Wikipedia says that turnout was 67% in 2007. Is that accurate? Surely it’ll be a good bit higher than that this time.
66% excluding spoiled votes which was up a few % on 02… Suspect there are a large amount of people who are on the register this year incorrectly. Like you though I expect it to be higher. Is 5/1 with Paddy to be between 70 and 75 which is perhaps a better bet.
A sustained gamble on Alan Farrell continues in Dublin North.
13/8 from an opening 9/1
James Heffernan is the only Labour candidate running in Limerick, yet i see he is 4/1 to win a seat. :blink:
Three seats up for grabs…
John Dillon 5/4. :rolleyes:
I had a punt anyway. 70-75% isn’t that high considering all that’s happened in the last six months.
Scottish yes vote under 47.5% is 5/6. No way yes vote will be that high. Late surge against independence will happen
Ahem…
He’s only gone and done it again. 
never doubted you mate
Greens are 4/1 to get over 1.5 seats in UK general election. That’s good value considering:
- Recent poll had them ahead of Lib Dems
- Labour’s recent shift to the right suits them
- Huge disenfranchisement with Westminster politics and against big parties
- Lucas will retain her seat in Brighton
- More targeted seat approach in election this time. Solid basis on which to build on Norwich, and Oxford and in with right good chance in Bristol
- Greens likely to be excluded from tv debates and that might suit them as again seen as anti establishment which could work to their advantage
[QUOTE=“Raymond Crotty, post: 1037777, member: 25”]Greens are 4/1 to get over 1.5 seats in UK general election. That’s good value considering:
- Recent poll had them ahead of Lib Dems
- Labour’s recent shift to the right suits them
- Huge disenfranchisement with Westminster politics and against big parties
- Lucas will retain her seat in Brighton
- More targeted seat approach in election this time. Solid basis on which to build on Norwich, and Oxford and in with right good chance in Bristol
- Greens likely to be excluded from tv debates and that might suit them as again seen as anti establishment which could work to their advantage[/QUOTE]
Any chance of them picking something up in Scotland? They seem to be making inroads there? (Actually that’s a separate party is it? Do they still count for the bet?)
It is a separate party and I don’t imagine they include them for the bet. Greens chances of picking up a seat in Scotland is slim and only chance would be with a pact with the SNP. Would be good move by the SNP to try and continue to make Independence broader than the SNP though cannot see it happening.
That said 4/1 is very generous on greens to win more than a seat in England.
[QUOTE=“Raymond Crotty, post: 1037777, member: 25”]Greens are 4/1 to get over 1.5 seats in UK general election. That’s good value considering:
- Recent poll had them ahead of Lib Dems
- Labour’s recent shift to the right suits them
- Huge disenfranchisement with Westminster politics and against big parties
- Lucas will retain her seat in Brighton
- More targeted seat approach in election this time. Solid basis on which to build on Norwich, and Oxford and in with right good chance in Bristol
- Greens likely to be excluded from tv debates and that might suit them as again seen as anti establishment which could work to their advantage[/QUOTE]
Per oddschecker the black & tans go 5/1 for 2 or more, 7/5 for 1 and 5/6 for none.
6/1 for between 2-5 seats
I have it on good authority that the first past the post system is quite a disadvantage to minority parties like the greens and favours the incumbents. But Australians have same system and would be more anti environment than the UK and they won a seat in each of the 6 states so…
Chaaaaargeeeee
Good to see this thread bumped. Thanks Raymond. I want more gambling and less mid-life crisis threads, especially now that the gaa season is more or less at an end.
[QUOTE=“Whiplash, post: 1038104, member: 638”]I have it on good authority that the first past the post system is quite a disadvantage to minority parties like the greens and favours the incumbents. But Australians have same system and would be more anti environment than the UK and they won a seat in each of the 6 states so…
Chaaaaargeeeee[/QUOTE]
Massive disadvantage all right. Yougov poll today has greens in fourth place at 6% so renewed calls for them to be included in the debates.
New Scottish Labour Leader Neil Findlay at 3/1 (victor).
Election is done through av.
A third of votes go to MSP/MPS and MEPs (Murphy will win majority heere
Another third go to unions and socialist societies (Findlay will win here with unions already stating they won’t support blue Labour Murphy)
Final third goes to Labour members. Expect this to be more evenly split but if Labour elect Murphy they will continue to be outflanked by SNP on the left and the Scottish electorate don’t like blue Labour.
[QUOTE=“Raymond Crotty, post: 1039161, member: 25”]New Scottish Labour Leader Neil Findlay at 3/1 (victor).
Election is done through av.
A third of votes go to MSP/MPS and MEPs (Murphy will win majority heere
Another third go to unions and socialist societies (Findlay will win here with unions already stating they won’t support blue Labour Murphy)
Final third goes to Labour members. Expect this to be more evenly split but if Labour elect Murphy they will continue to be outflanked by SNP on the left and the Scottish electorate don’t like blue Labour.[/QUOTE]
Interesting. What odds is Murphy? He has the higher profile and will be rightly favourite but 3/1 is a tempting price to oppose him. The referendum completely changed views towards him. Murphy might be saved by disenfranchised members having already left Labour or not bothering to vote because of disillusionment.