People are frightened scared and broken but walking around bleeting weâre in this together smiling through tears. A broken brainwashed nation. Very north Korea or nazi Germany vibe off them
An interesting one.
Firstly, their death rate in the first wave was appalling. So very much an outlier for the first wave.
The second wave death rate looks much better. But itâs still early in that second wave I guess. For closed cases they still have a 25% death rate. So a huge number of those Wave 2 cases are still active. And the death rate from them is speculative at this stage I guess.
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April our most deadly month of covid had less deaths than January 17 and 18 flu season. Every other month this year has had less than average deaths in comparison to the same month over the last 5 years. January 20 was particularly low.
It is and we will know by the turn of the year really.
If that trend continues then itâs ridiculous to be force countries into the kind of lockdowns we currently are.
In the 26 it doesnât seem to be a pandemic crisis, it seems to be a health service crisis.
Up north things are probably and this would be a cautious estimate, 5 times more severe with cases than down south, a lot less testing is done. But our lockdown is nowhere near as sever as what is happening down south and this is most likely due to the limited functions Stormont have, with Westminister controlling the purse strings.
But so far up north, the health system has yet to buckle though itâs coming very close.
I posted something yesterday about there only being 0.11% of active cases in ICU in the north and similar in the south. That to me doesnât fit in line with all the fearmongering about the virus.
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My hole, that me fein watery cunt did a runner as soon as he lost his seat, in the RDS, while he was still party leader. An AUUCOAM
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I have a suspicion that the difference in the death rate there (and here) has something to do with so many of the people vulnerable to the virus having died in the first wave of it.
Tubs reckons itâs all going to be okay.
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I know weâre in a lockdown here but sure isnt england in a lockdown aswell? All pubs in liverpool shut for example.
I donât really buy that.
Young people were out and about every bit as much in the first two weeks of March as they have been in recent weeks.
Surely many multiples of people had it back then in all age groups, compared to the official figures.
Death rates are probably broadly similar with the south.
I think care home deaths are counted seperately.
Hospital deaths due to Covid currently stand at just over 600 in the north.
The orange folk are an older population and more at risk.
Tiocfaidh ĂĄr lĂĄ
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I count 11 countries on this with higher 14 day incidence rates than us. Some are much, much worse (Sweden currently about a third of Ireland but obviously the Swedes are doing it all wrong)
I see zero countries here with stricter measures than us (Netherlands the only one thatâs comparable)
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Covid is a taig conspiracy.
It was manufactured in a farmshed in South Armagh.
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Ireland has draconian measures in place, its unbelievable what is happening
Bressie coming up on Today FM to try lift peopleâs spirits
Guys can we not be giving encouragement to the posting of opinions from fellas who are experts in horsey horse? Remember Cheltenham has us where we are today.
Thanks guys. Stay safe.
Iâd still argue that the salient factor is the age and co-morbidity average of those affected.
Of course, in an ideal word, no-one would suffer, but the world is far from ideal.
The question which needs to be asked, and answered, is whether the restrictions are a price worth paying. At present, the only people being taken into account one one side of this equation are those who have died, who are at the extreme end of the scale. One needs to look at this from a slightly utilitarian point. If ICU beds were available, how many would have been intubated and ventilated had it been a bad dose of flu, i.e. if covid were taken out of the equation? (Iirc two thirds of people ventilated in ICU under ânormalâ circumstances never recover, and many elderly people with co-morbidity are not considered candidates for invasive treatment under normal circumstances) (maybe they should be, but thatâs a different argument, and I wouldnât want to be).
To balance this, the other end of the scale should be looked at, not Breda and Mary sitting at home on guaranteed income or pension, but the kids denied school, the students denied college, the business owners watching their livelihoods and lifeâs work go up in flames, the lonely, the mentally vulnerable, the people who canât see their relatives and grandchildren or whoâs relationships are withering on the vine.
This is a question which should be dragged openly and honestly into the public arena by the politicians leading the country, but they wonât, or canât, as Breda and Mary scream that they are murdering people.
Trouble is, as my ma said, dying is the ultimate sin these days. Thereâs too many folk around who seem to think they will never die, or, if they do, itâll be a bed if roses surrounded by loved ones wafting gently and comfortably into a golden afterlife.
An adult conversation is long overdue.
None of the main media voices or politicians have any skin in the game, the medics dictating things are a group of relatively anonymous journeymen now revelling in their 15 minutes of fame, and a swathe of the wider medical community are enjoying easier working conditions.
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This isnât having a go at you personally but this form of argument from people who are opposed to the lockdown is very frustrating.
It starts with the death rate is the same as the flu.
Then when I compare the two data sets at reputable news or medical sources., everyone says Covid 19 is far deadlier.
So then it shifts to the second wave is less deadly.
But we donât have all the data about this second wave yet and these measures are designed to suppress it before it becomes rampant. Which makes it sort of impossible to prove apart from country to country comparisons which are plagued by inconsistencies in data and in political slanting etc.
And then the argument moves to the underlying conditions and median age etc.
And those are all valid arguments too but they are separate points.
From what I can see this was more dangerous than the flu. There is predictive and real time daya which suggests itâs less dangerous than we thought or it has become less dangerous than we thought. But this data is much less conclusive than the wave one data (which itself is imperfect).
I see it as distinct questions:
- Is this many times more dangerous than the flu?
Letâs say maybe on that one for now.
- Is it sufficiently dangerous and infectious that it may overwhelm our hospital systems?
Again itâs a maybe but clearly our health system doesnât hold up well to pressure
- Is the profile of those who are more vulnerable distinguishable enough that itâs possible to approach this with the aim of addressing those cohorts specifically?
Yes. This seems possible.
- Is it socially acceptable to allow a higher death rate for those vulnerable people than would be the case in other years?
Very little tolerance here I expect.
- Are there measures that can be put in place to protect those people while minimising the impact on the wider population?
I think this could and should be explored more.
In any event what Iâm trying to say is they are separate questions. And when the WHO or someone says the death rate is 10X that of flu then itâs not really relevant to point out the median age of those dying. Thatâs a separate point but the first still needs addressing.
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Yeah agree with all of that. I just made a similar point somewhere in my contemporaneous ramble.
The age profile etc doesnât diminish the death rate. But it does ask a different question about how it is best controlled and balanced against other social needs.
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The issue is that death rates have absolutely plummetted.
There could be a lag but weâve gone from a 7% death rate from start to June to a 0.29% death rate from August to present. That could spike up again but at present the fatality rate is now 1/24th of what it was in the first wave.
0.11% cases are currently in ICU.
Surely these statistics have to warrant some serious discussions as whether the course of action we are pursuing is the right one.
If we then get data on those deaths, the 0.29% fatality rate and we learn that a large volume of that 0.29% had underlying health conditions, had terminal illnesses, were elderly people with very low life expectancy - should that not further impact our decision making?
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