More closures to be required but not a âlockdownâ and more restrictions re groups to be announced
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Iâm in limerick CBD this morning on essential business and it is very very quiet.
Probably the way to go for now, close parks, beaches at weekend maybe. Ban mobile food stalls, markets etc. Only 2 out together walking etc, not easy though
Fergal must read tfk
Italy seems to have peaked. Glimmer of hope.
I donât believe a lockdown can be sustained in the West. Community solidarity only lasts for so long. We will reach a point where the consequences of a lockdown (economic, on other elements of the health service and peopleâs well being) will likely trump all else. My prediction is a slowdown from the peak across the board in the West in 2/3 weeks (Italy seems to have turned the corner and Germany are slightly confident their social distancing measures has slowed it).
By mid April the hope would be that we have some decent treatments (thereâs encouraging signs here), some rapid diagnostics (those seem to be there) and hopefully an anti bodi test in place that can keep a lid on this specific outbreak. If they see a trend down, thereâll be a gradual lifting of restrictions, I suspect that offices will be told to reopen gradually (50% of capacity and social spacing maintained). Some public spaces and shops will be allowed to open again (once theyâre closed, likely seems to be from today). Rules on over 70s will remain and continued social contacting of positives. My guess is that we are 3.5 to 4 away from that.
The government might then encourage eateries to reopen (they havenât banned them I donât think, just that theyâve voluntarily closed) with social spacing. Pubs will likely be the last one here just due to our social connection to them and the potential for disorder. 7-8 weeks for that.
There could well be a second outbreak of course In the Autumn. Hopefully the amount of money put into the science of this can track it if it mutates. Continue putting money into diagnostics, treatments and a vaccine (for next year at best). Governments wonât be afraid to slam the doors shut again though after this which is actually a positive.
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Oral Hegarty of UCD on Sean OâRourke suggesting all construction sites should be shut down. Easy to say from the cheap seats when your salary is secure. I presume Orla will be suggesting salary cuts across UCD to help fund the massive supports required. You either have solidarity or donât
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Hairdressers. One would want to be a thick fuck to go for a haircut these days.
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Indeed. When people perceive their livelihoods are on the line they may not be the most rational.
The conversation was dead in the water once O Rourke asked her had she been to or observed any contruction sites to which she replied no.
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I think weâre looking down our noses at their death rate. Weâre a horrible shower but this is the 2020 European Championships:
Ireland: Population - 4.83million
Tests: hard to find an exact figure but they say over 10,000 last week alone. They also say theyâre in advanced negotiations with China to start testing over 100,000 per week soon.
Confirmed infected: 1,125 = 0.023%
ICU: 25 = 0.00052 %
Deaths: 4 = 0.000083%
UK: Population - 66.44 million
Tests: 83,945 = 0.12% (Ireland is at least twice this and probably a lot more than that)
Confirmed infected: 6,650 = 0.01% (less than half of Ireland)
ICU: I canât find this figure, maybe someone else can (I think the British media must be slightly behind us if they havenât realised yet that this is the figure they should really be focusing on).
Deaths: 335 = 0.0005% (over 6 times Irelandâs rate)
(Based on the above I would argue that assuming the ICU situation in Ireland and the UK is similar and neither country is at capacity, then the UK have under-estimated their confirmed infected by about 12 fold (because theyâve half the confirmed rate of infection of Ireland, with 6 times the death rate and 26=12). However, that factor of 12 is only in comparison with Ireland, so if Ireland has also under-estimated itâs confirmed infected by a factor of, say for example 3, then the UKâs figure would also be 3 times too low, so the factor of under-estimation in the UK would then be 123=36, if that makes any sense). However if it is the case that the ICU situation in the two countries is not similar and the UKâs death rate is dying because the UK has reached ICU capacity already and patients arenât getting as good ICU treatment in the UK as in Ireland and theyâre not dying because of a higher infection rate per se, then these sorts of calculations are not really possible.)
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I caught a bit of that â an absolute lemon.
Anyone thinking of withdrawing a few k from the bank for backup money?
With BOI closing branches already and after todays restrictions id say a few more will close today.
If there is a âtechnical glitchâ with card payments weâd be all screwedâŚ
Or am I over thinking this as I eat my coco pops.
Weâll see what she says.
Ireland has 6 dead on Worldometer (the one true source).
Decent response though.
We wonât need any money where weâre going
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Itâs a tough one â who wants to be handling cash now? Our local shop is asking for tap/card as much as possible but if the matrix goes down there could be a right bit of panic alright.
The figure that has been most widely publicised is that the UK has 6.6 ICU beds per 100k population, Ireland 6.5 ICU beds per 100k population.