The medical police pounding the streets
Great article
In Iceland it is around 0.16% and falling. In other words…
Stop panicking – it’s over
Whilst everyone is panicking about the ever-increasing number of cases, we should be celebrating them. They are demonstrating, very clearly, that COVID is far, far, less deadly then was feared. The Infection Fatality Rate is most likely going to end up around 0.1%, not 1%.
So yes, it does seem that ‘ the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza.’
I know it is going to be virtually impossible to walk the world back from having made such a ridiculous, stupid, mistake. There are so many reputations at stake. The entire egg production of the world will be required to supply enough yolk to cover appropriate faces.
Of course, it will be denied, absolutely, vehemently, angrily, that anyone got anything wrong. It will be denied that a simple error, a mix up between case fatality and infection fatality led to this. It will even more forcefully stated that COVID remains a deadly killer disease and that all Governments around the world have done exactly the right thing. The actions were right, the models were correct. We all did the RIGHT thing. Only those who are stupid, or incompetent cannot see it.
When wrong, shout louder, get angry, double-down, attack your critics in any way possible. Accuse them of being anti-vaxx, or something of the sort. Dig for the dirt. ‘ How to succeed in politics 101, page one, paragraph one .’
However, just have a look, at the figures. Tell me where they are wrong – if you can. The truth is that this particular Emperor has no clothes on and is, currently, standing bollock naked, right in front of you. Hard to believe, but true.
I would like to thank Ronald B Brown for pointing out this catastrophic error, in his article ‘Public health lessons learned from biases in coronavirus mortality overestimation. ’ 6
I had not spotted it. He did. All credit is his. I am simply drawing your attention to what has simply been – probably the biggest single mistake that has ever been made in the history of the world.
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Quite a few apologies are going to be owed over this.
Project Fear hasn’t gone away you know
Lock down everything. Massive for a Sunday when the virus traditionally takes it handy
People will use the original, massively inflated, fatality rate to tell us how many lives they have “saved” and justify the ones they have actually destroyed
Article suggests that no other illness or infection counts people who are asymptomatic as “cases”. It’s all a cod.
I presume the only reason that is done because they are asymptomatic yet contagious
The flip-side of not counting them is that the fatality rate would increase steeply.
That’s all well and good, end the lockdown etc, but did the UK not basically hit their initial worst case scenario for deaths?
Also, is it not the case that the fatality rate was initially a lot higher and then started dropping? So those initial projections might have been more accurate based on the figures at the time they were made but those figures started changing and the models weren’t amended?
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The U.K. never got anywhere close to the numbers projected by the London college loon. What wasn’t known early days was how relatively high the mortality rate was for the elderly and those who were already compromised by disease, and extremely low it was for the young and healthy. It’s also likely mutated to less virulent strains as time has gone on which is what you’d expect.
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Treatment has also improved dramatically since the start as they didn’t know what they were dealing with. No one is talking about respirators anymore for example
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Except Trump.
Next 2 weeks are vital
Less virulent strains survive longer. A virus that kills its host dies itself too.
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Even tempered lads like Malachy Clerkin getting stuck into the government now.
Seems to be a real change in public opinion lately.
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The joy of TFK is being months ahead of the curve on most issues — the frustrating part is waiting for the general public and slower TFK posters like @TheUlteriorMotive to catch up.
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He’ll be along shortly with that image of the chess pieces
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Hello Mac, I hope you’re feeling alright today.
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He’s cracking up without his business trips.
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