General Election 2011

FF only running 76 candidates in the elections :blink: will probably turn out to be a smart strategy as there’ll be no split votes. Wouldn’t surprise me if they defy all belief and get the majority of those 76 people in.

Poor Conor is getting the piss ripped out of him here. Never a good sign when the rest of the panel is laughing at you.

FF could get a lot of 2nd preferences, mainly because people will be thinking they are making a protest by giving the No1 to FG, but then giving the No2 to the FF man because of “all the good work he did around the place” in the past few years.

I would expect the anti FF sentiment to soften over the course of the campaign and I would stick to my prediction that will win a minimum of 35 seats. They may well get ad many as 45 and in some constituencies they will end up regretting that they ran too few candidates.

41 - 45 seats at 8/1 and 46 - 50 seats at 12/1 are 2 bets that interest me based on

  • Irish people having very short memories
  • The diehard FF supporters won’t have as many candidates to vote for so better vote management
  • Labour and FG seem incapable of pushing on pressing home their advantage
  • Inda going missing when it matters
  • All the retiring TD’s and ministers helping out with the canvassing of the new guys in the diehard FF areas
  • The anti FF brigade won’t vote in the huge numbers we might expect
  • The opinion polls that have been published are nothing but a load of shite

That last point is the main one for me Mac, how many of these opinion polls have polled the grass roots the way the FF Cumanns will do? No one gets the vote out like FF, if the anti FF’s dont vote, or the oppostion dont get off their fucking holes and give a decent alternative, then I would echo fagan and your post, 40-50 is not out of the question here given the way this is going.

I would agree with all of that Mac. FF will be on a very good position for the next election. They will have cleared out most of the dead wood, most of their TDs will be young and energetic with no nexus to the financial collapse the blame for which will have passed to the next government anyway

There is plenty of scope for criticism for some of the opinion polls but an opinion poll of grassroots FF would hardly be very balanced.

Maybe I’m overly optimistic but I think they’ll still get hurt as much as the polls are predicting. Plenty of anger right across the demographics now so I don’t think this election is comparable to any other. There was resentment about corruption etc the last time but there was nothing like the palpable anger that’s there now.

I wasnt asking for an opinion poll of the grassroot FF support Rocko, was just suggesting that opinion polls struggle to take account the strength of this part of the demographic.

Poor auld Timmy Dooley has been getting awful stick at the door steps

Where are you seeing this Rocko? Outside of Dublin people are more interested in who’ll get them a medical card and a grant for their kids to go to college than what their national policies are. Once the street lighting is working and the potholes are regularly filled they don’t give a scheidt. FF are running John Browne and Sean Connick in Wexford - both have done sweet fuck all since they’ve been elected. Browne has been in the Dáil for nearly longer than I’ve been alive and has never had a position of note nor done anything worth talking about. However, he’ll probably still top the poll due to the loyal FF support. I’d be nearly sure you’ll have similar candidates in other regional counties as well.

I get what you are saying Mac, but there is definitely a lot more anger nationwide, than ever before, in particular amongst the younger people, but the thing is a lot of them are so disillusioned with politics in this country that they won’t even vote, whereas the older, more set in their way die hards will always vote.

And therein lies the rub Runt. Granted were the opposition appearing in any way to be a more vibrant viable alternative then there might be some chance of people getting out and voting, but sadly there just the same gombeens under a different banner.

I would completely agree with that. I don’t know where you’d find the percentages but what would the normal voter turnout be in the over 50’s compared to the 18-35 age group? Our generation seems to be so passive about everything that we’re happier to post about how pissed off we are on twitter and facebook rather than actually walking or driving 5 mins down the road to vote for a change. Compare the pensioners protests to the students protests.

While there’s more anger nationwide, I don’t see enough to convince me that FF will only end up with 20 odd seats. Regardless of what they’ve done to this country over the last 5-10 years they’re far cuter than any of the other parties and I think they will come out of this election with their head held high mainly due to the normal Irish gombeen approach to voting.

I know, only a joke.

I think it’s fair to say there is far more anger at the current government than has been there previously. FF are at a historic low. They may well recover somewhat before the election and outperform current expectations but the ground they’re in at the moment is unprecedented. The change of leadership might help but I think (and hope) they’ll be surprised by how many of their loyal voters will abandon them this time around.

Even FF themselves have gone elsewhere by announcing only 75 candidates. They don’t have a candidate for every catchment area anymore, they’re banking on the FF vote in Roscommon-South Leitrim not giving a shit whether their FF candidate is from Roscommon or Leitrim. They might get a surprise on the day.

This debate on TV3 is poor enough. Format is just brutal.

Is his East Clare vote gone?

The absolute state of the candidates put forward. Joe Carey as a potential minister I think not.

Why is Browne so popular? I can’t imagine he has been responsible for any infrastructure related projects coming to Wexford

Agh Here

Hillary is supposed to have massive support over you way KIB man

Medical cards and the like for the oul wans.

I can assure you the anti FF sentiment is quite strong among the diaspora in Sydney. That’s a lot of ABFF votes gone too.

Yeah the old lad was saying that too. People need to start copping the fuck on though. Ireland has a population half the size of London and is a small island. Votes should be on what’s best for the country not filling potholes in Miltown.