Itâs an extremely arbitrary number. Even a cursory glance at the statistics for the Top 10 countries by death toll shows completely random % increases before, at, and after this number, and more trajectories than Brian Hoganâs puckouts.
This starts from 10 deaths, I donât really see 200 as being a point of change in rate, though overall view of curvature change could be different if you start at say zero or 50.
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The US trajectory looks like that of a plane which has been hijacked by a lunatic, and I guess in reality that is actually true.
Catalans have beautiful names. RIP Pepâs mam.
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US virologist Robert Gallo of the Institute of Human Virology in Maryland has confirmed he is working with a team who will make an announcement shortly that will have âa major effectâ on global efforts to tackle Covid-19.
Best known for his role in the discovery of HIV as the infectious agent responsible for AIDS, Prof Gallo did not go into detail other than to indicate it involves deployment of âan adjusted existing vaccineâ that will be available within months.
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What a steaming pile of shite to wake up to.
So, to summarize the last 7 hours posts, the virus left China on a plane in Janaury and traveled to Italy. It spread like mad for 10 days, then got bored and decided to head for Spain, 10 days there bored again went to Germany, 10 days there bored again went to UK. I suppose it took the ferry then and headed for Ireland.
This place badly needs moderation during the daylight hours in Ireland. I nominate @TreatyStones who seems the only other one left on here connected to reality.
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Nobody asked what your wife said first thing this morning.
if you look at it, around 200 deaths is where the graph start to come off the floor, it seems to be consistently in around 200 deaths, what happens after that is arbitrary, but that number is consistent. Itâs where the graph start to look exponential as opposed to linear, what happens after that is how steep the curve is. These are the steepest.
if you look at Germany and South Korea relative to Italy, Germanyâs deaths start looking exponential at around 200, South Korea looks linear because theyâve kept it under 200
Germanyâs curve looks much flatter than Italyâs relative to time
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The most frightening thing about that is that itâs marked in increments of 2,000
What did Germany do that was so different? Or were they just âluckierâ?
Wasnât there an issue in how they attributed the deaths of old people - not all were taken to be COVID related? The ironmoth argument.
All those countries on your top curve have similar enough populations, with the exception of the US. You canât really look at the US as a country like Italy or Spain, itâs too vast and the population density varies widely by state. The US would be more like the EU.
this is ignoring all other variables. Iâm looking at one indicator only, and it looks like the pattern is after 200 deaths, it stops looking linear and starts looking exponential. Regardless of measures taken, testing etc. These measures may be reflected in the curve after this point. Hence Germany looking flatter etc.
Germany arenât out of the woods yet. Theyâre right at the point now where Italy went vertical. It looks good for them alright
Sure the reason it looks linear before 200 is because of the scale of the graph. Itâs always exponential
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No
Lads are turning themselves upside down and inside out arguing the same stuff for a month now.
Well since the increments in your graph are in 2000s then yes, around 200 is where you would be able to observe it coming off the floor.
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absolutely, thatâs as maybe but itâs at this scale the pattern is revealed. it should be noted that this scale is relative to Italy, the worst case scenario.