I have about 13 or 14 teams that I fancy fairly strong to win their respective County Championships (most of them mentioned above)
While some people consider multiples to be mug lottery tickets, they can also be weapons of mass destruction. Now the easy thing is to just stick them in a straightforward accumulator and hope for the best - this would pay around 1.2m to 1 but realistically if 9 or 10 of them won I’d be fairly happy.
From a maths point of view what’s the best multiple approach to play here. - Do about 500 6 or 7 folds to combine all the various permutations?
And the more that win then the better?
How much of a pot do you have?
The more you include in the acca, the less accas you do and can go a bit stronger.
10 x 9 times acca gives some cover for that loser that always crops up.
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I’d probably do two Goliath’s, 8 selections, 247 bets. One bigger stake with your most confident 8 teams and a smaller one with 8 biggest priced teams. If average team odds are evens or less for shorter priced one you likely need to hit 6/8 to make profit
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I just think if I’m smart here and play the maths right I could be able to make a decent profit. I’ve done them all in singles already but would be nice to win some real money.
I’ve come close to some big payouts on Ante Post Club GAA in recent years but always ended up with absolutely nothing thanks to one or two teams coming acropper.
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Waste of time doing a Goliath at those odds and the cost of the stake.
Not exactly no? €0.20 Goliath costs roughly €50 and if he includes his eight biggest priced fancies he still makes lovely profit if five win. Maybe not the way to play the short priced ones I’d agree
Interesting he tipped Mullagh at 9/2
Clonlara surely win this ?
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They should win but it’s not guaranteed at all. 4/9 is about right, if not too short. Clooney are a very decent side and have been very unlucky to lose both their games, lost to Eire Og (who beat Clonlara) by a point, and lost to Ballyea by 2. Clooney also still have a chance of qualifying so will be going all out.
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There won’t be any heroics like last week but here are my selections for this week.
Mullinavat evens to beat Clara
Both teams have reached their first aim by staying out of the bottom two. Both defeated depleted Ballyhale shamrocks in the previous two rounds and previously defeated Comer. Vat lead Clara on the table due to a draw with Ballycallan. They have a habit of making things difficult for themselves with a deluge of wides but I think they are better than Clara from what I’ve seen.
Bennettsbridge 8/13 to beat Tullaroan
If the Bridge can slow down Mossy Keoghan & Shane Walsh they are a far more even outfit around the park and will win.
Clarenbridge 8/11 to beat Loughrea
This was previously in from 5/4. Loughrea struggled over Moycullen the last day which is unsurprising given they have a load of injuries including McManus and Jamie ryan. Clarenbridge have lost Aaron Niland but judging by maroon and white podcast they seem to have a stronger edge this year. They’ll want to be seeing off an under strength Loughrea
Newtownshandrum 4/7 to beat Douglas
Both teams have beaten Bishopstown and lost to Sars. It’s the manner of these results that stand out as Newtown hammered Btown and were competitive v Sars whilst Douglas weren’t as convincing v Town and were clipped by Sars. They always strike me as slighlty overrated due to plenty of county representatives. Newtown are a solid outfit.
I have the above in a 1.5 point accum.
1 point treble w/o Newtown.
2 point double on Vat & Bridge.
I also have the above with a 0.5 pt accum with Mullagh in Galway. They play Cappataggle who are struggling, are down bodies and have never beaten their neighbours in senior hurling. They were 9/2 but I took the 10/3 in a game that should be tight.
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Any Cork source in here think Inniscarra are a bet at evens today to beat Killeagh. Beat Ballyhea the first night and even though they were well bet by the Glen the last day seems like they were gearing up for this game with Sean O Donoghue to come back. Killeagh bet by the Glen in first game and lost to Ballyhea only scoring 4-9 (Ballyhea best player Pa O Callaghan went off injured in 1st half and were missing suspended centre back Tom Hanley).
No dice for the accum.
Bridge beaten well by Tullaroan, Mullinavat did win.
Mullagh beaten by a late Cappy fight back in Galway.
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Two very average teams …toss of a coin I’d say
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Few bits done for the weekend.
3 point accum PP
Ballyhale, Dicksboro & Borrisileigh at 21/10
My sources on the ground in KK say Ballyhale will have almost a full side out for their first round v the Village. TJ alone in any kind of form should be enough to see past a young Village side. 2/5 in pp is value in my book.
Dicksboro got their campaign back on track with a win over Thomastown last week. They have a much higher ceiling than ballycallan who’s manager walked out on them.
Borris are 1/4 to beat Lorrha but should be lower in my book. Yes, Lorrha did win the last day out and do have some excellent players but Borris are a top 4-8 side barring a poor draw and some poor game management in the group stages.
My weekend outsider bet looks like this currently.
Borrisokaine, Thurles Sars B, Dunamaggin & Moyne/Templetuohy.
I think Moyne will beat Newport with a bit to spare.
The other 3 teams are priced 15/8 (should be 5/4), 6/4 (should be 10/11) and 15/8 (should be 5/6).
I have a 0.5 point accum and 4x0.5 point trebles. If one comes up we will be in profit.
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Is there some value in the 5/2 about Templederry beating Roscrea in your opinion
Its not really my thing anymore to put my money on ‘non-elite’ Club GAA Teams but there are a lot of ‘weak favourites’ in Tipp this weekend across the Premier Intermediate and Intermediate Championships.
Bar Moneygall and Golden who should win, the rest of the favourites could all be turned over.
I’m surprised Thurles B are outsiders against Cashel who haven’t fired at all really in this championship.
They should probably be nearer to 6/4 or 13/8.
Roscrea apparently hammered Templederry in a challenge a few weeks back but it wouldn’t really have any implications on this game.
It all depends whether Templederry have all their injuries back and if they can make it relatively tight at the back. If they can then 5/2 is worth a touch.
As @peddlerscross pointed out there’s not many dependable favourites in Tipp this weekend. Moneygall, Borris, Kiladangan, Loughmore the pick of the favourites.
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Fair. I’ve also used Silvermines in a few bets, Treacys are dirt and a couple have gone to Dubai since their last game. I think Brackens with everyone back will give Toome a right game of it but would want 2s to back it
Loughmore -2 and Ballyhale -4 is floating around aswell think both lines might push out a point at least in each case. Are Ballyhale expected to have all of Mullen, Cody, TJ, Fennelly and the Corcorans back do you know? Considering there was twenty points between them last year the handicap becomes tempting if so.
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