Discussions on easing lockdowns have to go on and they should be public, it would be absolutely wrong of governments to not have these discussions and give people hope. Obviously lives come first, but the full spectrum of outcomes has to be considered, including the projected number of deaths if the economy collapses completely and we have another great depression like the 1930s.
One of the unknowns is what impact will social distancing and good hygiene practices have. This is a disease that is spread by droplet outside of hospital procedures, if the public practice the measures put in place to reduce spread, this could have an enormous impact. We donāt know yet as we are working through all the infections when people were at Mardi Gras, sneezing all over each other at Cheltenham and soccer matches, tens of millions kissing each other on the cheeks, etc.
As we all hope for a vaccine, and until such time that there is one, we have to protect the vulnerable. We have to protect doctors from drawing a cross on peoples heads.
We only have to stay at home and watch the tv and spend time with our nearest and dearest. It isnāt easy, but it isnt fucking hard either
If people loot, thatās their choice, they live or die with the consequence, nobody chose to get the virus. The doctors donāt want to choose who gets to live or die.
Bottom line is, there shouldnāt be and wonāt be riots as long as the necessary economic supports are there, and thatās entirely dependent on governments and central banks.
They can do what they want, if they want, and they can prop up the system indefinitely, if they want. Theyād be well advised to go with socialism in this situation, because if they donāt, thatās when you will get riots.
Grand, lets do that for 6 months. Covid is more or less eliminated in Ireland but thereās limited herd immunity and no sign of a vaccine being developed. The rest of the world still hasnāt eliminated it and itās rampant in many countries, and tanland still has it. What do we do then, continue lockdown, closed borders indefinitely?
12 to 18 months at the very least before weāll see a safe vaccine. One would assume that some form of lockdown / curve flattening measures will be in place until then.
My alternative is to take a level headed approach to how long this lockdown can last and discuss the merits of a controlled spread of this. I just take umbrage to people screaming muderer, donāt even go there etc. to anyone discussing the merits of a plan outside of lockdown.
Lockdown will likely be an ever present threat until a vaccine arrives and more importantly gets actually pumped into people. There may be more than one lockdown, there may be several. The point is you cross those bridges when you come to them, you buy time. You hope that treatments emerge to mitigate the death rate. You donāt throw people overboard.