Dublin Bay South By Election - Anyone but Mannix

Not sure. It’s a great name for a ballot box

Quite fitting for the salubrious environs.

The big 3 have a combined circa 75% of the vote at this stage. There’s not going to be that much transfers floating around before no 3 getting eliminated (prob Boylan) sweeps Bacik (prob no 2) to victory.

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Be interesting to see what if FG heave against Varadkar.

Coveney should give them a bit of a bounce in the polls by virtue of the fact that he’s marginally less of a cunt that Varadkar.

FF are done, O’Callaghan supposed to be the next leader and he oversaw that election campaign.

Thought Durcan ran a dire campaign for the SDs.

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People keep referring to Aontu as right wing with little basis at all.

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The split on class lines is fairly profound. I used to live in Gallery Quay apartments diagonally across from St Andrew’s Resource Centre on Pearse Street. Boylan got an absolutely huge vote there, think a lot of the flats further down along Pearse Street towards town would vote there.

As @tallback has mentioned, they usually open the inner city/Pearse St/Dublin 2 boxes first and work out into the leafier parts of the constituency. I recall the 2016 general election when Chris Andrews took a load of these early votes, and political novices were premature to call a seat for him. He barely registered a vote in Terenure, Rathgar etc and was squeezed out.

I don’t think Boylan has a chance of the seat but I’ll be interested to see if they made an impact in the flatland places like Rathmines when those boxes are opened.

It’s a poor result for the Soc Dems (I’d say their candidate was hurt by the other higher profile female candidates going). As an aside, is it mandatory for Soc Dems members to indicate their pronouns on social media profiles?

I imagine Bacik will stay close enough to Geoghegan as the remaining boxes are opened, and she’ll be transfer friendly and take the seat.

That’s all for me now.
Bandage (He/Him)

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Would imagine Geoghegan will top the poll looking at the figures there and the boxes to open.

Whether they will have enough of a cushion is another thing.

Leo Varadker is here on the leg press in Flyefit Blanchardstown. He’s repping away but I can tell his mind is on other things.

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For all the barbs, digs and theatre in the Dáil and the soap opera and histrionics on social media, it’s a great reflection on Ireland that a fairly divisive political party leader can work out in a public gym in a working class area without anyone smashing his head in with a kettlebell.

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A great win for the party of James Connolly.

60% reporting and Geoghan still hasn’t pulled clear of Bacik. She seems to be holding her own. Geoghan in bother now.

Beware of the smoothie girl.

Apparently a lot of disillusioned FF/Green voters have voted for Bacik as a kind of neutral candidate in the face of alternate choices in FG and SF.

Professor Bacik outpolls in Ranelagh and Beechwood, which is Hugh and Mary’s home turf. That’s it really. Geoghegan may well still top the poll, but Professor Bacik is doing too well out in the suburbs for him to beat her.

The kettlebells are on a different floor mate

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eh kettlebells are on a different floor mate

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Greens get into power - middle ground support abandons them because they are in government and vote labour

Labour get into power - middle ground support abandons them because they are in government and vote Green

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Crybaby O’Donovan is having a meltdown on radio here :rofl:

This is golden. What a fuckwad O’Donovan is. Liability.

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The leg press is only a cod. He needs to be doing BB reverse lunges