Professor Sunetra Gupta, Professor of theoretical Epidemiology at Oxford, claims that (based on her groups modelling) the disease arrived in the UK in mid January and because it is so infectious, over 50% have been infected already.
Based on her numbers less 1 in a thousand infected get sick enough to go to hospital, and most hardly notice they are sick.
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.
The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.
The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.
However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.
The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.
The modelling brings back into focus “herd immunity”, the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected. The government abandoned its unofficial herd immunity strategy — allowing controlled spread of infection — after its scientific advisers said this would swamp the National Health Service with critically ill patients.
Anyone bored shitless yet?
Incredible if true.
But it makes some sense- how the he’ll could China have kept their numbers so comparatively low?
Open the fucking pubs.
If your company let’s you go you get 350 for 6 weeks.
If your company keeps you on, the government will subsidize 75% of your wages up to around 475 per week. If the company can prove they’ve lost 25% of their income. (Something along those lines)
Welcome to 9 days ago kid
Of this thread? Definitely.
But I’m holding up fairly well asides from that
What makes no sense is the number of people who are testing negative. Maybe their viral load is too low, or lots of false negatives?
The Brits will come out of this smelling of roses yet.
They reckon only show positive for four or five days
A massive reduction and down to near zero. That’s very encouraging, albeit worrying in a way that people are partially infected now.
Surely the diamond princess disproves this…
How come only one province in China got wiped out then?
Other Half now fully reckons she has had this since the middle of February (she had a brief fever after a hen and has had a bit of an auld cough since) and says it’s a miracle I haven’t been affected. 
Fractional infections
Everyone will be claiming they had it soon.
This chap Michael Levitt - your view ??
Fucks sake I told you to fill that form last week and send it in!
204 new cases 1 death