Election Predictions

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These are my final predictions for 2016.

Each prediction lists the order in which I think TDs are likely to be elected.

Carlow-Kilkenny (5)
Straightforward looking constituency and difficult to see any surprises. Most boring five seater in the country.
Order: McGuinness (FF), Phelan (FG), Funchion (SF), Deering (FG), Aylward (FF)
2 FG, 2 FF, 1 SF

Cavan-Monaghan (4)
Should be a very close battle between Joe O’Reilly (FG) and Kathryn Reilly (SF). FG gene pool candidate Sean Conlan could upset FG’s plan for 2 here. Reilly (SF) is quite transfer friendly which may swing it for her.
Smith (FF), Humphreys (FG), O’Caoilean (SF), Reilly (SF)
2 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG

Clare (4)
Harty has emerged as the strongest Independent and will be elected. Poll last week called a seat for SF but I’m not so sure. I think the last seat will be either LAB or FG with whoever is behind electing the other on transfers. Gut feeling but I’ll go with McNamara (LAB) as he might be more transfer friendly overall.
Dooley (FF), Breen (FG), Harty (IND), McNamara (LAB)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND, 1 LAB

Cork East (4)
FG running three candidates here which is one too many. I think they’ll only get one elected. Despite chaos at local level I think Buckley can do just enough to hold the seat for SF. Sherlock to also hang on.
O’Keeffe (FF), Stanton (FG), Sherlock (LAB), Buckley (SF)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB, 1 SF

Cork North Central (4)
SF have a good chance of bringing in two seats here. Last seat should be a battle between SF and IND socialist Mick Barry.
O’Brien (SF), Kelleher (FF), Murphy (FG), Gould (SF)
2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF

Cork North West (3)
Usually boring constituency but O’Shea (IND) has a good chance of upsetting the second FG seat here.
Creed (FG), Moynihan (FF), O’Shea (IND)
1 FG , 1 FF, 1 IND

Cork SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
I’ve consistently called this seat for SF. In an urban four seater there has to be a left seat.
McGrath (FF), Coveney (FG), Martin (FF), O’Laoighaire (SF)
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

Cork SOUTH WEST (3)
Daly (FG), Harrington (FG), Murphy-O’Mahony (FF)
Boring blueshirt hick constituency, FG usually get two here and will again. FF to hold off various INDs for the last seat.
2 FG, 1 FF

DONEGAL (5)
FG look to be fading fast here, it’s never been a heartland for them. FF on the comeback trail. Gallagher (FF) wouldn’t be running unless he thought he’d win. Should be an IND seat and I’m gong with Pringle to hold as the most established one.
Doherty (SF), McConallogue (FF), MacLochlainn (SF), Pringle (IND), Gallagher (FF)
2 SF, 2 FF, 1 IND

DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
I’m going with the conservative reading of this constituency.
Bruton (FG), McGrath (IND), Haughey (FF), MacDonncha (SF), Broughan (IND)
2 IND, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF

DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
Eamon Ryan’s poor poll performance is a surprise. While I would not write him off entirely, he’s in trouble. I think the FG vote will not stick with Creighton as expected. O’Connell is the sort of young, attractive candidate who will do well and attract non-FG transfers. Humphreys to just about hold based on the poll results.
Murphy (FG), Andrews (SF), Humphreys (LAB), O’Connell (FG)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB

DUBLIN CENTRAL (3)
Christy Burke could take this seat from Maureen O’Sullivan but I’m sticking with the established pattern. Costello (LAB) is toast.
McDonald (SF), Donoghue (FG), O’Sullivan (IND)
1 FG, 1 IND, 1 SF

DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
LAB to hold on by the skin of their teeth.
Daly (IND), O’Brien (FF), Reilly (FG), O’Reilly (SF), Ryan (LAB)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND, 1 LAB

DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
Looks to be two seats between FF, FG2 (Keating) and Kenny. Expect Curran to be well ahead of Keating on first preferences and that will make the gap unbridgeable. Kenny to scrape the last seat.
O’Broin (SF), Fitzgerald (FG), Curran (FF), Kenny (AAA)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA, 1 FF

DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
First two are certain. Rock (FG) to hold off McAuliffe (FF) on LAB transfers.
Ellis (SF), Shortall (SOC DEM), Rock (FG)
1 SF, 1 Soc Dem , 1 FG

DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
Alan Shatter to lose. He’s never had a particularly high vote here even on good days for FG and appears to be behind his running-mate Madigan. Bookies say FG have two in the bag but I’m not so sure. Three way battle for the last seat with Alex White (LAB) also being involved but Catherine Martin of the Greens can cause a shock.
Ross (IND), Madigan (FG), Martin (GREEN)
1 IND (Ross), 1 FG, 1 GREEN

DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
Three way battle for last two seats. Eric Byrne (LAB) to lose out.
O’Snodaigh (SF), Byrne (FG), Collins (IND), Smith (PBPA)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND, 1 PBPA

DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
Think SF can get two here.
Murphy (AAA), Crowe (SF), Brophy (FG), Lahart (FF), Holland (SF)
1 FG, 2 SF, 1 AAA, 1 FF

DUBLIN WEST (4)
Looks done and dusted. Burton has been disastrous.
Varadkar (FG), Donnelly (SF), Chambers (FF), Coppinger (AAA)
1 FG, 1 SF, 1 AAA, 1 FF

DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
Ceann Comhairle makes this an effective three-seater. Boyd-Barrett to top the poll. Hanafin, the cow, to sneak back in.
Barrett (automatic), Boyd-Barrett (AAA), Mitchell-O’Connor (FG), Hanafin (FF)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 AAA

GALWAY EAST (3)
Another boring conservative hick constituency with only the identities of the FG and FF TDs to be decided. Turncoat Keaveney to be chucked out.
Canney (IND), Connaughton (FG), Rabbitte (FF)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

GALWAY WEST (5)
Three right, two left in my view. O’Clochartaigh to hold off Nolan (LAB) and O’Mahony (FG) by the skin of his teeth.
O’Cuiv (FF), Kyne (FG), Grealish (IND), Connolly (IND), O’Clochartaigh (SF)
1 FF, 1 FG, 2 IND, 1 SF

KERRY (5)
Healy Raes look to have decimated Ferris’s vote here. Hard to see how he’ll hang on even if it means Tralee has no TD.
M. Healy-Rae (IND), D. Healy Rae (IND), Deenihan (FG), Griffin (FG), Brassil (FF)
**1 FF, 2 FG, 2 IND **

KILDARE NORTH (4)
Catherine Murphy will romp back in with a huge vote. Stagg to scrape back in.
Murphy (SOC DEM), Durkan (FG), Lawless (FF), Stagg (LAB)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB , 1 SOC DEM

KILDARE SOUTH (3)
LAB to hold off FF2 for the final seat based on Jack Wall’s personal vote legacy.
Heydon (FG), O’Fearghail (FF), Wall (LAB)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB

LAOIS (3)
Yawn.
Fleming (FF), Flanagan (FG), Stanley (SF)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

LIMERICK CITY (4)
SF gain from LAB looks certain. O’Donnell should have enough to hold for FG.
O’Dea (FF), Noonan (FG), Quinlivan (SF), O’Donnell (FG)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF

LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
Emmett O’Brien to be swept in on the Independent tide. Going for O’Donovan over Neville for the FG seat based purely on bookies’ odds.
Collins (FF), O’Brien (IND), O’Donovan (FG)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND

LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
While Boxer Moran is assumed to be in a battle for the last seat I think he’ll do well across the board. Penrose hanging on but should hold off McFadden (FG) and Hogan (SF).
Moran (IND), Bannon (FG), Troy (FF), Penrose (LAB)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB, 1 IND

LOUTH (5)
Nash to be another high-profile Labour casualty. Definitely two SF seats here.
Adams (SF), O’Dowd (FG), Bhreathnach (FF), Munster (SF), Fitzpatrick (FG)
2 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF

MAYO (4)
Ring and Kenny’s transfers to bring Mulherin over the line again.
Ring (FG), Kenny (FG), Calleary (FF), Mulherin (FG)
3 FG, 1 FF

MEATH EAST (3)
Byrne certain. McEntee to be the stronger FG candidate based primarily on her name and Doherty’s vileness. O’Rourke can take this seat for SF.
Byrne (FF), McEntee (FG), O’Rourke (SF)
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

MEATH WEST (3)
Looks obvious.
Toibin (SF), Cassells (FF), English (FG)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF

OFFALY (3)
Fitzpatrick to take a second FF seat. Leahy (RENUA) is bookies’ favourite but Nolan (SF) will go closer than him in my view.
Cowen (FF), Corcoran-Kennedy (FG), Fitzpatrick (FF)
2 FF, 1 FG

ROSCOMMON (3)
Naughten is FG gene pool and will take much of the FG vote, thus preventing Hopkins (FG) from taking the third seat. FG brand is toxic here. Roscommon is the kind of thick bogger county that will vote for a GAA player. Cake to take a seat.
Fitzmaurice (IND), Naughten (IND), Curran (FF)
2 IND, 1 FF

TIPPERARY (5)
Media campaign against Kelly to bring out the vote for him. Seamus Healy to be the one to lose out in a tight race.
Lowry (IND), Hayes (FG), Kelly (LAB), Cahill (FF), McGrath (IND)
2 IND, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB

SLIGO - LEITRIM (4)
Vote splitting among FGs could deny them a second seat but I think they’ll just hang on. Possible challenge from Casserly (IND).
Kenny (SF), McSharry (FF), McLoughlin (FG), Reynolds (FG)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF

WATERFORD (4)
Think Halligan will top the poll here (15/8). Butler (FF) to beat Coffey (FG) for the last seat.
Halligan (IND), Deasy (FG), Cullinane (SF), Butler (FF)
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND

WEXFORD (5)
Howlin should have enough in Labour’s biggest banker seat. Tough call for the last seat here. Would be a hammer blow to FG to lose this one but I expect D’Arcy to hang on.
Wallace (IND), Kehoe (FG), Browne (FF), Howlin (LAB) , D’Arcy (FG)
2 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB, 1 IND (Wallace)

WICKLOW (5)
Donnelly to top the poll ahead of Harris. Timmins (RENUA) to be a casualty.
Donnelly (SOC DEM), Harris (FG), Brady (SF), Casey (FF), Doyle (FG)
2 FG, 1 SF, 1 SOC DEM, 1 FF

OVERALL:

FINE GAEL 50
FIANNA FAIL 39
SINN FEIN 29
LABOUR 9
ANTI-AUSTERITY ALLIANCE 4
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS 3
GREEN 1
PBPA 1
RENUA 0
INDEPENDENTS 22

4 Likes
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Whelan is making big claims that he has Stanley in his sights. I’d be surprised, but he seems to have a huge anti wind vote behind him, or so he claims. It might not be the yawn you (and everyone else tbf) predict.

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@TreatyStones can you post your predictions in here

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If anything like those numbers are returned there won’t be an FF/FG coalition. On those numbers FG and FF will court SF. So you’ll either have an FG/SF coalition with Lowry to make up the numbers or an FF/SF/Lab government with a couple of hayseeds like the Healy Raes getting every pothole in Kerry fixed for 5 years. In fact I think FF think this is the likely outcome because they have been staunch against a coalition with FG in the last couple of days.

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There’s a lot of talk in the last week locally about the Sinn Fein candidate Johnny Mythen sneaking in. I can’t have that myself. Darcy is also the bookies choice but he won’t have as loyal a following in his local area as previously so I can see him suffering as a result. Malcolm Byrne has now drifted out to 5/2 to win a seat from 4/5 and is huge value in my opinion.

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Malcolm Byrne is at 4/9 with Paddy Power this morning. D’Arcy is 4/6.

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It’ll be Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein. Fuck Noonan and Kenny

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If Labour do manage to get 9 seats they will actually end up in a very strong position.
The way things are panning out they could end up being king makers in any coalition.

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Labour will be in chaos after the election with Joan gone along with a couple of prospective leaders.

AK47 will be gunning for it

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Ah bollocks. He was 5/2 on Sunday night

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The odds PP are offering for the election are scandalous. Taking no risk whatsoever

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Is there any chance of Howlin’s vote collapsing in Wexford as part of the overall Labour slide? Howlin and his Labour colleague in Wexford town, ex mayor Councillor George Lawlor, are at any positive announcements in relation to jobs, infrastructure, community facilities etc. Lawlor has consistently been all over local press and radio in the last year backing Howlin. He should be safe but it depends if the traditional Labour vote in his Wexford town stronghold moves to some of the Independents (Wallace and/or Carthy), Sinn Féin or a resurgent Fianna Fáil. @Mac, is Malcolm Byrne much more active in Gorey than D’Arcy?

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They are in essence novelty bets. Why would they take the risk? How much is likely to be staked on the election? relatively small in the grant scheme of things I would assume hence the shit odds

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Agreed. As a consequence I wouldn’t be taking any read from the bookies.

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Well if they offered decent odds they might take some money on it. They haven’t priced up all the markets for the craic so I’d assume they are making a few quid in on it.

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Not a chance Bando. His uncle was a Councillor and that appears to be all that’s relevant to Wexford people. (Apart from Wallace).

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You couldn’t compare Darcy and Byrne in activity levels. Even before Malcolm secured his place on the polling card he was more active. Darcy has slipped off the radar a bit and didn’t really do anything of note during his time as a TD. The Darcy family divide opinion in a big way in Gorey and I could see it working against him rather than in his favour.

North Wexford is crying out a strong voice to represent them and Byrne is perceived as being a much more suitable person to do this than Darcy. How the FF vote is split across the county will define Byrnes success or failure. He could lose out to the other Byrne. The earlier she is eliminated the better for him. But both could end up hindering the other and the longer both stay in the race the better the chance someone else could slip through.

I wouldn’t perceive Howlin as being in much danger locally despite the fact he’s a bit of a cunt. I also don’t think Wallace will have the same landslide he had the last time. I would expect Howlin, Kehoe & Wallace to be elected as the first 3 but not in the order expected. Some of the nutjobs will be gone early - Paul O’Hanlon (mr anti-immigration), Leonard Kelly (SD), John Dwyer (didn’t poll well when part of Sinn Fein so will hardly happen now), Emmet Maloney (IND), David Lloyd, Ann Walsh and Caroline Foxe.

I’d expect Deirdre Wadding to poll well based on the crustie vote and the fact she’s well known for posting her meter back to Irish Water, Ger Carthy on the back of a strong Wexford town vote and his family - but neither really challenging for a seat.

James Browne will probably get the 4th seat and then it’ll come down to transfers for Byrne (x2), Mythen and Darcy. If Malcolm Byrne is still in the mix and Paul Kehoe is elected early then Darcy could be in trouble.

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@Sidney how do you think fotf Sean Forkin will fare in Mayo? Would you be tipping him to break the 10 vote barrier?

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:grinning:

Seán Forkin – The first-time independent in Mayo, a farmer by profession, was among the many overswept by the Fine Gael wave in his constituency. He won the top preference of 29 voters.

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I’d lay Mulherin at 1/6 to be honest in Mayo. I think any right thinking Mayo person who watched that fiasco last night will have been appalled by the freak show and Mulherin was as bad as any of the loopers on it. Chambers was a model of calm by comparison. She is also the coming candidate. Mulherin has gone as far as she can go in politics, but Chambers is junior minister material. I think as much of Endas Castlebar surplus will transfer to Chambers as to Mulherin and there was another independent running out of Castlebar the last time, Kilcoyne, who picked up 3,500 votes and he is not running this time either. A lot of these votes will go to Chambers. Neither Enda nor Ring have the generosity of spirit to run a vote management strategy and I think they will leak transfers.