A lockdown for 12 months could end up being far more damaging to the entire population. I know your hearts in the right place, mate, but the bigger picture needs to be looked at as well.
Iām not saying to unlock us down in April - but, things need to be weighed up.
If helicopter money ended up pumping some inflation into the system it wouldnāt be a bad thing.
One glaring flaw in the Reagan/Thatcher idelogy was that they were obsessed with stopping inflation and yet they ran economies based on credit, which requires inflation.
I donāt think Universal Basic Income or concepts like it are real runners in normal circumstances. But these are not normal circumstances. It quickly became obvious that something along those lines would have to come in. I expect that in the US however, corporates and the wealthy will make out like bandits.
Everyone needs to calm down a little. As recently as the 12th of March the experts in the UK projected up to 500K dead, and thankfully they were listened to. It was this study and unfolding events in Italy that kick started this suppression effort across the globe, US, UK, France, Spain, everywhere.
Itās almost the end of March, the UK has 1,000 deaths and Ireland has 36 deaths. The US was projected to have 2.2 million deaths, we have 2,150. Yes it is early, but we are simply not going to see exponential growth long term from here, maybe for another week or two, but then the suppression efforts kick in.
You cannot save every life, but you have to make the best effort to save every life.
Society only breaks down when its faced with prejudicial attacks. When race or class is attacked. Whenever all of society is attacked as it is now is, a threat that doesnāt care if youāre rich or poor, black or white, society will come together.
But we will see exponential growth unless a vaccine is found, unless people stay inside until r0 is 1 and r0 will never be 1 until we get enough immunity, we are between the proverbial rock and hard place
You can reduce R0 in ways other than total lockdown. These extreme measures are necessary because we allowed the virus spread unchecked for a few months. You reduce R0 by not spreading the virus to other people, sneezing into your elbow, staying home if you are sick, washing hands regularly, stop touching everything, keep your distance, no shaking hands, hugging and kissing. Keep bars and clubs closed for a bit longer, but after this peak has passed ease up and let people go back to work.
R0 depends on peopleās behavior as much as the virus.