Coronavirus Thread - Pause before - The Final Battle (Part 1)

Ah here. They aren’t going around in there licking each other’s faces. You’d hope not anyway. If they are adhering to guidelines using ppe correctly etc the risk should be mitigated somewhat.

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Would you think you are more likely to catch a contagious virus in a hospital where sick people are being treated? Take your time

Not for Covid no. Growth was exponential in March when cases were doubling every 2-3 days. What you saw recently was growth from a very low base due to lack of social distancing among young people. It will never going to go back to exponential growth like March as long as most people are still social distancing.

The WHO are opposed to lockdowns and say they should only be used as a last resort.

OK. You think the rules for what is exponential growth are different for Covid? :rofl:

Explain how doubling every 2 weeks isn’t exponential?

Smell of Backtrack

We’ll be skulling pints of vaccine by Paddy’s Day.

With coronavirus cases around the world now at over 43 million, scientists have been working around the clock to develop a vaccine.

A vaccine developed by researchers at Oxford University has been tipped as the front-runner, and now the professor leading the project claims it ‘will be ready by Christmas.’

Professor Adrian Hill, founder and director of the University of Oxford’s Jenner Institute, claims that the vaccine is to get approval ahead of Christmas so it can be used on medics and the elderly before the trial has finished.

The vaccine will then be rolled out to the rest of the UK from early 2021, according to Professor Hill.

According to the Daily Mail, while speaking online to members of Oxford’s Magdalen College, Professor Hill said: “The initial licence would be for emergency use, not full approval.

Professor Adrian Hill, founder and director of the University of Oxford’s Jenner Institute (Image: REUTERS)

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this is the lie

Also the lie that the growth isn’t exponential. Now that could be a misunderstanding, but since he’s so clever you’d have to imagine it’s a lie and not a misunderstanding

If community spread were out of control as you claimed, cases would be doubling every 2-3 days (2.7 days precisely).

What do they see as a “last resort “ ??

Explain how doubling every 2 weeks isn’t exponential, which you claimed

If cases are growing exponentially as in March, or doubling every 2-3 days.

Is that their definition or yours ? I am not trying to argue here btw - just a bit curious . I had an interesting chat with a man I met out walking today

Right. I am going to deal with all the substantive issues in this post. You are a highly disingenuous individual – and a sneer – with a certain facility for detail. But I always find it hard to admire a secretarial mind, much as I find it hard to enthuse about the presence of carrots on a menu. Besides, you are an individual with a distinctly moderate intellect schooled into dreich superciliousness by your background – more of which later.

Let us recollect your core position. You stated “Covid is worse but not to a significant level” than “a severe flu season”. Those words were your exact words. I do not know if you are quite a moron but that statement is certainly a moronic one. Even in basic terms, does anyone recall Wales being locked down due to severe flu? You clearly have no sense of proportion, which is the basis of good judgement. The likes of you think shocking ‘snowflakes’, shocking ‘Brenda and Nuala’, is an end in itself. This craic is childishness brought to adult height. You cannot address the problem because your dismal and banal right wing/contrarian perspective – mostly a means of finding an alibi for your personality – simply does not allow appreciation of the problem’s scale. Those clowns who admire the likes of Kevin Myers are doomed to the same combination of ego and ridiculousness and overstatement. Doomed to stupidity, in a word.

Your sneery temperament remains a decidedly poor handmaiden for so limited an analytical mind. Too harsh? Not at all. Here is another of your core generalizations: “It’s very sad that our public policy always ascribes a value to life.” I doubt anyone puts too much of a value on you, which I suspect might account for why you are such an unpleasant individual, but even so I would hesitate to make such pathetic attention seeking the basis of a truism. Everyone’s punishment or reward is to be themself.

SWEDEN
There is no onus on me to say anything about Sweden. I am not the one proposing ‘Sweden’ as some sort of paradigm for pandemic response. I merely mentioned population density – which includes the ratio of single person households – and the health service as specifics that might not be replicable in other states. There are other factors, such as Swedes’ typical ‘obedience’ and desire to conform (which might well be linked to the Swedish state’s historical emphatic Protestantism). Which or whether, the onus is on you to demonstrate that such qualities, among other Swedish traits, are replicable in other contexts, other states. This onus is precisely on you (and Whatever His Handle Now Is). You have offered no such demonstration and therefore the argument annuls itself at source. And this point has nothing as yet to say about the nexus between replicatability and desirability.

Far more importantly, here is a reality yourself and WHHNI pointedly ignore. Sweden’s virus death rate became five times that of Denmark and ten times that of Finland and Norway. Your trenchant banalities about the Irish situation – which essentially amount to saying a Swedish non lockdown model should have been adopted – must properly deal with this facet. So answer this question: would a death rate in the 26 county Irish state five to ten times higher than occurred earlier this year have been/be acceptable to you? Answer this question in clear terms. You cannot pick and choose in a la carte fashion from the Swedish trolley.

GOVERNMENT
I think people’s attitude towards the role of government in ordinary life tells a lot about their background. You have the banal hostility of engrained entitlement towards the Irish government. All you see, in government, is taxes. Other people, because they possess the temperament and the intellect to reflect on their situation, might see opportunity and a force for potential good. I can scarcely think of a politician I admire but I do believe in politics.

My reading is that you come from a long line of opportunity. I come from a long line of non opportunity. Because I was born in 1967 rather than in 1947 or in 1927, I was able to go to university, thanks to Donogh O’Malley’s drive and foresight. If born earlier, I would probably have ended up at 25, out of frustration, an alcoholic painter and decorator, a character in the pubs of Thomastown. Instead, courtesy of a Category A County Council grant, I went to university, where I was told by several members of the English Department that I was the best student they had ever come across in 20 years, 30 years. Not bad going for the son of a plasterer from a bog standard comprehensive. But I never lost sight of what could have happened in the pubs of Thomastown. The Irish state, in every sense, made me. I did not have the luxury of banal hostility.

Your Ireland peaked in the mid 1960s, when the grandchildren of the State’s founders were born. My Ireland will peak in the mid 2040s, when the children of my youngest nieces and nephews are born. Your Ireland is Kevin Myers. My Ireland is David McWilliams. Your Ireland is rugby and Brian O’Connor. My Ireland is hurling and Kevin Cashman. Your Ireland is cold certainties. My Ireland is difficult curiosities. Your Ireland is Sebastian Barry. My Ireland is Kevin Barry.

I prefer my Ireland. And I think so does every sensible Irish person.

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WHO’s Kluge insisted that the situation facing Europe now was not the same as the one it faced back in March.

“Does it mean we are back to mid-March? No, we are not. Although we record two to three-times more cases per day compared to the April peak, we still observe five times less deaths, and a doubling time in hospital admissions still two-to-three times longer (than in March).”

“Community transmission was out of control”. This was your claim, not mine. If Covid transmission were out of control, as it was in March, cases would be doubling every 2-3 days.

Community transmission was out of control is the only lie on display.

WHO’s definition?

you asked me for possible reasons why it might be seen as a last resort, I gave you possible reasons… I didn’t claim anything

What do you think community transmission is by the way? I just want to check to see is it what NPHET define it to be

You claimed doubling every 2 weeks wasn’t exponential and won’t answer why you think that. Come on, out with it

Come on @Tierneevin1979

I see you bashing away.

Explain how something doubling every 2 weeks isn’t exponential growth. I’ll be seriously impressed if you do

I said it is not exponential for Covid. Read this sentence again and see if you can grasp it. If Covid community transmission were out of control similar to March, 2020, cases would be doubling every 2-3 days.

Community transmission is where there is no clear source of origin of the infection.