A bit of that too but if you look at the poll it had something like 37% of voters said they’d vote for FG but James Geoghegan getting 27%. 10% leaking away somewhere
He’s a bad candidate. This is as safe as houses constituency for FG as you could imagine.
Was it Lynn Boylan had to get to 20% first pref?
Much has been spoken about FGs campaign underperformance but for a party on a surge the Shinners aren’t exactly showing much of it 
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It’ll be interesting to see what happens. If Bacik wins the seat then it’ll be a four or five fold out-performance of Labour’s recent opinion poll results. Is too much store being placed on that Irish Times poll from a week or two back? Some FG and Green support leaking to Labour, it appears from that. The FF candidate is a comedy one. SF would need to be getting support in middle class suburbs to make a fist if it, in addition to their usual constituency base. Not sure if they’re making much impact among renters and such like in Rathmines, Harolds Cross etc. Some of these types may be back wfh in their ma’s houses in the provinces and not around to vote. All in all, @Fulvio_From_Aughnacloy probably has it right in that Labour are broadly irrelevant to a lot of people but some of their high profile individuals still command support. Bacik may have the profile to appeal to leafy DBS voters that want to punish the government.
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The support for Bacik around Rathmines comes from a nostalgia for Mary Robinson.
The Aontu motorcade with loudspeaker has arrived outside my window.
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This is now a full house of cunts . Harris & Mullaly pieces in the IT the icing on the cake
Is Byrne worth a €5 if she’s going to be hoovering up second preferences from everywhere?
Super stuff. It definitely puts a little excitement into Fridays count
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Probably not as nobody will reach the quota and she’ll be eliminated before the people likely to transfer to her in large numbers as the also rans with a lower first preference won’t make much difference. In a multi seat election she’d stand a decent chance.
She only really need stay ahead of Batshit.
Geoghegan now at 9/4. I’ll be having a go at that.
It boils down to the fact that this is one of the most FG constituencies in the country and it’s asking a lot of an electorally weak candidate like Bacik to gain the necessary first preference chunk to mount a challenge and be so transfer friendly that she can bridge Geoghegan’s probable lead. That poll from last week seems to have set the narrative, but I’m not sure how reliable it is and I suspect it overstates how close the first preference margins will be.
Turnout will be septic, and the demographic of those who are “always-voters” suits Geoghegan. He’s a poor candidate and will be a nothing TD, but he has all the trappings and connections to ensure his personal vote will show up, in addition to reliable FG core. Bacik is relying on corralling floaters, given the comparatively weak showing of Lab in DBS last time and their current national position. It’s not impossible, but she’s probably relying on a more fickle base of first prefs that may not materialise.
There tends to be a higher attrition rate of non-continuing votes in bye-elections too, where voters are less attuned to thinking about the field as a whole, focussing instead on singular candidates. That should help him as well, if Bacik fails to get large chunks of Boylan and Byrne’s votes when presumably eliminated.
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He’ll end up a Minister if he stays in there for long enough.
Renua, SDs and Justin Barrett tied for my vote !
I’m a broad church
Bacik being in the running to be elected is a terrible indictment of where all the parties are right now. She’ll be tossed out as soon as there is another election
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On Radio 1 this morning, they were reporting on this ByElection and they said that the electorate here do not vote for TD’s they vote for Ministers
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Not a fan of Bacik at all but Labour will be getting my first preference for the first time tomorrow.
can someone ladybird to this dimwit what is happening to the planet? record temperatures and he wants to make a protest vote
FFS
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