Coronavirus - Dig In, It's going to be a while yet

Thats an awful thing to be saying. Even for a neo con

The reality is that once the ICU capacity becomes overwhelmed the death rate skyrockets.

There is really no such thing as a ā€œdeath rateā€ for this. It all depends on access to quality healthcare.

I worry that the measures being taken are completely inadequate and we will be overwhelmed. I donā€™t know why everybody thinks Italy is an outlier. Thereā€™s nothing to suggest they are.

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I was reading anecdotal reports from Italian posters on Planet Rugby of them rationing ventilators and hospitals overloaded nearly 2 weeks ago. That was with ~7k~ cases confirmed and per population head thatā€™s less than what Ireland has now. Thus far I think we have just 12 in ICU (until last nights stats). Itā€™s clear something went dramatically wrong there, from the geographic cluster to the demographic getting the virus and their lack of preparedness for the surge (despite having a very good health system by all reports).

Think Italy has one of the oldest populations on earthā€¦

https://twitter.com/drmarkmurphy/status/1241390938292961282?s=21

Arenā€™t a 1/4 of the population 65+ though?

Germany has an older population.

Bad luck is definitely a major reason why Italy has it so bad.

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Youd have to wonder if Italy are experiencing a stronger strain of this virus. People are going into ICU and have access to ventilators and they are still all dying.

When is todays update?

Then stop extrapolating Italy to the US when you have no evidence to support it. Italy is absolutely an outlier, almost 10% mortality of confirmed cases when the global average is 1.4%.

Clearly what has to be done is protect the most vulnerable from getting infected. If that can be done the mortality rate will plummet.

Italyā€™s rise has been very gradual from the beginnin. Itā€™s now exploding over there but the initial rises donā€™t seem to be out of kilter with other nations.

Italy were somewhat caught off guard with this, why flights were being allowed in and out of Ireland from mainland Europe when this thing took off in Italy I cannot understand.

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From what Iā€™m hearing those timelines are longer. Fella I work with was sent home Thursday last week, we still are waiting for result. Obviously weā€™re all concerned working in same area. Since a other went home with flu

When did I do this? You are going round shouting your head off at so many people you donā€™t even know who and why. Focus man

Italyā€™s mortality rate is so high because they arenā€™t testing anyone who has mild symptoms they havenā€™t the time. When Italy were on 2,000 cases they were in reality probably on closer to 100,000. When we are on 2,000 cases weā€™ll probably be on closer to 10,000 cases.

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Thatā€™s probably most logical explanation alright.

The virus doesnt seem to be mutating much, so far at least. I think sadly COVID-19 may be a bit of a death sentence for the elderly who are already in poor health. You also have the ghastly choice for doctors who are making decisions on who to try and save.

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Sorry mate that was probably someone else.

Finally a bit of sense breaks out on the threadā€¦ :clap:

This is a problem that every other country will face, even Germany.