What you need to be top scorer more than anything is games.
Top 4 in 2012 played 5 games, top scorer played 6 [Shefflin]
4 out of the top 5 in 2011 played 5 games including the top scorer [Ryan]
The one who didn’t was Patrick Horgan who got 3-11 in one game in that 10-20 pummelling of Laois.
Top 4 in 2010 played at least 5 games. Winner [Eoin Kelly] played 6.
Shefflin is injured. Can’t see it being a Kilkenny player. Shefflin will most likely take over frees when he is back. Assuming he is. Either way too much doubt.
Eoin Kelly and Seamus Callinan are the Tipp options. Options being the key world. 3/4 games through the front door is their most likely path.
Canning goes straight into Leinster semi. So has a smaller chance of getting 5 games.
He’d need to lose Leinster Final and get to the final.
Paul Ryan is the favourite with Powers. I’m not sure why.
The most likely path for Dublin is for them to beat Wexford and lose to Kilkenny.
That will leave them in a qualifier with a Munster semi-finalist. They could easily bow out at that stage after 3 games.
Shane Dooley always scores ridiculously well. But I don’t see him getting enough games to have a chance.
A good market to guide this is the “Reach the semi final” market.
I think the top scorer could be playing on Sunday given the paths they can take.
Clare for example are 5/4 to make the semi final. Might be a bit short but they could easily see 5+ games depending on their route.
Lose Sunday and they are in with the early losers Leinster draw. [London, Westmeath, Antrim etc…]
Lose the Munster semi and they have a 50/50 shot at drawing Laois/Carlow in the qualifiers. Colin Ryan was top scorer in Division 1A scoring 0-58 in 6 games. At 9/1 with Powers he is worth a look.
Powers only gave me €48 on it.
Oh well…
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Canning goes straight into a Leinster semi final against Laois or Carlow. If he’s interested on the day or played close to goal he could score 20 points.
I don’t think Clare will score enough as a team for one of their players to be top scorer. Galway, Tipp and Kilkenny score at an entirely different rate to other teams n
Canning must surely be the favourite here. Galway, kk, and tipp to make the semis. Shefflin will miss one or more kk games while for tipp neither Kelly nor Callanan will play all of every game or be on the frees 100% of the time. Canning is also more likely to score additional goals than the other contenders and likely Galway will lose Leinster final so he’ll get an equal number of games.
Good value in the Colin Ryan bet. An outside bet is dowling for limerick. If he starts full forward and on the frees his ability to score goals from 21s could make him a contender.
I’m not attempting to sway anyones thinking here but in fairness to him CLD is an anorak for this type of stuff. Look at his prediction of Shefflington for hurler of the year last year in August and Fennelly the year before that in May as 2 examples.
Have never come across someone who puts so much analysis into what would be perceived as after thought bets. If only he’d go back spreadbetting in time for the NFL season
16s with Powers. Not convinced by Cork. Not sure they’ll get the games to become a factor in this market.
Same with Limerick. Playing the first round in Munster is a big plus in this market.
[quote=“Mac, post: 778306, member: 109”]Colin Ryan is now 13/2. Fuck you CLD
A €500 liability changes the market, jokeshop![/quote]
Brilliant.
Total anorak. The anorak’s anorak. Had been looking at this market a while but only really properly looked at the draw layout this morning. A lot of it is down to luck of the draw too. Like Clare could lose Sunday and then get a bye in the first qualifier. One of the 7 losers gets a bye.
[quote=“Mac, post: 778321, member: 109”]
Have never come across someone who puts so much analysis into what would be perceived as after thought bets. If only he’d go back spreadbetting in time for the NFL season ;)[/quote]
Christ that was dodgy.
While there is a decent amount I know about NFL, there is far too much that I don’t know. Quietly retired from that venture. Spread betting is built to put lads in an early grave. From up 5 points to down 10 in seconds. I only go on sportingindex now when Ronda Rousey is fighting. Sell, sell, sell. And I think they have me clamped on that one now.
Can someone sketch out a likely path through the qualifiers for the losing team on Sunday? Could they get a runof games against the likes of London, Carlow and Wexford?
There will be 7 teams in this pot.
1 will get a bye to the 2nd round.
The other 6 will play each other.
So for example, say the teams are[in a perfect situation for me]:
Clare, Carlow, Westmeath, London, Antrim, Offaly and Wexford.
1 of the teams gets a bye. Say Offaly.
Then first round
Clare v London
Carlow v Westmeath
Wexford v Antrim
Then in the next round you’d have
Clare v Carlow
Wexford v Offaly
The winners here would play the winners of Phase 2 which has the Leinster semi losers playing the Munster Semi losers.
[quote=“Mac, post: 778321, member: 109”]I’m not attempting to sway anyones thinking here but in fairness to him CLD is an anorak for this type of stuff. Look at his prediction of Shefflington for hurler of the year last year in August and Fennelly the year before that in May as 2 examples.
Have never come across someone who puts so much analysis into what would be perceived as after thought bets. If only he’d go back spreadbetting in time for the NFL season ;)[/quote]is there any history of cld rigorously researching bets and getting it wrong?
