I think Chile’s tale of woe should serve as a real cautionary tale here. Their population is 18 million. They’re running ahead of the US in vaccinations and miles ahead of Ireland. But they’ve been having a big surge in cases and deaths. This loosening is at least a month or two sooner than I think is appropriate. With a bit of luck it’s possible we might largely get away with it, but it’s a gamble and I think it’s one taken by a government which is unbelievably weak and afraid to govern. It governs by public opinion and that’s basically it. They really need to get the vaccines lashed into people at a serious rate of knots if it’s to work.
Ah mate they had to lift restrictions here. People are cracking up.
What vaccine are Chile relying on?
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I believe the majority of doses administered have been the Chnese “CoronaVac” with the rest Pfizer. I don’t know the exact breakdown.
Is that saying their resurgence came with first dose % of circa 5%?
At least we’re starting from a base of closer to 30 - probably higher when the easing actually kicks in.
Also, although we’re conditioned now to see this as a dramatic loosening it still is quite tight restrictions until we’ll into June (when vac levels will be north of 50%)
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The vaccine they are using is basically useless until the second dose is administered and even then its only an optimistic 55/60% effective.
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@cheasty also quite interesting from your Chile graphs that their cases have spiked but death rate hasn’t which I’d suggest is more evidence of the risk reduction resulting from vaccines
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OIUTF has begun. A few more weeks and we will be done. Vulnerable will be vaccinated and the Guinness quality team have cleaned every line in the country in preparation.
Its done
@Watchyourtoes @Horsebox @Fagan_ODowd @TheUlteriorMotive @glenshane
here’s the best I can do for you. Make of it what you will
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Chile is heading into winter too guys.
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2022 is the best we can dream of I fear…
Shur what’s another year.
That is odd. Simone is hardly an unusual name.
We need to reopen and then shut up shop again just to be sure
Well they’re averaging well over 100 deaths per day for the last month with a population of 18 million. It’s still a significant death rate. In fact it’s similar to the case to death rate we had in January.
We’re starting off with 400 cases a day, which is twice what we started off with on December 1st. There shouldn’t be quite the same drivers there that there was in December, most notably indoor pubs, and hopefully the virus will hit critical mass in May and June, but we’re dealing with a more transmissible dominant variant than this time last year, and if we do open indoor pubs in late June or early July, there will still be a lot of unvaccinated people around, and it’s possible one or two of the potentially really nasty variants could have gained a foothold by then.
So I still think there’s quite a leap of faith to be undertaken and there is a chance it could go wrong.
93 per cent of their vaccines was the Chinese vaccine that is 3 per cent effective at preventing infections after one dose.
It’s not comparable to us at all.
It’s supposed to be around 50% effective with one dose.
Preliminary results from a large study of health care workers now suggest one dose of CoronaVac, a vaccine developed by a Chinese company, is still about 50% effective against symptomatic COVID-19 in a Brazilian city where more than three-fourths of new cases are caused by the highly transmissible variant known as P.1.
The latest data from Chile is 16% after one dose. It might be like their PPE a bit of a lucky bag.
A study published by the University of Chile last week (in Spanish) looked at the level of protection the vaccine offered after the first and the second doses.
It suggested CoronaVac was 56.5% effective in protecting people against infection two weeks after they had received their second dose, but the figure was only 3% in the timespan between the first and second doses
I hope your wrong but I fear you could be right. I’m pleased with the announcement its the best we could have expected.