Fenwaypark's National Hunt Betting 2013/2014

Sport
401

KC, I suggest you take some of the 20s from William Hill. You backing Grade La Victoire tomorrow. 2s looks more than fair.

402

[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 873143, member: 276”]Bet 64
King George AP
5pts win Captain Chris 20-1
William Hill

P&L -55pts (27pts IP)[/quote]
post reported you are already on mnt benbulben

403

Never put MB up on this thread. Put Al Ferof up at 14s (2pts win). You can back more than one horse in a race;)

I still really like MB, but value is gone. I would have Al Ferof, Dynaste, Mount Benbulben and Captain Chris as the four horses to focus on. I suspect Al Ferof (much like Cue Card) may be more effective on a track like Cheltenham and going lefthanded.

404

back track noted

405

destroyer deployed is interesting to me…

406

[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 873140, member: 276”]Bet 63
3.45 Cheltenham
5pts win Garde La Victoire 2-1 BOG
Stan James

P&L -50 pts (22pts IP)[/quote]
like him, but he’s very young…short price…

407

very open races. was going to put up lyvius. will love the better ground and ran well lto at ascot. His hurdling sucks though. Notable that BJG picks him over Fourth Estate.

408

I know I put him up last month, but sunnyhillboy has a ridiculous hurdle mark

409

Cappa bleu runs in a 3m novice hurdle sat at the ripe old age of 11

410

[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 873136, member: 276”]Bet 62
2.10 Cheltenham
5 pts win Prince Of Pirates 7-1 BOG
William Hill

P&L -45pts (17pts IP)[/quote]
Loser

411

[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 873140, member: 276”]Bet 63
3.45 Cheltenham
5pts win Garde La Victoire 2-1 BOG
Stan James

P&L -50 pts (22pts IP)[/quote]
Loser

412

Bet 64
5pts Double
3.00 Zarkandar 5-2 BOG
3.35 More Of That 10-3 BOG
Bet 365

P&L -55pts (17pts IP)

413

Bet 65
1.50 Cheltenham
5pts win Flicka Williams 16-1 BOG
Bet365

P&L -60pts (22pts IP)

414

Bet 66
1.35 Doncaster
5pts win Ted Spread 12-1 BOG
VC

P&L -65pts (27pts IP)

415

Bet 67
1.15 Cheltenham
5pts win French Opera 14-1 BOG
VC

P&L -70pts (32pts IP)

416

[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 873640, member: 276”]Bet 64
5pts Double
3.00 Zarkandar 5-2 BOG
3.35 More Of That 10-3 BOG
Bet 365

P&L -55pts (17pts IP)[/quote]
Loser

417

[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 873641, member: 276”]Bet 65
1.50 Cheltenham
5pts win Flicka Williams 16-1 BOG
Bet365

P&L -60pts (22pts IP)[/quote]
Loser

418

[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 873659, member: 276”]Bet 66
1.35 Doncaster
5pts win Ted Spread 12-1 BOG
VC

P&L -65pts (27pts IP)[/quote]
Loser

419

[quote=“fenwaypark, post: 873810, member: 276”]Bet 67
1.15 Cheltenham
5pts win French Opera 14-1 BOG
VC

P&L -70pts (32pts IP)[/quote]
Loser

420

P&L -70pts (12pts IP)****
Time to call a spade a spade, and this has been an unmitigated disaster so far. Only for Harry Topper, there would be a sizable three figure loss.

Time to knock this approach on it’s head. Hopefully some of the ante post bets can reduce the deficit.

From this point forward the approach will consist of:

  1. Only betting on graded races. This will reduce amount of races and hopefully with some proper research will ripe some dividends. If you don’t narrow your sample size, you are prone to looking at too many races. This leads itself to forming an opinion (without the necessary research) and wanting to back that opinion up with bets.

  2. No antepost betting. There is no real edge to be had in this as in many cases, the SPs are returning a price which does not justify the risk.

  3. All bets will be win only on a 1pt win basis. At the end of the day if you fancy a horse, you should bet to level stakes regardless of price. Just my opinion.

As before, I will not be actually punting myself.