Dublin Bay South By Election - Anyone but Mannix

Wonder if Varadkar was thinking the same and chucking simple Simon under the same bus?

I think it has though. There is no way that FG should be losing this. It would be like SF not winning a by-election I’m Donegal or that now. It’s a FG stronghold and it must be worrying for them if they lose this seat.

The candidate is the issue for them in this case. They have lost the female vote here. Geoghegan’s links with Renua etc have been toxic for them with the KOC base. Bacik has targeted this in her campaign.

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They really are finished in Dublin.

If only that was repeated countrywide.

They are done pretty much everywhere outside of the midlands and Munster.

That’s a great auld sheet Gavan Reilly has provided.

PS, absolutely disgusted to see a sea of blue for St Mary’s National School on Haddington Road beside The 51. It just goes to show these FFG supporters walk, stand, sit and drink beside us.

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Didn’t realise how many right-wing candidates running in the constituency. And then you have Barrett, Cahill, Toibin, etc

Straw in the wind?
The Tom Johnson House box (Haddington Rd polling station) which is seen as something of a 'bellwether" in terms of demographics:
Out of 182 votes: Ivana Bacik has 52, Lynn Boylan 48, James Geoghegan 31 and Claire Byrne 22%. @rtenews

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Would be delighted for bacik. She’s piggybacking on a lot of hard work done by Humphreys in that area.

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Who’s going to win lads?

Bacik?

It’s too close to call.

This would be something else from Big Alan Kelly if he could pull this one off.

Fianna Fail has been a dying party for the last 30 years. It has been declining with the fall in mass going.

But the decline of Fianna Fail has to be understood in the context of the decline of the combined Fianna Fail/Fine Gael vote.

It’s the combined FF/FG share of the vote that has been irrevocably falling for the last 30 years. For a while, FF found a way to keep hold of the lion’s share of that combined vote. But FG found a niche that FF lost and have pushed out FF like the Delta variant has pushed out the Alpha.

Whereabouts on the street is that? Is it in that place where the Labour Relations Commission, National Print Museum and a few apartments are?

Yeh, I’d be in the most inner city part of the Tom Johnson House area carrying the Boylan vote while the denizens of St Mary’s Road would be FG territory.

Yes

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A run on the banks won’t necessarily be a jog along the Grand Canal :sweat_smile:

Does he know anyone that might handle PR/ management advice if the Labour candidate is successful…