Dominican Republic, Eritrea, Haiti, Indonesia, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar, Russia, and Tunisia have been added to the MHQ list.
Iām sure that this provides reassurance and that, like me, everyone now feels a lot safer.
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Point of order: they are not on the list until 4.00 am tomorrow morning. Iām braced for an influx of Tunisians here
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Cathal Walsh a stats guy from Galway on NPHET modelling 1000 cases a day in July here in morning Ireland. If hospitality is closed for 2 weeks more they model 10% less per day so 900 cases a day in July.
How many of those cases will lead to hospitalisation? Seeing as the reason we locked down is to protect the hospitals.
He didnāt say. Iām not sure how they can say that youāre 2.5 times more likely to end up in hospital with new variant. It cant be based on their own data anyway. Always causes a wry smile when they cherrypick the negative international data or experience and totally disregard the positive international data or evidence.
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The use of relative probability ie 2.5 times more likely isnāt much use without the context of absolute probability ie 1 in 1,000 vaccinated would end up in hospital (complete made up number by the way)
For example I could tell you I have a system that increases your chances of winning the lottery ten-fold, which sounds fantastic. Youād still have less than 1 in a million chance though ā¦ā¦
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Isnāt the problem though with the unvaccinated and partly vaccinated?
About 40% of adults are fully vaccinated now. How many u30s have been hospitalised with this since the outset? The lines been spouted by the NPHET and the like do not stand up to scrutiny.
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And the vaccinated apparently. The guy from NPHET said that if cases are high enough it will break through a sizeable number of vaccinated people which will lead to hospitalisations. His logic was that a small % of a high number can still be a high number. It revealed quite an insight into their thinking of how there is literally minimal risk tolerance. Quite where that leaves us next Winter is another matter.
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More risk for them but the fully vaccinated have not completely eliminated risk.
I donāt think itās unreasonable that NPHET risk models be made public considering the impact that they have on decision making. The most we get are a slide or so from a presentation. For example prior to budgets etc there is detailed information made public on macro-economic situation and various scenarios.
I think it would inform the public debate and also inhibit the use of models to push a particular agenda
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They never had a problem when winter flu was playing havoc with the health service and causing deaths.
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To kind of exhibit the absolute insanity of NPHETās thinking here.
There have been 64,561 positive cases of Covid in the north in the 0-39 age group since the virus was first recorded.
7 of those people have died.
Thatās a 1 in 9,223 chance of someone under 40 who gets Covid dying from it.
And thatās before you even take into account protection from the vaccine or those who died from it having underlying health conditions.
The u40s donāt actually even need the vaccine (fit and healthy ones anyway), the vaccines have proven to be effective against every variant yet. The data points towards this but the data is being ignored by NPHET. Why? And where are the media on investigating this?
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This idea of delaying reopening for 2 weeks is amateurish. Delay it for a month or not at all. Theyāre just setting themselves up for further disappointment.
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No but I guess the winter flu doesnāt sound as menacing or deadly as when you put a letter of the Greek alphabet as a prefix. I think a chance has been wasted in making drastic improvements to our health service. If money isnāt an option or there are no ācliff edgeā in terms of providing financial supports then why cant some of that money be put into healthcare system to increase capacity, take on new staff and break away from 2 tier health system. Maybe have respiratory illness specific buildings/centres where there you mitigate cross infection of general hospital population, staff and visitors. There is absolutely no discernible strategy and money isnāt or seemingly isnāt a limiting factor.
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If you mention this to a zero covider they will close their eyes, stick their fingers in their ears and shout āvariants variants variantsā over and over again.
The fourth estate has failed the people they are supposed to serve. The cunts.
The thing that is inarguable is that Covid is not really a threat to 0-39s. That is borne by the data.
Road deaths are a more likely cause of fatality for the u40s, should we stop u40s from using the roads?
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Hey follow the data. There is a chance as minimal as it is someone under 40 will end up in icu and die so shut it down. Leicester were 5000/1 to win the Premier league after all
Luke OāNeill on Newstalk. Real world data shows mix and match vaccines is effective. No justification for NIAC not to and not to give AZ to under 60s now either.
Data from US - from almost 900k vaccinated 1200 ended up in hospital and from 18k vaccinated 150 died so the vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing serious illness and death to the extent US CDC say all Covid deaths are now preventable
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Zero deaths reported here today for the first time since March last year.
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