Coronavirus - Dig In, It's going to be a while yet

[anon7035031]

@Tank

…up with say 500,000 dead. Italy, Spain and France will all soon be losing over 1,000 each per day and that could go on for months. Then add in that there could be millions dead in China already. Plus god knows what will happen in Africa.At least a million dead is probably to be expected at this stage.

Read the Imperial College report, it’s only twenty pages and was prepared for the UK government so dumbed down to their level.

Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[Lazarus]

@fistoffury

Just drove over the n68 towards Ennis from West Clare, there is cars in there hundreds heading towards kilkee, as busy as any summer bank holiday. Vast majority Dublin and limerick registrations. I fear for the local residents.

Holiday homes in the West have become riddled with fleeing Dubs last few days. I expect a massive uptick in cases here very soon

[Fagan_ODowd]

@TheUlteriorMotive

Give them all full marks. Oisin will lose his shit.

[anon7035031]

@flattythehurdler

Do you think any western govt would have reacted quicker? I don’t.
Let’s not forget that Leo fucked off for his Paddy’s Day shindig as usual, despite actually having China as an example.

Yes, I think any western country would have reacted much quicker if this pathogen started locally.

What western government has a government structure based on extreme fear, such that every response at the local level is based on not upsetting the central government? Every effort was made by Wuhan and Hubei authorities to cover this up. Doctors who raised the alarm were taken in and threatened. Journalists who raised the alarm disappeared.

The issue of how western governments reacted is a different one. The virus was all over the world before China started to tell the truth and the WHO issued their first warnings. Remember the WHO believed the official Chinese line that this couldn’t be transmitted person to person up to January 21.

The response from western governments in February was appalling, but in reality they had no idea how fast this was spreading and not one of them had made preparations for a pandemic like this.

[balbec]

@anon78624367

Fucking hell. Had they underlying conditions?

Apparently not. The woman went into hospital when fairly sick. They tell people here to stay at home if sick. Hardly any testing being done either. Social isolation seems to be well followed, cops everywhere. But I was out on the bike earlier but saw a car park full next to a scenic walk. So you’d wonder. At least it’s freezing here so not much incentive to go out.

[Lazarus]

A lot of these guys were raised under a communist regime, you’d expect the new reality to come a little easier to them. The ages of those 2 though is very worrying

[glenshane]

@Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy

we

There’s no “we” in this. The north is fucked without testing.

[anon7035031]

It’s on the other thread for delinquents, but it bears repeating.

This disease is hitting the young and old differently. The virus is very aggressive and attacks the lungs, especially the lower lungs. If you are relatively young and healthy your immune system will go into overdrive and create something called a cytokine storm, where you get extremely ill and may need hospitalization. The great majority of those people will survive, but some will die if they are not treated quickly enough.

For older people, people in their 80s in particular and people with compromised immune systems, they can’t fight off the virus and develop pneumonia. These are the 5% that are ending up in ICU, and 2% on ventilators. There’s a study from Wuhan that shows that over 80% of those that end up on ventilators don’t make it.

[balbec]

Just don’t believe their numbers. Think they are suppressing the real number to avoid panic.

[anon78624367]

A good to soft immune system is the key here.

[Tank]

@anon7035031

That’s a fairly bleak assessment. Close the schools and universities for 18 months it says. We can’t do that so we’ll have to speed up the vaccine somehow. Or else completely wipe the virus out, Wuhan style by testing the whole population at once.

Edit: the recurring sense I have reading that report is “these guys aren’t as smart as they think they are. This isn’t the exact science that they portray it to be”.

[Tassotti]

@Fagan_ODowd

…ds Portmarnock but the traffic was wedged so I gave up at the roundabout and orientated back towards the peninsula. Stopped off at SuperValu which wasn’t busy so I popped in and bought a chicken for the dinner.Cycling in groups doesn’t appear to be effected by the virus. Cycling must give you immunity

@Fagan_ODowd

…ds Portmarnock but the traffic was wedged so I gave up at the roundabout and orientated back towards the peninsula. Stopped off at SuperValu which wasn’t busy so I popped in and bought a chicken for the dinner.Cycling in groups doesn’t appear to be effected by the virus. Cycling must give you immunity

same bullshit here. Richmond park had to be closed an hour because of the crowds, I cam’t stop crying the last few hours, people like that deserve to die

[Copper_pipe]

Independent.ie (Independent_ie)

[Copper_pipe]

Think we could have a big increase in number of total cases today.

[Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy]

[anon7035031]

Nothing is exact, there’s lot of unknowns. The 18 months comes from projecting a second epidemic later this year, worse than the current one. We probably can’t speed up a vaccine much sadly, unlike flu vaccines where we have had a lot of success, a vaccine has never been developed for a corona virus.

[cluaindiuic]

@Copper_pipe

Think we could have a big increase in number of total cases today.

I doubt Holohan would go on national media and say that there are encouraging signs that the measures are working and then have bad numbers. I’d be surprised if we’re over 150.

[Julio_Geordio]

Well if the 14 in the nursing home are in today’s numbers then that’s a big cluster straight away. Then assuming testing is increasing every day, and the measures introduced last week won’t have kicked in fully yet, then you’d be expecting more anyway

[Tim_Riggins]

There’s a big jump in ICUs anyway.

[Lazarus]

What time is todays update?