At least we have a roadmap out. The numbers are high but no one is panicking. Thatâs what Ireland needs.
Another handy contract for EY to do the work the public service canât/wonât do
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OPINION
Cliff Taylor: Fewer Covid-19 anecdotes and more evidence please
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Toxic three-way relationship between Government, Nphet and business is not helping
Cliff Taylor
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about 5 hours ago
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âI saw four people coming and going . . . if people are being pressurised to come into the office, it isnât here.â File photograph: Getty
âI saw four people coming and going . . . if people are being pressurised to come into the office, it isnât here.â File photograph: Getty
Like most of the people that are lucky enough to be able to do so, I have worked from home for the vast bulk of the time since March. On the odd occasion that I have had to go into a largely empty office I have tried to cycle, to avoid public transport.
I suspect for the majority of office workers the story is the same. Many employers decided to start to open their offices over the summer as restrictions eased and have now reversed this. Some bigger multinational employers have said they donât want to see most people in the office until well into next year.
This week chief medical officer Tony Holohan said he had heard of offices that were open and some car parks and canteens that were full. This seems to be based largely on anecdotal evidence. It is really very difficult to get any other kind of evidence, though we will come back to what there is below.
So here is my anecdotal evidence. Cycling in, the suburban roads are still busy enough. Much of that appears to be school and local traffic. But when you get towards Dublin city centre the roads are quiet. From Fairview into the city centre is normally a nightmare of buses, taxis and potholes for the cyclist. Now it is quiet â not empty, but very quiet. The local coffee shop, doing takeaways, does not have the usual queues. Numbers at sandwich spots are way down.
The day I was in recently was sunny and I sat outside between office blocks in Georges Quay â just down from Tara Street bridge â in a place usually humming with activity. The six or seven blocks around were clearly empty. I saw four people coming and going in and out of them. If people are being pressurised to come into the office, it isnât here.
What hard evidence is there? Traffic data is hard to interpret because there are a lot of journeys for school, food shopping and the construction and manufacturing sectors are open. You canât build an office block or work on a production line from home.
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That said, CSO and Transport Infrastructure Ireland show traffic volumes at end October were half what they were this time last year and public transport volumes are down 75 per cent. Google data, which measures the numbers of people in various places shows movement around public transport hubs is down 62 per cent on pre-Covid levels. There is more movement than during the first lockdown, but activity levels are still way down.
Holohanâs comment was part of a testy set of exchanges during the week with Ibec, the employers group, whose chief executive Danny McCoy had criticised the National Public Health Emergency Team for its briefing strategy. As we move into the decision on what to do next, it is important that what happens is based on data and facts as much as possible and not on anecdotes. And while the team is not slow to throw out anecdotes â or perhaps it feels constrained from giving details in some cases â businesses and their representatives arenât beyond interpreting the facts in their favour either , each claiming that their particular operation is âsafeâ.
The problem really is that there is little evidence at all. A report from the Health Information and Quality Authority (Hiqa) this week did contain useful information on the areas judged to provide the main risk, typically indoor, badly ventilated settings and especially those involving âdining, drinking, exercising, singing or shouting [and] prolonged face-to-face conversationâ. But there was no detailed rankings of assessment of levels of risk in different settings.
Hiqa added that âinformation on superspreading events in the Irish context is currently lacking.â We know Covid-19 is spreading in households, but crucially we donât know where the person bringing it into the house is catching it. As Hiqa put it: âBetter Irish data on the source of infection and risk of transmission associated with different settings and activities would support public health education and awareness campaigns and further aid policy decisions.â
So a week out from major decisions on what to do next, we are sailing without a compass, seeing arguments between health experts, many of whom want to keep things shut and businesses who want to open them. And the lack of data of where the crucial spreading is taking place, undermines the force of the public health messaging .
Where to draw the line?
Like many other European countries, we are scrambling here. And this is not easy, nor is clear data available in all areas. You could even make the case, while it seems counter-intuitive, that given the delays in people brewing and transmitting the virus, the Level 3 restrictions had as much or even a bigger impact in the last couple of months than the Level 5 ones. Either way the numbers are not coming down as hoped for.
Yet in the increasingly toxic three way relationship between the Government,team and business, there seems little scope to try to tease this kind of thing out. We donât even have an agreed list with the most dangerous things at the top and the safest at the bottom, based on what evidence we have. If we did, the Government would have an easier job in deciding where to draw the line.
We may not like all the answers this provides in terms of what can open for Christmas. As it is, the Government will try to do its best and in doing so will probably run against public health advice in some areas and in others will disappoint businesses which have to stay shut.
We have to get beyond the current finger pointing on all sides which is undermining the message to the public and risking a succession of openings and Level 5 closings until enough of us have the jab â which is likely to still be some time
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NPHETâs surveillance isnât worth much because they didnât do the hard yards on tracing, or even doing exploratory studies, during the summer & they are wholly reliant on PCR testing.
The modellers have also thought far too linearly, not taking on board the impact of self imposed shielding has had on progression of the virus, or that the at risk are often unlikely to present symptoms until well after they have it. A look at the Hospitalisation Model they have tells you that quick.
We are just going to have to muddle our way through to a vaccine at this point though, they arenât every going to accept mistakes. This âanticipatory behaviourâ BS really takes the biscuit, they didnât allow for that or the time for Level 3 to take effect as they were absolutely obsessed with getting as close to March and April as they could in terms of peopleâs movements.
Thereâs less panic here than you think but youâre right the lack of any clear plan is ridiculous
I wounder if Tony will weasel hes way around a tribunal again. Hes done a great job with the cervical cancer one.
A few points were NPHET have failed throughout the crisis
- As you said the track and trace system. We were promised a world class system but what we got was they only went 48 hours and more or less allowed it to fall apart when thr numbers were low. Culminating in what happened a few weeks ago.
- Everyone of their models has been grossly inaccurate. Its not even funny how wrong they were. Its not solely on NPHET as this is the trend worldwide but they did put emphasis on these to push goverment decisions even when they realised the models were not accurate.
- Blaming the public and not pointing at the actual issues. Deaths in April were mainly in nursing homes yet it was Johnny or Mary going outside their 2km or someone not queuing correctly in aldi.
- Masks or no masks? If they came out at first and said they will help but we need to limit stick for the healthcare sector they would have gained more respect for honesty
- Leading by fear worked initially but most of the public see through the bullshit. That was called out here early on but now its really turning.
- No real plan other than lockdown the entire country. The roadmaps are a product of the goverment. Even with a vaccine on the horizon there appears to be no roll out plan.
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Jaysis - thatâs one hell of an article. If it even approaches the truth NPHET requires immediate dismantling and key members re-assigned to non-pandemic tasks. It essentially suggests that NPHET, at Tony Hs bidding, are knowingly undermining a democratically elected government from within. No matter how laudable they may think their aims or no matter how dysfunctional you view the govs performance that is beyond unacceptable.
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As to my comment above - Iâve no doubt the politicians are playing games too and this article, though quoting both sides sources, may not be a fair account. Some mess that itâs even at that point though
Shockingly high still
Every cloud eh?
We were supposed to do it up here but the Mrs has got Christmas Eve off this year so it might be a final Christmas down home. Sheâs working Stephenâs Day but not til 2pm, so itâll be a short enough stint
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Great to have a few cases in reserve for when they need to keep the pressure on the government.
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McDonkey on the news there now saying even the vaccines wonât solve the COVID problem.
We need a 7-10 year plan.
He needs to be locked down.
He didnât ?
The WHO said that long ago. The crisis wonât end with a vaccine, the only end will be a permanent change in peopleâs behaviour.