you couldnt be up to em.
They are basically saying that itâs savage contagious, but the mortality rate is very low, like less than normal flu low.
We are seeing the large amount of cases now because itâs infected so many people that the tiny % of them that will have adverse reactions are starting to add up. If say 50% of Italy has gotten it by now and 0.5% get strong symptoms off it thatâs 300,000 people. So still a massive amount.
But the working current theory of experts is that itâs in very early stages and that the reason we are seeing such large numbers is because 20% of people will get strong symptoms from it.
Obviously the difference between the two is massive. In the current scenario we are at the start, in their scenario we are towards the end.
They are calling for widespread antibody testing to see and hope to have it up and running shortly. Weâll see I suppose.
In terms of Italy vs other places and deaths. Italy got it earlier basically (maybe from their textile mills or whatever). Itâs coming down the track for everyone shortly itâll still be vicious, but much shorter lived in their scenario. Youâd still keep the lockdown either way, maybe even more nessecary in the short term if they are right.
Stuff like Italyâs older population etc are much more significant if itâs much more widespread.
1 Like
Everyone is now living in a parallel universe from the one we all inhabited in 2019.
2019 feels like two life times ago.
Maybe this is just the peak of a very small subset of those getting infected coming down with it?
The geographic clusters though make little sense though agreed.
Itâs an interesting though. I find it hard to believe some of the infection rates in Europe given how early it broke in some places and the R level suggested. Germany for example
Where are these scientists from?
Weston
1 Like
The only scientists to come out of Weston were of the pharmaceutical variety.
2 Likes
Nope.
Itâs was basically zero percent of the population three weeks ago and their models suggests somewhere between 35 & 50% now. So given the exponential nature of it the vast majority of that number will only have gotten it in the last few days, which would explain how health services in Italy etc have been swamped
So if they are right, in the next 3-6 weeks, the numbers should fall off a cliff.
Which would explain chi-na
The way a respiratory illness progresses is you absorb a virus, it lives and reproduces in your cells for days to a week or two (incubation), your immune system reacts to it, a battle starts that goes on for days to weeks, you feel sick. In some people the immune system response is overwhelming and they get very sick. In other people they donât have a strong immune system, or have another illness or illnesses, and they develop pneumonia, some are hospitalized and die. This whole process could take anything up to six weeks from infection, but you would expect to see the people who get really sick start to accelerate then. Thatâs what we have been seeing since the start of March, as the illness progresses.
Letâs start with Wuhan, five million scattered out of there in January to escape the plague, and infected every province in China, hundreds of millions then traveled all over China and the world for Chinese New year. Where did they go? Everywhere, but mostly to where a lot of Chinese live, New York, northern Italy, etc. With an R0 of 2.3 this would have spread like wildfire. Think about it, 10 generations of infection at the R0 of the flu is only 14 people, 10 generations at R0 of 2.3 is over 4,000. What if the estimate is wrong and the R0 is 3, thatâs 59,000. A social butterfly like @Tank and his mates could infect 59,000 people in a week. Now do the math on that 59,000 spreading it, and we are only at the beginning of February.
People are forgetting the month of February, as if the virus took the month off to go to Cheltenham. One infected person in a big busy city in mid January, how many people would that spread to in a month or six weeks, especially if it is airborne? Itâs entirely reasonable that this spread to hundreds of millions of people worldwide in February.
I havenât read the paper yet.
The virus has existed since November. Itâs impossible for it to have been around since November and for there to have been 0% infected in Europe three weeks ago and 50% now.
You are telling us that the virus wasnât that contagious for three months and then acquired magic contagious properties.
That didnât happen.
Itâs very short and has lots of pictures. Youâll be grand
3 Likes
But there wasnât 0% infected 3 weeks ago.
No mate. I didnât say that at all. Are you doing that thing where you make up arguments so you can disagree with them?
Iâm not sure why you are getting so excited with me anyway. Itâs the experts in Oxford who came up with the model not me.
2 Likes
No I didnât, basically zero percent and zero percent are two very different things. I havenât no intention of getting into it with you anyway. Itâll be up the people who wrote the study to defend it, not me
1 Like
Itâs exactly what youâre saying, given that you said 0% were infected three weeks ago.
Three weeks ago is March 3rd. The virus is thought to have been around since November 17th or so.
Thatâs three and a half months of a curiously non-contagious gap you canât explain.