Ladbrokes and 13/8 with PP. Thatā€™s a huge difference is it not?
Agus A Vic 9/2
Enlightenment 10/1
Mountain 40/1 (Ladbrokes) and an interest in Wingman at 10/1

Just throwing out my selections for tomorrow

Mixed day today - 2 winners and 3 placed but messed around by backing a few horses in most races which ate into anything I made.

12.30 - Sweet Kiln 4-1 (Celtic)
1.05 - Have already backed forPadythePlasterer at 7-1

Softish Ground will help the 2 of them

3.30 - Should be one of the races of our generation. Looking forward to just sitting back and enjoying it. Might have a small e/w interest in Afistfullofdollars (cant figure out why they would pay 22,500 to supplement him if he didnt have a chance) at 50/1 or Star de Mohaison at 33/1.

4.05 - Railway Ranger - dont know why but sure worth a shot at 28/1!

4.40 - Maralan - in the faint hope that Oliver Brady will win a race and leap around like a fool in his Monaghan jersey. 12-1

Some further reading from another tipster I came across. Think this fella had 2 wins, 2 2nds and a 3rd today. Dont shoot the messenger:

12.05 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

A new race this year which makes trend analysis impossible, so i will use the stats that have given me success over the last 2 days (placed lto, cheltenham winner previously, won over the trip, ground preference).

The horse that stands out for me is Gaspara. An impressive winner last year at the festival, she has placed on both Cheltenham starts (record is 13) and any further drying of the ground would suit her nicely. The form of the Pipe team at present is also a massive factor for me. Iā€™m not quite confident enough to put my head on the block and call the win, but sheā€™s got a great chance of taking this ahead of some useful rivals.

For the ew value, i think that Annieā€™s Answer looks very interesting and has a chance of being involved at the finish at a nice price. The write up of her last race suggested that she needs further, which she gets today, and on her only previous run at the track she seemed to be loving it tanking along up front before mysteriously petering out. Iā€™ll take the risk that sheā€™ll answer my first race prayers with a small ew bet therefore.

Kanuā€™s Selections:

Gaspara 1pt ew
Annieā€™s Answer 0.5pts ew

Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle

Basically my criteria was for a 5 or 6 year old who was at least in the first 3 lto. Also freshness will be a factor here as 8 out of the last 10 winners came off a break of 4 weeks or more (the exceptions being Galileo and Fundamentalist). Interestingly, cheltenham form is not essential in this race as 7/10 of the last winners were having their first run at the course! This did not however feature too strongly in my mind and i have even gone against the stat in making a selection.

The shortlist for winners came down to Aigle Dā€™Or, Breedsbreeze, Forpadydeplasterer and Group Captain. In the end iā€™ve sided with Aigle Dā€™Or in what promises to be an absolute cracker. His last victory (at Cheltenham) came in the most informative race of last season, in which the top 4 all went on to place in the festival. Tidal Bayā€™s run in the race last year has also swayed it for me slightly given his monster run today too. The second (Hold Em - more on him later) has franked the form by winning subsequently, and AP on board is also a factor for me. Iā€™ll only stake 1pt for the win given how wide open the head of the market is, and look forward to what could be the best finish of the whole festival.

For place value, i have 2 selections to small stakes. Hold Em hasnā€™t finished out of the top 2 in his career, and is a similar type to Aigle Dā€™Or. He wonā€™t be far away at the finish and 25/1 seems excellent value to me. One that i will also be backing is Loganā€™s Run - something about the victories of Tidal Bay and Inglis Drever suggests to me that Howard Johnsonā€™s yard is firing at just the right time.

Kanuā€™s selections:

Aigle Dā€™Or 1pt win
Hold Em 0.75pts ew
Loganā€™s Run 0.25pts ew

Coral Cup

PP paying out on 5 places in this one which always helps in what looks an absolute minefield to solve! I will offer 2 to small ew stakes in this race, along with one that i think will have a huge chance of taking the spoils, knowing that a place will almost certainly cover my outlay.

Chiaro looks a bit overpriced at 50s in places, especially when the horse that beat it (Kicks For Free) is conceding an additional 5lbs for a 3l win and is 3 times shorter in price. Has winning form around cheltenham and will go on the ground.

Peacock is another who interests me at around 20s currently. Twiston Davies/Brennan is one of my favourite combinations, had a decent run lto ā€œdeserves to win a decent raceā€ nicely weighted and another with course experience.

The one that really interests me here is another Hobbs horse in County Zen. The way he stayed on in the totesport trophy last month really stuck in my mind and there is nothing to suggest that he will not come on for the run. Punjabiā€™s 3rd today suggests that the form of that race has been well and truly franked.

Kanuā€™s selections:

County Zen 1pt ew
Chiaro 0.5pts ew
Peacock 0.5pts ew

Am sure thereā€™ll be more to follow

The same fella I posted on earlier in the week

As we enter the final day of what has already been a memorable festival ,we still have the spellbinding meeting of the two best 3m+ chasers in the country, nay Europe, to come and there is no way I will be having a bet on that race. After all, why would you want to take your eyes off the action for a second, and worry about how your each way bet on a 33/1 shot is doing?. Lets just hope that we get the clash every one is talking about and Denman jumps the last alongside Kauto Star and maybe one other to give the crowd the chance to really take the roof off the old place.

On Thursdays racing, well I seriously underestimated how good a jumper Master Minded was and he gave Voy Pur a complete ass whipping in as impressive a fashion as seen at this distance for many a year. And since he is only a five year old, could he come back time and time again and do an Inglis Drever and won three titles?. On that horse, well how did he manage to drift out as big as 6/4. Tougher than old boots, and stays well with that touch of class as well you need. A true hero of the game and bring him back for one more try Howard, please!

Onto Fridays less mammoth nine race card, and the Ballymore Properties, Coral Cup have already been covered by myself previously and the bets still stand.

12.30 David Nicholson Mares Only Hurdle

Whilst Mick Fitzgerald has already nailed his colours firmly to the mast with Chomba Womba and how much he thinks of her, I will be limiting my stake to just 0.5pt e/w on a large price outsider in Silver Charmer who is overpriced at 66/1.

Firstly, he has Ruby Walsh on board which is a positive in more ways than one. Obviously ,having a top jockey on board is a help, but this top jockey already has previous on this mare having won a handicap last spring over 2m5f here. She is clearly a mare who comes to herself this time of year, with three of her nine wins coming in the months of March and April. With that record, it is obvious to me that her trainer has kept her back deliberately for this in the hope of gaining some nice black type for her before she goes to the paddocks sometime in the next season or so. At the prices, she has to be better value each way than backing the favourite win only.

2.15 Triumph Hurdle

With the current prices on offer, the first thing to say is that this is a definite no-bet race for me. Franchoeck may well win but I would rather just let him do so without risking any hard earned, and there isnt that much each way value in his rivals.

2.50 Brit Insurance Hurdle(Albert Bartlett)

I am glad that the Nicholls camp got off the mark today as it means that their runner TheTotherOne helps to allow bookmakers to give away a little bit of value with the less high profile trained Gone To Lunch under A P McCoy. If he was trained by the Master of Ditcheat then I would reckon his run behind Inglis Drever and Blazing Bailey in the Cleeve Hurdle would have him down as a short price favourite in this grade. An out and out stayer,he has been impressive in his four wins so far this season ,and was giving 7lbs to another of todays rivals Nenuphar Collonges over todays C&d prior to that last run in the Cleeve. As I said, if he was trained by a bigger name then he would be a lot shorter in the betting and therefore betting him Win Only at 11/2 seems the best course of action here for 2pts.

3.30 Gold Cup-Already said no bet race. One to set the replay for though and watch for years to go, especially on those balmy summer nights when sellers from Redcar or Windsor tend to permeate the racing channels broadcasts

4.05 Christies Foxhunters

After the main event, this will feel almost like scrapping around in buckets looking for whatever leftovers are there compared to that main meal banquet served up by Denman and Kauto Star. However, I reckon there are a couple of tasty bets here each way, both currently available at 25/1 at the moment, and both being backed for 1pt e/w each.

First up, we have crack amateur Derek OConnor riding for trainer Ian Ferguson on French Tyne. The trainer is of course most famous for the 3rd placed Joe Blake two years ago, so we know he has previous in bringing one over for this race and French Tyne is a nine year old who has two runs under Rules in Hunter Chases to his name, with the last one being a win over 2m4f at Clonmel on heavy going., and is a half brother to Thyne Again who ran creditably in the Arkle on Tuesday(God, that feels like ages ago now, doesnt it ). In the after race comments, the Racing Post writer speculated that he would be suited by a step up in trip which he gets today ,and therefore at the prices he is overpriced to these eyes.

The second one is another raider from across the Emerald Isle in the shape of Railway Ranger who was in the process of running a good race behind favourite Agus A Vic at Leopardstown when tipping up three out. Ridden by another good Irish jockey that I rate in Coleman Sweeney(What is it though with Irish jockeys and strange first names? Ruby and now Coleman!) and if he gets on as well with this horse as his previous Festival mounts Sleeping Night and First Down Jets in this race(a winner and 66/1 2nd) then we should be in for a good run from this one.

4.40 Grand Annual

The last race over steeplechase fences for yet another Festival and I go with a shock result here with a lightly weighted runner in the shape of Magic Sky. I have been convinced for a while that there is a big race win in this one and having taken another look at the race he was 6th in behind Tamarinbleu over 2m5f here in December, I am sure it was as much the handicap mark he had then that kept him out of the first four there. He is now 8lb lower here and again, I feel he needs a mixture of this trip, cut in the ground and a good pace to take a hand in proceedings which he is likely to get here and at 40/1 he is worth throwing away 0.5 pt each way on him as I would hate to say all that and then not back him as he jumps the last six clear, given that he is joint top rated by both Topspeed and Racing Post Ratingsā€¦

5.20 County Hurdle

The traditional getting out of jail stakes and two big priced outsiders make up my last bets at the Festival in what looks a sub standard renewal of this race compared to previous years, ratings wise. The two who I shall be betting each way at 33/1 for 1pt each are Kings Revenge and Dark Bolero.

In the case of Kings Revenge, where can you get a chance of backing an Alan King runner ,ridden by his stable jockey Robert Thornton, in a big race at 33/1?..He does have a look of a perennial bridesmaid about him in some way(Kings Revenge that is, not Alan King!) with seven seconds compared to just four wins but that should work in our favour with our each way bet as he should at the very least be competitive off his current mark of 131 of running a race for us.

The second runner is a bit more of a dark horse in the shape of Phillip Rothwells raider Dark Bolero who goes well fresh and is one I am certain to has a big field to be seen at his best and who has an eight pound pull at the weights with second favourite ImSingingTheBlues .He was beaten 10 lengths plus that day but does that really explain the disparity in pricing between the two?. Not to these eyes it doesnt and therefore I think Ladbrokes 33/1 is a pretty big price, and in common with Kings Revenge will carrying 1pt each way of my cash tomorrow to hopefully end the meeting in some style.

To recap:

12.30: Silver Charmer 0.5 pt e/w @66/1
1.05: Razor Royale 1pt e/w @28/1
1.40: OrbitO Gold/Mendo/Tagula Blue 3x 0.5pt each way @ 40/1,22/1,and 80/1 respectively
2.55: Go To Lunch 2pt s win @ 11/2
4.05: Railway Ranger/French Tyne 2x 1pt each way @25/1(x2)
4.40: Magic Sky 1pt each way @40/1
5.20: Kings Revenge/Dark Bolero 2 x 1pt each way @ 33/1(x2)

Best of luck tomorrow and may all the jockeys and horses live to fight another day, hopefully one that includes Denman vs. Kauto Star : The Rematchā€¦

Steven

JCB Triumph Hurdle

Stats wise, i was looking for a horse with an RPR of 135+, who won last time out (in the past 10 years 9 horses won lto). Having narrowed the field down to 4 horses who match this criteria, the favourite stands out like a sore thumb for me. Franchoek has enjoyed a brilliant start to his hurdling career and i will back him to continue his rise to stardom. Alan King has a good recent record in the race, training 2 winners in the past 4 years, and although course experience traditionally has not been a factor (only 3 of the last 10 winners had prior runs at cheltenham before winning) this is totally expected given the age of the horses - the fact that heā€™s already been round 3 times (with a record of 121 to boot) is a massive plus for me and means 3 points will be staked on him emerging victorious.

For place value, i like the look of Personal Column. He meets all of the criteria mentionned and following his last win (defeat of Won In The Dark without resorting to the stick) Barry Geraghty claimed the horse would be well suited to the hustle and bustle here. A former winner on the all weather over 10 furlongs suggests that the speed is there and so a small saver will be placed on him here.

Kanuā€™s selections:

Franchoek 3pts win
Personal Column 0.5pts ew

Thanks for that Mac. Your man writes his tips fairly convincingly - too convincingly really. Hard not to have a small interest at his 40/1 and 66/1 mentions.

Yesterday was a fucking horror show. Nothing back on the bets from yesterday. some seconds on yankee horses and two big losers in Voy por and Silverburn. Only an ante post on Kasbah bliss came up, and he only came second. To top it off I was in the boozer last night drinking with mrs jā€™s boss and his Cousin Vinnyā€¦ so I layed a bet for himā€¦ The first day was good crack listening to the races but I was busy yesterday so only turned on the riamhaire to learn the results. Felt like I was backing virtual racing. Hopefully I get to hear and possibly see some of it tonight, but thereā€™s a paddyā€™s day do on that I have to attend, so who knows what may happenā€¦

The yankee is Kauto Star, Wanango in the county hurdle, Venalmaar in the Ballymore and Sweet kiln.

Iā€™ve got Kauto in the few yankees stile alive so if he loses tonight iā€™m a bit fucked.

Ah well. I should be homefor all the enjoyment next yearā€¦

By the way, Majestic Concorde is running in the Ballymore. a tip of a long lost relative a long time ago. Iā€™ve backed him.

Cracking race there with Celestial Gold holding on to win. Two winners and one place so far today - going well.

Truly horriffic. Debacle. Catastrophe. Think Dunphy discussing the Charlton/McCarthy/Kerr/Staunton era. Fuck all to show for the week but bruising memories.
Lost me bollix.

Ah well, itā€™ll grow backā€¦

I broke the bookies with my e/w accuum of Trafford Lad, Kicks for Free, Celestial Halo and Denman of course.

Well at least Ruby put that gobshite Tommo in his place

Ruby interview.

Like the way he says itā€™s ridiculous and then when Tommo tries to make amends Ruby just has another go.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZPdUnFJJnA