Eurovision 2022 - Torino - Quattordici Maggio

Culture
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So besides these two I also posted a few weeks ago my first fancy to win it being Poland. They are about 25.0 now and again its a good price and if the draw falls right he’ll be right in the mix. Poland have a large and widespread diaspora across Europe to vote for them but generally their songs are shit every year so they never get enough jury and public votes to make a dent on the board, but for once this is a really good song for them. It also helps that they are leading the charge in Europe on the humanitarian front and if goodwill and publicity builds even more for them on that front in the next two months then this will do their harm no chances. It goes to show what a weak year it is when the UK are currently fourth favourites at around 18.0 with some lad famous as a singer from tiktok. UK made a new record last year as the first country ever to register zero points on the board for any countries jury vote or indeed public vote and generally they’re good to come last every year.

I believe Monday is the final day to register your song and almost everybody has done so by now - two notable ones still to do so are Azerbaijan and Malta. Azerbaijan actually really punch above their weight hugely in this competition and you have to be wary that they come up with something good any given year. They are 100.0 odd now prior to their Monday reveal. Malta had a national final but surprisingly in past few days said that the song that won their national final will be replaced, but the girl who won remains. They are again around 100.0 odd prior to reveal and generally take this thing seriously - last year they were favourites going into the final for example but finished 6th I think.

Just a few words about the two favourites, Ukraine 2.70 and Italy 4.50. There are big question marks over both IMO. Ukraine firstly - any other year this song wouldn’t be in the mix to win IMO but of course the war situation is rightly going to curry Ukraine plenty of votes around Europe. What the market probably hasn’t factored into their price is the voting is 50/50 jury and public vote mix. They’ll sweep the public vote across Europe (and did so last year with no war) but the juries (music experts) are going to mark this down. It remains to be seen if their jury points shortfall will cost them. Another thing against them is the members of the band representing them are all male and are known to have signed up for the army effort. If the war isn’t over by May will they even be in a position to travel to Italy to take part? We also don’t know their running order draw - it’s 50/50 that you pick out of the hat a first half or second half draw. Obviously you want to be in the second half somewhere between 20-24 but even if picking first half the producers have their choice where to place them and fancied runners who draw first half tend to get something around 11-12 which isn’t a disaster but not as good as 20-24. Lastly, the band initially came second narrowly in Ukraine national final and kicked up a stink about a rigged competition and there was some bit of dirt leaked out about the winner performing a song in Crimea in recent years which is against the law there and she had to be kicked out. At the moment all of that skullduggery they pulled has been lost in the muddle of the war so it doesn’t seem like it will become a factor for the average Joe soap voting at home, but maybe the jury judges will mark them down for it.

Italy are reigning champions but the biggest doubt I have for them is when you are reigning champions you are the only country who draws your slot the following year at random from 1-24. Every other country can get preferential treatment from producers if they are amongst the fancied runners. But Italy could draw 1-6 here which would be disastrous. I don’t think anyone has won from those berths, at least not in the modern era with 24 finalists. Then again they could draw somewhere second half and then they are bang in contention but their draw will make or break them. That is on Monday again I believe. Even with a good draw though I only see this as a 3rd-5th place finisher, unless they somehow fluke somewhere 22-24 in the running order. On first listen I’m not sure the Italian song will land a blow with those at home unless they’ve a super draw.

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Ukraine will win it if they put someone in

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You just destroyed a 2000 word post in 9 words :sweat_smile:

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@Smark

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So we’re only five days out now from the Eurovision final on Saturday night and I thought I’d give the lay of the land as I see it as we enter the final week of preparations and indeed qualifiers. The current outright odds as I type here on Monday morning on Betfair are:

Ukraine 1.67
UK 8.6
Italy 10
Sweden 12
Spain 32

Ukraine have only hardened and hardened in the odds since the war keeps rumbling on and the expectation is a wave of sympathy will carry them to glory. This is easier said than done as for one thing voting is 50/50 split between public vote and jury vote (music industry experts for each country). And while they could carry the public vote by a historically wide margin, no country has won the competition in this era if you are outside the top four on either side of the scoreboard, and on all known form if the juries do their jobs by the book then Ukraine shouldn’t be getting within an asses roar of the top 5 at least. This jury shortfall is what I expect to scupper Ukraine.

Furthermore the organisers have been steadfast over the years not to politicize the competition, so the current voting system was brought in to prevent such a thing of a country winning due to sympathy due to current events and also to prevent the bloc voting which became endemic. Jurors will be warned to do their jobs properly and assess things on the songs, it remains to be seen how many will follow the rules. The organisers won’t want Ukraine winning as it sullies the competition and so there are dark arts where they can try to trip them up. The main way is the running order draw. The only control a country has over where they end up is each country draws from a hat ‘first half’ or ‘second half’. If Ukraine draw first half I could see them opening the show, which as good as ruins their chances. There will be 25 countries competing in the final and basically if you can at all you want to be somewhere from 20-25. Basically anyone drawn 1-6 may as well forget about it, the stats are enormously against you. The only saving grace for Ukraine backers at this point regarding the running order is the ‘big five’ countries qualify automatically each year and they have already drawn their draws early as is the norm, and only one of the five got a second half draw, that being the UK. Each of Italy, Spain, France and Germany pulled first half out of the bag so that leaves a lot more second half balls for Ukraine to pick. But even if they get second half, the hope for the rest is the organisers put them on early in second half like somewhere around 13-14. Really though a first draw would be great and would bury them.

Of the others Italy have drifted from a few months ago being favorites as low as maybe 3.5 at one point to now 10 as their rehearsals allegedly haven’t been good, with one of the duet not turning up the first day and the second day the two boys were meant to be dying of hangovers and were rehearsing at 9am. The two lads are massive stars in Italy and I wouldn’t have any qualms about them pulling it all together on the night. As reigning champions that country is the only one that pulls the exact number of their draw from the hat, and they got 9 which I don’t think is ideal but others I listen to don’t mind it. The song has something like 72 millions spotify streams which is a good bit more than the rest of the songs combined. One part of the duet, Mahmoud, represented Italy in 2019 and was runner up so he will have a fan base among regular watchers. At the price i’d recommend a bet at 10.

I mentioned before i recommended a bet on Sweden and they have drifted out a bit too to 12 as she’s been seen to be saving herself in rehearsals and it’s been a bit error strewn. We don’t even know her running order draw so I don’t think the drift is merited, considering she’s more likely to draw second half than first. Sweden are trying to tie with Ireland for most wins so they should be looked on favourably by organisers, and the main producer is a Swede himself. They would certainly rather a winner like Sweden than the awkwardness of figuring out where to go next year if Kyiv is still under siege.

There’s one more that’s being totally overlooked and who I think could build a lot of momentum after the semi finals and who with a second half draw could be very nicely helped with a late running order is the Netherlands. You can back them at 80/1 each way 1-4 places with each of William Hill, Betvictor, Unibet and Quinnbet. I think they are a lovely each way bet for anyone who wants to back something at a bigger price for a bit of fun. They are being overlooked and I’ve now got my biggest position on the Netherlands of those I’ve backed. Anyone betting with the high street bookies make sure it’s someone with 4 places, paddy power for example only offer 3 places.

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Am I right in saying the points for finishing first, second, third etc in the public vote are fixed? So you don’t get more points the further you win the public vote by?

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I don’t really follow your logic or not sure where you heard that but I don’t believe that to be the case.

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I looked it up, I see the public vote still involves each country awarding 12, 10, 8 down the line and they just add them all up when announcing. I thought they may have moved to awarding points for the Europe-wide number of public votes.

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When it comes to the public vote yeah they’ll do that after all the juries are ran through. And say Germany are bottom of table on 2pts after jury element, they’ll start with calling out the public vote for Germany as worst ranked from jury side and so on. They’ll just say “Germany got 7pts in total from public” for example and not actually go ringing around all the countries again. If they go to Ireland and Lottie Ryan for points she’ll be calling out the jury element only. I expect Ukraine to be trailing a fair bit after the jury vote.

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The Rock ‘N’ Roll Kids performed third and won by a record margin.

Under the current Eurovision format, the winning points totals are as follows:
2021 - Italy 524 points (second place got 499) - 39 participants
2019 - Netherlands 498 points (second place 472) - 41 participants
2018 - Israel 524 points (second place 436) - 43 participants
2017 - Portugal 758 points (second place 615) - 42 participants
2016 - Ukraine 534 points (second place 511) - 42 participants

There are 40 countries participating this year.

Bar the notable outlier of 2017 when two songs streaked ahead of the rest of the field and Portugal won with a massive total of 758, getting over 500 points gives a song a very good shout of victory.

I reckon Ukraine will get douze points with the public from about 30 of the 39 other countries (360 points) and get a high vote with the rest of them (maybe an average of six points from the other nine, which is 54 points). That’s 414.

They’d have to tank pretty badly with the juries not to be there or thereabouts and I think the juries will look favourably on them. I would be surprised if they come in under 150 points on the jury voting.

My recollection is that jury voting is announced first and the public vote announced second so there could be a good betting opportunity there if Ukraine are a bit down the field on the jury voting before the public vote rockets them ahead.

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In a different era of voting where it wasn’t 50/50 split between public vote and jury vote.

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You’re correct on all that, jury goes first and Ukraine will be lagging in some way shape or form. What kind of drift happens who knows but if anyone wanted to back them it would be then and not now. No-one has hit 400 pts on public vote it’d be a very tall order. On jury side they’d do well enough to have 150-175 at that stage. I think you’re overestimating their public vote potential too. A lot of people will sit on their hands and assume someone else is picking up to vote for Ukraine. And if they get buried early in the show I’d confidently say they’re goosed straight away. However odds are that they will draw second half so things can only get as bad as maybe 13-14 in the running order.

Participants will be 25 by the way not 40+. You’re counting semi finalists there and half of them get whittled away before Saturday night. For voting purposes they remain of course regardless of making final or not.

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Great stuff.

Any novelty act this year?

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Norway are the novelty act but they are real try hards it’s not one to get on board.

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With 40 voting countries, 468 is the maximum a song can get from the public vote (39 x 12).

I think this year is different and 400 from the public vote is very achievable.

Based on 20 seconds of flicking through them I’m not impressed with the Italian or UK entries which are the closest to Ukraine in the betting. My hunch is its a low quality field this year.

Personally I think Ukraine could send Dustin the Turkey and win this year.

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Not if they are drawn in the first five or six slots trust me on that. Anyway its academic until the the running order draw. The organisers will try to trip them up somewhere. Even if they get second half they could put two powerhouses either side of them or something and they get lost. The organisers preferred winners will have rabble around them to stand out.

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Portugal got 758 points in 2017 and they were 11th of 26 finalists in the running order.

To me 11th out of 26 is about as bad as you can get in the running order - I’d say a lot of people tune in to catch the opening of the contest and then drift out before coming back to it in the latter stages.

I think you’re overthinking this.

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Says the fella who ruled out second favs Italy and UK based on the 20 seconds you saw of them, in your own words. All the best mate I’ve done my best to educate you on it.

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But that’s often how people vote. Many or probably most people don’t sit through the entire contest and make up their minds based on those 15 second long snippets after everybody has performed.

As regards Italy, I think it’s very hard for a country to retain the title unless you have a proper standout song which towers above the rest as we did in 1993 and 1994.

As regards the UK, they’ve consistently done terribly for the last 20-25 years and there has to be a clear political element at play there, despite them entering some admittedly terrible songs in that time. Even Gina G who should have been a stone cold winner all the way back in 1996 flopped in the voting. They are highly unpopular in Europe. Politics matters.

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Have Ireland a decent chance if making the final?