[FONT=Calibri]Would you chaps bet much on early championship rounds involving teams you haven’t seen play this year? For example, I was surprised to see the Louth’s 4/7 victory odds last weekend and 2 or 3 people here were backing them, and on the handicap too. It’s guesswork surely and any bet on Wicklow-Meath would fall into that category also. I guess it’s grand for an interest or whatever but it’s fairly blind punting.[/FONT]
That wasn’t Louths first outing though
I know. It was televised though and I doubt many neutrals went to it.
but sure anything that involves humans and the bounce of a ball is guesswork …it all needs an element of luck…outside of that form has a lot to do with betting and louth appeared to be in top form after hammering laois…louth at home…wexford hadn’t played a game…but you can never really fully factor in the part the weather played, players sent off/going off injured, shots coming back off the post for goals etc…and in the end one kick of ball was difference…
[FONT=Calibri]Yes, but surely you should limit guesswork by having seen the teams play yourself. Unless, as mentioned, it’s just for interest and you’re not shelling out significant amounts. I rarely bet but would pick the odd one based on something I noticed in watching a team. The 4/7 and 5/2 odds last weekend were absolutely off the wall. [/FONT]
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[FONT=Calibri]Form for Division 2 teams was absolutely mental all through the league with teams taking hammerings one week and dishing them out the next – it was a division with hardly any degree of consistency so I didn’t put much store on Louth’s first round win being seen as an advantage and a portent of them continuing on an upward curve. [/FONT]
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[FONT=Calibri]Wexford have now been to the provincial semi-finals in 8 of the last 10 years, which gives them the first round bye the following year, so they don’t have a recent history of being limited by not playing the earlier round either. [/FONT]
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[FONT=Calibri]Notwithstanding the generally fluctuating displays by most teams in Division 2, Wexford had comfortably defeated Louth in the direct meeting between the teams in Drogheda and seemed the hold the advantage in terms of match ups.[/FONT]
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[FONT=Calibri]For example, Daithí Waters utterly dominated their best player Paddy Keenan in March and did so again last Sunday. I agree with your point on injuries though - Louth started to peg us back late on when Waters got his head injury.[/FONT]
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[FONT=Calibri]Having been to most of Wexford’s league games and 2 of Louth’s, it seemed to me to be the kind of game where if the teams played 10 times then Wexford would win on 6 or 7 occasions. [/FONT]
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[FONT=Calibri]I therefore expected Wexford to win, as discussed last week on the Wexford GAA thread. But it’s the overall odds and how Louth were such firm favourites that was completely nuts.[/FONT]
[quote=“Bandage, post: 786133, member: 9”][FONT=Calibri]Yes, but surely you should limit guesswork by having seen the teams play yourself. Unless, as mentioned, it’s just for interest and you’re not shelling out significant amounts. I rarely bet but would pick the odd one based on something I noticed in watching a team. The 4/7 and 5/2 odds last weekend were absolutely off the wall. [/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT][FONT=Calibri].[/FONT][/quote]
wexford actually went to 11/4 just before the match so a lot of people must have steamed into Louth even at 4/7…
The Galway Laois handicap looks worth exploring. Galway have played in 3 Leinster championships. First round record is:
2010 - beat Wexford by 11 points
2011 - beat Westmeath by 9 points
2012 - beat Westmeath by 10 points
From the limited amount I know about Laois hurling I would assume they’re better than those Westmeath teams were. There’s a bit of a buzz in Laois after decent results in minor and U21. The last time they got to play 3 Senior Leinster Championship games was 2004.
Galway will win but to win by more than 14 points is asking a lot in their first championship game. I think there’s value in Laois +14 at 10/11.
All opinions appreciated
[quote=“Mac, post: 786144, member: 109”]The Galway Laois handicap looks worth exploring. Galway have played in 3 Leinster championships. First round record is:
2010 - beat Wexford by 11 points
2011 - beat Westmeath by 9 points
2012 - beat Westmeath by 10 points
From the limited amount I know about Laois hurling I would assume they’re better than those Westmeath teams were. There’s a bit of a buzz in Laois after decent results in minor and U21. The last time they got to play 3 Senior Leinster Championship games was 2004.
Galway will win but to win by more than 14 points is asking a lot in their first championship game. I think there’s value in Laois +14 at 10/11.
All opinions appreciated[/quote]
In the same period Mac, Laois played 4 games against “decent” opponents, Dublin x 2, Limerick and Cork. The combined margin of defeat over the 4 games was exactly 100 points. Once they got inside a 14 point spread against Dublin in 2010. They have a tendency to ship ferocious beatings against better teams and I think Galway now are a lot better than the three teams referred to above.
I should also add Mac, that Westmeath typically don’t get rolled over in Mullingar and the likes of Kilkenny have had plenty of it there in recent times.
Never bet on the Laois psyche 
[quote=“Fagan ODowd, post: 786154, member: 706”]In the same period Mac, Laois played 4 games against “decent” opponents, Dublin x 2, Limerick and Cork. The combined margin of defeat over the 4 games was exactly 100 points. Once they got inside a 14 point spread against Dublin in 2010. They have a tendency to ship ferocious beatings against better teams and I think Galway now are a lot better than the three teams referred to above.
I should also add Mac, that Westmeath typically don’t get rolled over in Mullingar and the likes of Kilkenny have had plenty of it there in recent times.[/quote]
All fair points
Are Fermanagh worth a punt against Cavan? 6/5 to win.
Fermanagh at home, Canavan will have them organised and Socks Dunne won’t be kicking points for fun like he did against Armagh. Didn’t think Cavan were that impressive the last day.
So what you’re saying here is that Wexford’s price shortened because people were backing Louth?
[quote=“dodgy-keeper, post: 786162, member: 1552”]Are Fermanagh worth a punt against Cavan? 6/5 to win.
[/quote]
There must be better than that around. I backed them at 13/8 last week.
So what you’re saying here is that Wexford’s price shortened because people were backing Louth?[/quote]
what are you on about you dumb cunt??..5/2 to 11/4 isn´t shortening…
Ah yes. I see what’s happened here. 
you´ve too much of a hard on for me pal…take a cold shower and then come back to the keyboard …alternatively you can put your piece in a bucket of ice and stay online…but you need to cool down…you´re jumping in every time trying to catch me out and just being exposed for the gimp you are…
[quote=“Bandage, post: 786133, member: 9”][FONT=Calibri]Yes, but surely you should limit guesswork by having seen the teams play yourself. Unless, as mentioned, it’s just for interest and you’re not shelling out significant amounts. I rarely bet but would pick the odd one based on something I noticed in watching a team. The 4/7 and 5/2 odds last weekend were absolutely off the wall. [/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri]Form for Division 2 teams was absolutely mental all through the league with teams taking hammerings one week and dishing them out the next – it was a division with hardly any degree of consistency so I didn’t put much store on Louth’s first round win being seen as an advantage and a portent of them continuing on an upward curve. [/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri]Wexford have now been to the provincial semi-finals in 8 of the last 10 years, which gives them the first round bye the following year, so they don’t have a recent history of being limited by not playing the earlier round either. [/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri]Notwithstanding the generally fluctuating displays by most teams in Division 2, Wexford had comfortably defeated Louth in the direct meeting between the teams in Drogheda and seemed the hold the advantage in terms of match ups.[/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri]For example, Daithí Waters utterly dominated their best player Paddy Keenan in March and did so again last Sunday. I agree with your point on injuries though - Louth started to peg us back late on when Waters got his head injury.[/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri]Having been to most of Wexford’s league games and 2 of Louth’s, it seemed to me to be the kind of game where if the teams played 10 times then Wexford would win on 6 or 7 occasions. [/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri] [/FONT]
[FONT=Calibri]I therefore expected Wexford to win, as discussed last week on the Wexford GAA thread. But it’s the overall odds and how Louth were such firm favourites that was completely nuts.[/FONT][/quote]
We’re gamblers not accountants Bandage.
No I think you’re thundering fool. I got this one wrong but it doesn’t negate your general idiocy.
no…you´re trying to convince yourself I´m a thundering fool and everytime you fall flat on your face…why? because you don´t have the intelligence to pull it off…now like i advised you… go to the bathroom and pull the other thing off you horrible angry waste of skin…
Your simplicity seems to upset you more than me.