Barry Andrews having a 'mare here.
How do you measure this low?
Opinion polls and the last local elections.
I would agree on the local elections. The opinion polls are not worth the paper their written on.
Thereās a list of all candidates here - http://electionsireland.org/results/general/31stdail/candidates.cfm
Would anyone care to go thru the candidates in their constituency and offer an informed analysis of whoās likely to get in? In Wexford I would expect no change with the 5 sitting TDās to hold onto their seats. My take although not really informed!
Each town will want to have a TD so Gorey will vote in Darcy with Connick holding on in New Ross. Howlin will always get his seat for as long as he runs as the only credible Labour candidate but also is likely to hold a senior position if Labour are in Government. As stated previously, Browne should probably coast in probably without having to canvass or stick up posters. And Kehoe will hold onto his based on the overall FG vote in the rest of the county. Liam Twomey might push him close but I donāt see more than 2 FG seats in Wexford.
Dublin Mid West:
4 seats
Outgoing TDs:
John Curran (FF)
Joanna Tuffy (Labour)
Paul Gogarty (Green)
Mary Harney (PD-FF) not running
1 FG and 1 Labour guaranteed - likely Frances Fitzgerald (FG) and Joanna Tuffy (Lab).
Remaining two seats between: Derek Keating (FG), Robert Dowds (Lab), John Curran (FF) and Eoin OāBroin (SF).
Gogarty has no chance.
Think OāBroin may sneak in, has been quite impressive in his media appearances and will take votes from both Curran and the two Labour candidates. Curran will lose out, his association with Cowen wonāt help. That leaves Keating to pip Dowds for the other seat.
So:
2 FG (Frances Fitzgerald, Derek Keating)
1 Labour (Joanna Tuffy)
1 Sinn Fein (Eoin OāBroin)
Lads was Ciaran Cuffe any use in government? I voted for him with youthful enthusiasm in the last election but from my occasional viewings of political media he seems to me to be weak, a spoofer and a bit of a plonker. Is this correct?
I forgot to move my vote from Dun Laoghaire but it should be an interesting contest and Iām kinda glad Iāll have a say in it. The lack of new faces is depressing though. My guess would be Gilmore, Hanafin, Sean Barrett of FG and maybe Richard Boyd Barrett. Heāll attract the vote of Dun Laoghaireās affluent young who are informed politically by their right-on mates on Twitter and Facebook.
Wouldnāt be surprised to see Barry Andrews get in too, given the area thatās in it.
Where could I find a list of candidates for Limerick West?
As with the portly Wexican my take is totally uninformed but Iād expect the following from Clare
2 FG - Carey and Breen. No potential minister there or anyone with a vision for the country.
1 Lab - McNamara - a gain for Labour here. Another barrister for the Dail. Seems like he has a decent CV though and Iād vote for him anyway
1 FF - think Hillery will get in with Dooley to lose out. James Breen ex FF independent might get in but he is a simpleton parish pump type so Iād actually prefer if he lost out to Hillery for being a representative of national parliament.
Niall Collins FF
Dan Neville FG
Cllr William OāDonnell FG
Cllr Patrick OāDonovan FG
Cllr James Heffernan Lb
John Dillon Ind
Surprised to see no SF candidate there. Only 6 candidates for 3 seats.
Doesnāt really give a man much options. Probably give Dan Neville the No1.
Tell me about this lad from NCW, he looks like heās around 12 years old in his photo. Has he any real world experience or is he another career politician?
I have a bit of time for Cuffe. Heās an honest guy and had some reasonable ideas but he hasnāt a prayer of getting back in. Not enough profile in the Greens even. The loss of one seat in that constituency makes the race there very interesting. Looks like at least one minister will miss out too, probably Andrews alright.
I think was father was a Councillor as well alright, Donovan the auctioneer??
Did you hear the supposed āstreet sweeper from Finglasā who attacked (verbally) Enda Kenny in Carrick On Shannon last night? There was definitely the twang of a university education off him.
:lol:
Thatās gas. All the local gombeen blueshirts seething with him for ruining their big night.
He obviously a plant??
Bobby Channels - FFS.
Neville to top the poll, followed by one of the two remaining FG candidates, Iāll go with OāDonnell against my better judgement.
Personally Iād have Collins shipped to Siberia in a wooden crate, but he might squeeze back in on the strength of the moronic 14-20 % of the country that are willing to vote FF.
Labās Heffernan to just lose out, although heāll be receiving a first or second preference from me cos Lord knows we could use some new faces in the DĆ”il.
Wild Card: John Dillon (ex IFA pres) may split the neanderthal vote and hurt Collinsā chances of getting back in.
I donāt think he is any relation to that fella. He was the auctioneer on the frontline supporting the anti-hunt lobby wasnāt he?
:lol: