You would hope that the wave of people heading to hospitals and ICU in Ireland will level off soon. There were no mitigation efforts in January/February and the disease takes time to develop, but as we get further along we should see the results of mitigation soon.
Itās a bit surreal on the lock down front, companies that make PPE, ventilators, medical equipment, drugs, tests, etc. are being asked to massively increase production, health workers are working away feverishly and trying to add staff, food and restaurant delivery services gone into overdrive, and all those people need to get around. One group of people told to stay indoors, the other group being whipped to do more.
I suspect what will happen is we will migrate to where the vulnerable remain at home and are protected, the social distancing rules get updated and slowly the world returns to normal. I heard a doctor from New York say today most transmission would stop if people just stopped touching their faces.
Fear the worst, hope for the best. Itās hard to divorce what happens here with what happens elsewhere. European curves in terms of cases have all been pretty consistent, with different time lags, Italy and Spain have been outliers so far in terms of deaths but we are still early in this outbreak at a European level. We have some things in our favour like low population density, younger population in general, a high degree of cohesiveness in terms of society and obeying restrictions etc. but we have a very low rate of ICU beds and still will no matter what efforts are being made to up the number. Nature is relentless in how itās spreading this.
However there is still a lot we donāt know. We know the amount of actual cases out here is much bigger than the published figure, but we donāt know by how much. Thereās nothing to indicate itās up to half the population as the Oxford study claimed. We donāt know if thereās a possible herd immunity solution and we donāt know how many people would have to catch it for that to happen. We donāt know what happens if suppression sort of works and we un-lockdown, we fear it might break out again and then itās harder to lockdown again.
Itās unlikely there will be work around treatments in time for the onslaught weāre going to have over the coming weeks. I donāt think making a prediction in terms of numbers is helpful, nobody knows and anybody who claims otherwise is guessing wildly. Itās possible work around treatments will significantly mitigate the severity of this outbreak, itās possible they wonāt. Even if treatments are found, how soon can they be brought on line at a practical level? Not soon enough, I think.
There was a C4 News report from South Korea this evening and to see the lengths theyāve gone to in terms of contact tracing was astounding, they effectively had a full digital profile map of every personās movements based on bank card and mobile phone data, we never could have done anything remotely like that.
Saw a lad yesterday. Mask on and never stopped adjusting it and fixing it. What a dope. They are a waste of time for folk actively trying to avoid getting it. You touch your face way more with them
Iāve never had such an overwhelming craving for a nice pint of Guinness as I do this evening. Actually I feel Iām experiencing the start of a panic attack thinking about exactly when will my lips purse the creamy head of one again?? ā¦
I donāt have European channels, but would love to see a programme on our EU colleagues and see what they are up to. Germany for example. Netherlands. Austria etc.
Yer man Sunak is putting himself in a great position in Britain. Uniquely for a current British cabinet minister, heās able to talk clearly and without coming across like a complete cunt. Itās been quite astounding to see the Tories go full socialist in their economic response over the last week. Theyāre doing it because they know they have to, both economically and politically.
Thats the interesting thing, the cunt genuinely seems to give a fuck. Either that or heās a rare, high level operator. Heāll be found out pretty quick Iād say but he could potentially be the UKs Obama, who knows
Masks are of dubious value unless you have an illness and want to prevent giving it to others, or you are strictly disciplined in putting it on properly and not fiddling with it.
The evidence suggest that transmission of SARS-2 is droplet rather than airborne, so like the flu not like measles or TB. That explains why it infects lots of people in a social setting, people coughing and sneezing, touching things, sharing food, hugging, etc. All it takes is to contact a droplet with your hand and touch your face and you have it. Thereās a huge outbreak in New Orleans linked to Mardi Gras, thousands of drunk cunts partying on top of each other and a pandemic going on.
Heās a doctor by profession I think. It doesnāt take much to stand out in that cabinet. An ability to display basic human empathy is enough, because none of the others have it.
I said he was a great bit of stuff when he was appointed. He lives in a rural constituency and is rich enough personally not to worry about that shit. Ideologically he is the opposite of Sajud javid, he believes in spending money and big Government.
Itās quite interesting that people here blame members of the public for getting drunk on the street during a pandemic, rather than the regime that told them it was fine to do so.