If theyâre right it should be gone in 3-6 weeks, more or less. I hope they are right
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Ah whatever, weâll find out in the next month or so. I guess hopefully theyâre right. My apocalyptic fantasies donât do me or anyone else any good and Iâll have to let them go.
One little thing though @labane, I donât see how this theory accounts for the supposed relative lack of deaths in China outside of Wuhan. The only two explanations for that are that firstly the Chinese are lying or secondly the Chinese successfully stopped its spread.
Another flaw I see with this theory is that the Irish governmentâs steps seem to be having some small effect, which they wouldnât if half the country was already infected and some countries like South Korea and Germany have nearly stopped the virus altogether.
If there no good mathematical modeler among us?
Fuck it. You might as well be pissing into the wind as trying to understand this thing.
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Thereâs a gap in the forum there, Iâll be a PhD level mathematical modeler by the weekend.
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Nothing stopped the virus, as there were no efforts to contain it until early March, by which time according the Oxford lads an absolutely massive number of people had it. They had never heard of the killer coronavirus, so they went on with life as they normally would, coughing and spreading it to others. A tiny subset got very sick and developed pneumonia. Thatâs their result, a huge number got infected and only a small number got seriously ill.
I donât know what happened in China outside Hubei. But not that many died in Hubei, only just over 3k in a population of 60 million, the size of the UK.
South Korea and Germany might have been riddled with it, maybe they are healthier, and had less serious cases. From what i am seeing in the US, a lot of the people getting very sick are also obese (anecdotal).
Okay Iâll make this very simple for you. Why Iâm bothering I donât know.
- I did not write the study. Iâm explaining to you what it says, although I think itâs crayons I need at this stage.
- Neither am I defending the study. There are other scientific studies which directly contradict this one, they canât all be right. But to take the view that you disagree with the results of this study purely on the basis that you donât like them, is bizarre behaviour.
- Imagine a population the size of the UK, 67m or so people. This study suggests that very few of them, not enough to register on a chart of 0-100%, were infected at the beginning of March. Now when you are dealing with big numbers like 67m, nearly 0% could be a significant number in real terms. 50,000 would be basically 0% on this scale. I hope you are following because I donât think I can make this any simpler. Nor will I try.
- There is no suggestion that the virus was âcuriously non contagiousâ. The opposite in fact. It was very very very contagious. Iâve used three veryâs there which will hopefully help get the point across.
Anyway, I donât know what Iâm doing at half twelve at night arguing about a mathematical modelling study from Oxford with some stranger on the internet who doesnât believe it because he doesnât like its results.
Iâm out.
Best Wishes etc,
JG
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Hopefully they are right. I can taste the Guinness
No 3 is wrong. Why are you leaving out February? They are saying the first infected person arrived in the UK in mid January and it spread like wildfire. Half the population infected by now. They have 3 data sets depending on the R0 and the number that get seriously ill, the third example is 70% already infected.
Would you leave him off.
Why?
Iâm reading all Dan Browns books to see if I can find the answer there.
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Cos he asked to be let off. He didnt write the jaysus paper
Self flagellation?
Why would your mind go straight there. You sick fuck
Here is the graph of the three datasets. None goes beyond âzeroâ until March.
As I said to get beyond âzeroâ requires a large number of people. 1% is 670,000 people.
You say I disagree with the results of the study because I donât like them? Whatâs your evidence for this? Or are you just talking shite again?
The virus has been around since November 17th. There is heavy traffic between Wuhan, China and Europe.
If the virus was as contagious as is claimed, it would have made its presence felt in Europe a lot sooner.
Send your thoughts to the lads in Oxford
I think you may be misinterpreting their study. When you say beyond âzeroâ are you referring to people infected or the ones that get very sick.