These are my final predictions for 2016.
Each prediction lists the order in which I think TDs are likely to be elected.
Straightforward looking constituency and difficult to see any surprises. Most boring five seater in the country.
Order: McGuinness (FF), Phelan (FG), Funchion (SF), Deering (FG), Aylward (FF)
2 FG, 2 FF, 1 SF
Should be a very close battle between Joe O’Reilly (FG) and Kathryn Reilly (SF). FG gene pool candidate Sean Conlan could upset FG’s plan for 2 here. Reilly (SF) is quite transfer friendly which may swing it for her.
Smith (FF), Humphreys (FG), O’Caoilean (SF), Reilly (SF)
2 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG
Harty has emerged as the strongest Independent and will be elected. Poll last week called a seat for SF but I’m not so sure. I think the last seat will be either LAB or FG with whoever is behind electing the other on transfers. Gut feeling but I’ll go with McNamara (LAB) as he might be more transfer friendly overall.
Dooley (FF), Breen (FG), Harty (IND), McNamara (LAB)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND, 1 LAB
Cork East (4)
FG running three candidates here which is one too many. I think they’ll only get one elected. Despite chaos at local level I think Buckley can do just enough to hold the seat for SF. Sherlock to also hang on.
O’Keeffe (FF), Stanton (FG), Sherlock (LAB), Buckley (SF)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB, 1 SF
Cork North Central (4)
SF have a good chance of bringing in two seats here. Last seat should be a battle between SF and IND socialist Mick Barry.
O’Brien (SF), Kelleher (FF), Murphy (FG), Gould (SF)
2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF
Cork North West (3)
Usually boring constituency but O’Shea (IND) has a good chance of upsetting the second FG seat here.
Creed (FG), Moynihan (FF), O’Shea (IND)
1 FG , 1 FF, 1 IND
Cork SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
I’ve consistently called this seat for SF. In an urban four seater there has to be a left seat.
McGrath (FF), Coveney (FG), Martin (FF), O’Laoighaire (SF)
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
Cork SOUTH WEST (3)
Daly (FG), Harrington (FG), Murphy-O’Mahony (FF)
Boring blueshirt hick constituency, FG usually get two here and will again. FF to hold off various INDs for the last seat.
2 FG, 1 FF
FG look to be fading fast here, it’s never been a heartland for them. FF on the comeback trail. Gallagher (FF) wouldn’t be running unless he thought he’d win. Should be an IND seat and I’m gong with Pringle to hold as the most established one.
Doherty (SF), McConallogue (FF), MacLochlainn (SF), Pringle (IND), Gallagher (FF)
2 SF, 2 FF, 1 IND
DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
I’m going with the conservative reading of this constituency.
Bruton (FG), McGrath (IND), Haughey (FF), MacDonncha (SF), Broughan (IND)
2 IND, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF
DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
Eamon Ryan’s poor poll performance is a surprise. While I would not write him off entirely, he’s in trouble. I think the FG vote will not stick with Creighton as expected. O’Connell is the sort of young, attractive candidate who will do well and attract non-FG transfers. Humphreys to just about hold based on the poll results.
Murphy (FG), Andrews (SF), Humphreys (LAB), O’Connell (FG)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB
DUBLIN CENTRAL (3)
Christy Burke could take this seat from Maureen O’Sullivan but I’m sticking with the established pattern. Costello (LAB) is toast.
McDonald (SF), Donoghue (FG), O’Sullivan (IND)
1 FG, 1 IND, 1 SF
DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
LAB to hold on by the skin of their teeth.
Daly (IND), O’Brien (FF), Reilly (FG), O’Reilly (SF), Ryan (LAB)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND, 1 LAB
DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
Looks to be two seats between FF, FG2 (Keating) and Kenny. Expect Curran to be well ahead of Keating on first preferences and that will make the gap unbridgeable. Kenny to scrape the last seat.
O’Broin (SF), Fitzgerald (FG), Curran (FF), Kenny (AAA)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA, 1 FF
DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
First two are certain. Rock (FG) to hold off McAuliffe (FF) on LAB transfers.
Ellis (SF), Shortall (SOC DEM), Rock (FG)
1 SF, 1 Soc Dem , 1 FG
DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
Alan Shatter to lose. He’s never had a particularly high vote here even on good days for FG and appears to be behind his running-mate Madigan. Bookies say FG have two in the bag but I’m not so sure. Three way battle for the last seat with Alex White (LAB) also being involved but Catherine Martin of the Greens can cause a shock.
Ross (IND), Madigan (FG), Martin (GREEN)
1 IND (Ross), 1 FG, 1 GREEN
DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
Three way battle for last two seats. Eric Byrne (LAB) to lose out.
O’Snodaigh (SF), Byrne (FG), Collins (IND), Smith (PBPA)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND, 1 PBPA
DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
Think SF can get two here.
Murphy (AAA), Crowe (SF), Brophy (FG), Lahart (FF), Holland (SF)
1 FG, 2 SF, 1 AAA, 1 FF
DUBLIN WEST (4)
Looks done and dusted. Burton has been disastrous.
Varadkar (FG), Donnelly (SF), Chambers (FF), Coppinger (AAA)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA, 1 FF
DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
Ceann Comhairle makes this an effective three-seater. Boyd-Barrett to top the poll. Hanafin, the cow, to sneak back in.
Barrett (automatic), Boyd-Barrett (AAA), Mitchell-O’Connor (FG), Hanafin (FF)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 AAA
GALWAY EAST (3)
Another boring conservative hick constituency with only the identities of the FG and FF TDs to be decided. Turncoat Keaveney to be chucked out.
Canney (IND), Connaughton (FG), Rabbitte (FF)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND
GALWAY WEST (5)
Three right, two left in my view. O’Clochartaigh to hold off Nolan (LAB) and O’Mahony (FG) by the skin of his teeth.
O’Cuiv (FF), Kyne (FG), Grealish (IND), Connolly (IND), O’Clochartaigh (SF)
1 FF, 1 FG, 2 IND, 1 SF
Healy Raes look to have decimated Ferris’s vote here. Hard to see how he’ll hang on even if it means Tralee has no TD.
M. Healy-Rae (IND), D. Healy Rae (IND), Deenihan (FG), Griffin (FG), Brassil (FF)
**1 FF, 2 FG, 2 IND **
KILDARE NORTH (4)
Catherine Murphy will romp back in with a huge vote. Stagg to scrape back in.
Murphy (SOC DEM), Durkan (FG), Lawless (FF), Stagg (LAB)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB , 1 SOC DEM
KILDARE SOUTH (3)
LAB to hold off FF2 for the final seat based on Jack Wall’s personal vote legacy.
Heydon (FG), O’Fearghail (FF), Wall (LAB)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB
Fleming (FF), Flanagan (FG), Stanley (SF)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
LIMERICK CITY (4)
SF gain from LAB looks certain. O’Donnell should have enough to hold for FG.
O’Dea (FF), Noonan (FG), Quinlivan (SF), O’Donnell (FG)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
Emmett O’Brien to be swept in on the Independent tide. Going for O’Donovan over Neville for the FG seat based purely on bookies’ odds.
Collins (FF), O’Brien (IND), O’Donovan (FG)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND
While Boxer Moran is assumed to be in a battle for the last seat I think he’ll do well across the board. Penrose hanging on but should hold off McFadden (FG) and Hogan (SF).
Moran (IND), Bannon (FG), Troy (FF), Penrose (LAB)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB, 1 IND
Nash to be another high-profile Labour casualty. Definitely two SF seats here.
Adams (SF), O’Dowd (FG), Bhreathnach (FF), Munster (SF), Fitzpatrick (FG)
2 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF
Ring and Kenny’s transfers to bring Mulherin over the line again.
Ring (FG), Kenny (FG), Calleary (FF), Mulherin (FG)
3 FG, 1 FF
MEATH EAST (3)
Byrne certain. McEntee to be the stronger FG candidate based primarily on her name and Doherty’s vileness. O’Rourke can take this seat for SF.
Byrne (FF), McEntee (FG), O’Rourke (SF)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
MEATH WEST (3)
Toibin (SF), Cassells (FF), English (FG)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
Fitzpatrick to take a second FF seat. Leahy (RENUA) is bookies’ favourite but Nolan (SF) will go closer than him in my view.
Cowen (FF), Corcoran-Kennedy (FG), Fitzpatrick (FF)
2 FF, 1 FG
Naughten is FG gene pool and will take much of the FG vote, thus preventing Hopkins (FG) from taking the third seat. FG brand is toxic here. Roscommon is the kind of thick bogger county that will vote for a GAA player. Cake to take a seat.
Fitzmaurice (IND), Naughten (IND), Curran (FF)
2 IND, 1 FF
Media campaign against Kelly to bring out the vote for him. Seamus Healy to be the one to lose out in a tight race.
Lowry (IND), Hayes (FG), Kelly (LAB), Cahill (FF), McGrath (IND)
2 IND, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB
SLIGO - LEITRIM (4)
Vote splitting among FGs could deny them a second seat but I think they’ll just hang on. Possible challenge from Casserly (IND).
Kenny (SF), McSharry (FF), McLoughlin (FG), Reynolds (FG)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF
Think Halligan will top the poll here (15/8). Butler (FF) to beat Coffey (FG) for the last seat.
Halligan (IND), Deasy (FG), Cullinane (SF), Butler (FF)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND
Howlin should have enough in Labour’s biggest banker seat. Tough call for the last seat here. Would be a hammer blow to FG to lose this one but I expect D’Arcy to hang on.
Wallace (IND), Kehoe (FG), Browne (FF), Howlin (LAB) , D’Arcy (FG)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB, 1 IND (Wallace)
Donnelly to top the poll ahead of Harris. Timmins (RENUA) to be a casualty.
Donnelly (SOC DEM), Harris (FG), Brady (SF), Casey (FF), Doyle (FG)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 SOC DEM, 1 FF
FINE GAEL 50
FIANNA FAIL 39
SINN FEIN 29
ANTI-AUSTERITY ALLIANCE 4
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS 3