Anyone know where is the count centre for Limerick county @treatystones @Julio_Geordio? I might rock up there tomorrow.
Ul
The Ballysteen clubhouse afaik. The caretaker (a small lad) will let you in. Mention that âThe Dunphâ was a pal of yours.
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I said Renua 1 but looking more at the figures I really donât know.
Working off a 15.4% figure for SF in Dublin, and 14.6% for FF, you have to say Andrews (SF) and OâCallaghan (FF) are in a great position to take the second and third seats in Dublin Bay South.
You have to assume that Murphy (FG) is safe - whatever the split between himself and OâConnell heâll take a seat.
That could leave the last seat as a four way battle between Creighton (Renua), Humphreys (Labour), Ryan (Green) and OâConnell (FG).
Humphreys and Ryan will be much more transfer-friendly than Creighton, you would think.
It would be a real Portillo moment if Creighton lost and I think itâs genuinely on.
This. Like when we were given the choice to to get rid of the Seanad.
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With the plethora of left/Independent candidates around I think SF could transfer better than many people think. Theyâve been polling well into the 20s for a lot of the past few years. Thatâs a considerable drop to the exit poll figure of 14.9%, but the flip-side of that is is that the nearly 10% of the support theyâve lost has to go somewhere - a lot is likely to have gone to Independents or the AAA. The transfers of that nearly 10% also has to go somewhere, and SF is as likely a destination as anywhere. Crucially, for SF, those transfers should mostly come from âbelowâ, as it were, rather than in the form of surpluses which are usually very small.
SF candidates I think will definitely be elected as per the exit poll are as follows:
Adams (Louth)
OâCaoilean (Cavan - Monaghan)
Kenny (Sligo-Leitrim)
Andrews (Dublin Bay South)
Mac Donncha (Dublin Bay North) (or at least one Shinner)
Brady (Wicklow)
Doherty (Donegal)
MacLochlainn (Donegal)
Cullinane (Waterford)
McDonald (Dublin Central)
OâBroin (Dublin Mid-West)
Donnelly (Dublin West)
Crowe (Dublin South West)
Ellis (Dublin North West)
OâSnodaigh (Dublin South Central)
OâReilly (Dublin Fingal)
Quinlivan (Limerick City)
OâBrien (Cork North Central)
OâLaoighaire (Cork South Central)
Toibin (Meath West)
Stanley (Laois)
Funchion (Carlow-Kilkenny)
Thatâs 22.
It gets more difficult after that.
I think Buckley (Cork East) and Munster (Louth) will probably get in to make it 24.
Then youâre onto the 50/50 battles like Ferris (Kerry), Reilly (Cavan/Monaghan), OâRourke (Meath East), Moran (Clare), OâClochartaigh (Galway West), Holland (Dublin South West), and the puncherâs chances like Hogan (Longford-Westmeath), Nolan (Offaly) and Gould (Cork North Central) and the long shots like Mythen (Wexford) and Cronin (Kildare North).
Up the RA.
How indenameofjayzus is Portillo/Creighton a valid comparison you excitable eejit?
Agreed. No comparison. One is a hateful, smug, arrogant, ultra-conservative zealot, the other is a very nice gentleman who presents excellent television programmes about railways.
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RTĂ Exit Poll out in a couple of minutes. Should tell a lot.
#exitpoll RTE . FG 24.8 FF 21.1 LAB 7.1 SF 16 AAA-PBP 4.7 Ind 11, Ind Al 3, SD 3.7, Green 3.6, RI 2.4
Carnage for government based on those RTE figures. The RTE poll is a good bit more scientific than the Paper of Record poll.
Some reasonably material differences there. That would be positive for SF and a disaster for the government.
All within the margin of error but looks bad for FG
Still cannot see anything else but FG/FF government (Kenny to step aside but he wonât) now unless LAB could be persuaded to go in with FF/SF/Sd but it would end them as a party
Kenny (and some of his handlers) are goners
Still think that the vote is so fragmented it will give some seat bonus to the bigger parties
The game is afoot.
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Weâre back. Weâre fucking back!! What a day this is going to be. Up Fianna Fail. Up Ireland
That retard Kenny should go into a dark room with a bottle of whiskey and a loaded revolver
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For all the high independent vote, itâs hard to see things like 7 SD or 4 greens. Huge volumes of transfers out there. There will be many counts and many seats going well into Sun and beyond
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The real story is obviously the collapse of the government vote but 21.1% for Fianna Fail is almost as dismal. Thatâs only up 3.5% on the 17.5% recorded in the 2011 meltdown.
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He would probably miss. Better keep the light on.
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