Coronavirus - Dig In, It's going to be a while yet

[Thomas_Brady]

I’ve ordered a load of keifer milk there. I’ve a load of spinach and avocados on way also.

[carryharry]

Why? You beat this already

[Raylan]

Looking for more attention keeps it at bay

[Thomas_Brady]

You’ll regret that when youre in an ICU ward next week.

[Little_Lord_Fauntleroy]

@Julio_Geordio

… it at all. We are missing a massive factor.Places like Malaysia should be riddled and should have been the first places in trouble given its proximity and connectedness to China. But it seems that while it is affected it’s doing okay so far.Yet Italy, Spain and the US are overrun in a matter of weeks

B C G

[padjo]

@anon78624367

… be on a direct track across in a certain area east to west.It seems to be spreading horizontally and not vertically. Maybe that’s to do with the nature of travel of people (more flights in Northern Hemisphere, especially Europe etc), or climate, or wind, could be anything. But it looks like a pattern

Possibly related to air traffic routes?

[anon78624367]

there you go. Airplanes are the death of us… If you overlayed a heatmap of infections it wouldn’t look too dissimilar to this I’d wager

[Copper_pipe]

Aisling Kenny (KennyAKE)

[glasagusban]

@anon78624367

…relevant number because of differences in testing. there seems to be a 10 day lag in when each country reached a certain number of deaths and in and around 200 seems to be where the curve steepens, pretty much everywhere.The trajectory of the curve is very important after that point. We are there now.

I told you already the start of the surge will be Easter weekend.

By the way deaths is also unreliable as countries are recording them differently too.

[Thomas_Brady]

What surge, deaths?

[Batigol]

Why will it start then?

[carryharry]

It takes that long for those Cheltenham attendees to spread it around.

[Thomas_Brady]

Is he on about deaths/ ICU figures or confirmed cases?

[Julio_Geordio]

@Batigol

Why will it start then?

It goes buck ape of a bank holiday weekend

[Batigol]

I don’t know. What will surge @glasagusban and why?

[artfoley]

@TreatyStones

Over half the NH clusters

Nursing Homes or National Hunt

[Thomas_Brady]

He’s refusing to answer now - fucking dickhead.

[anon78624367]

it’s seems to be the only consistent number as a single date point, around 200 deaths is when it reveals the trajectory, however they are reported.

[anon78624367]

deaths, if you follow global trends, it’s around 200 where the growth really begins. How quickly seems to depend on the ICU capacity, which has a dependency I assume on the measures in the weeks leading up to this point. From this point on there will be growth, how steep depends on state of ICU

[glasagusban]

The number of cases and the number needing ICU. It will the start of the surge mind.