I agree with the your supporting rhetoric generally but couldnt listen to Chambers.
Iâd say itâs the opposite. He has no beliefs of his own and did what he thought his voters might like him to do.
Not many running mates canvass together. E OâB one of the smartest cookies in the DĂĄil, could they have carved up the constituency ala Healy RaeâŚ
If SF get two here it would be a serious result!
âWardy1916â 
2 Likes
Are you anti-choice? Would explain your paranoia and conspiracy theorising anyway.
Youâd have preferred if his Twitter handle was @WardyRIC no doubt. 
cc @Copper_pipe
If you take the 19 who were likely or possible and make them all certs now on the back of SF momentum, then youâd need all 11 seats where theyâve a chance to win to drop before they even hit 30.
Going by the betting; of those 11, a 2nd in Louth, Donegal and Dublin mid west, now look nailed on along with one in Dublin West and Cork South Central.
Kildare South looks unlikely now, but a 2nd in Cavan Monaghan has come out of nowhere to look very likely.
So you are up to 25, without anything major happening.
Then thereâs Wexford, Meath East, Meath West, Kerry & DBS where theyâve a live chance.
Longford Westmeath, Mayo, Roscommon-Galway are unlikely outside shots at this stage, unless it was a massive surge nationwide.
So a real chance of 30, but it would require all the momentum to continue.
Of the rest Kildare N & S, Limerick County, Clare, Cork South West, Dublin Rathdown, Dun Laoghaoire, Galway East & West all look like no hopers.
Summary;
SF should get 25 on a reasonable day, 30 on a good day, anything over 30 would be an unbelievable day for them and would require all possibles to drop and some unlikelyâs. 9 of the 42 look to be no hopers, so 33 is a realistic cap on what they could get even on a day where everything goes for them.
Kildare South definitely ruled out, the candidateâs been on holidays for most of the campaign
And I thought a cunt booking holidays during Championship was bad.
I wouldnât rule out Kildare South for SF. Longford-Westmeath is a likely pick up, they missed it by a whisker last time. Mayo definitely in play. Tipp in play also. Galway West more unlikely but in play. Clare could even be in play. 36 at a very max Iâd say but 30-33 is more likely.
Iâm only going by the betting but in Galway West sheâs 9th in the betting for a 5 seater. Clare sheâs 7th in betting for a 4 seater, Kildare 6th in the betting for a 3 seater.
SF were sixth in Galway West last time and not far off. That poll last week seems to have persuaded a lot of people that theyâre out of the running this time and the presence of Connolly and OâTuathail complicates matters but big national swings could make all that irrelevant. I have a feeling the Greens are falling away there. You can still get 11/5 on the SF candidate.
As regards Kildare South, I doubt many people are aware of the SF candidateâs holiday and I doubt theyâll care.
Clare is a tricky one to predict. Last seat between FG2, McNamara, Garvey of the Greens and SF Iâd say. But I find it hard to envisage any of the first three there actually taking the seat. SF definitely in with a shout I think.
All three are a nice price if you are confident, as is the LW one, bookies seem to think the 4 in front of her are certs and are offering 17/10 even though sheâs 5th in betting for a 4 seater. The odds they are offering are generally horrendous so thatâs telling enough that they are confident she wonât get in
Hard to see Clare . I think the S.F. vote is clustered hugely in certain areas. They are going to miss out due to too few candidates and weak candidates to get the full benefit of the surge .
1 Like
SF candidate in Longford-Westmeath is Mullingar based. Willie Penrose was Mullingar and is not standing. I think SFâs odds are down to poor local election performance in the area. But I think that means nothing now, the ground has shifted drastically. Iâd put much more store in the fact SF almost won the seat in 2016. So there are loads of people out there in the constituency who are willing to vote SF. A small swing will win it. Penrose himself was considered a no hoper in 1992 when he won the seat. Anywhere that has elected Labour TDs in the past is in play for SF, so Clare would fall into that category.
Forget about a SF pick up in LW she lost her seat in the locals and campaign is non existent in Mullingar which is her base.
Penrose is from Ballynacarrigy which is where Troy is from he cannibalised Willies vote last time out and will take the majority of whatâs left of it in Mullingar and surrounding hinterland. Labour candidate Mangan a former WH footballer is a complete no hoper.
Which one is the Dow?
The guy on the right. Shane Dowling, hurls with Limerick.