General Election 2016

tallback · February 19, 2016, 7:27am

Indo poll for Dub Bay South.

4 seats. Quota is 20%.

Murphy (FG) - 20%
Andrews (SF) - 17%
Creighton(RN) - 13%
Humphries (Lab) - 13%
O’Callaghan (FF) - 11%
O’Connell (FG) - 10%
Ryan (Green) - 7%

Creighton polling that she’ll get very few transfers.

Nembo_Kid · February 19, 2016, 8:47am

Would Andrews get many FF transfers there?

TreatyStones · February 19, 2016, 8:53am

Yeats predicting

2 Sinn Fein, 1 FG & 1 FF in Cavan/Monaghan.

tazdedub · February 19, 2016, 9:00am

Will heather humphries get in in cavan?

TreatyStones · February 19, 2016, 9:01am

Comfortably he reckons

tallback · February 19, 2016, 9:40am

Andrews is a bit of an odd cases @Nembo_Kid. To be honest I’m surprised he’s polling as high as 17% for a number of reasons. The main “traditional” SF areas in the constituency are in Ringsend/Irishtown. Feedback would suggest he’s pretty strong there and there’s a strong “anyone but Labour” vibe. However, I would have thought lots of SFer’s would be wary of him after his FF background and transfer. I’d also imagine a lot of FF types would despise him for that too, reducing transfers. There’d always be a personal appeal though.

Anyway, the consensus I heard last night was that they were surprised that Andrews was polling so high and Ryan so low.

I still think that its a wide open constituency and any of about 7 candidates are real possibilities for the 4 seats.

Matty_Hislop · February 19, 2016, 9:43am

Don’t forget Pearse St, Grand Canal St areas, Andrews will clean up there.

tallback · February 19, 2016, 9:59am

Absolutely. And the international businessmen in the fancy GCD apartment blocks

Rocko · February 19, 2016, 10:33am

Some cheek of Michael Noonan on the radio this morning criticising the maths in the manifestos of other parties.

His basic point was:

Nobody has allowed for public sector pay increases
FG/Lab haven’t allowed for it explicitly either
FG/Lab can’t put it in the manifesto because it would be unwise to put a figure on it because if the public sector unions heard the figure they’d have a starting point for negotiations.
The figure FG/Lab have in mind is €1.5B. But they won’t be putting that down in writing in the manifesto.
But FF and others should have put the €1.5B in their manifesto.
But they shouldn’t write it down because that will give the game away of how much there is to spend.
There is therefore a €1.5B hole in the FF manifesto because that’s the size of the public sector pay increases that FG/Lab haven’t put in their manifesto because they want to keep the size of the €1.5B increase a secret.

The cheek of those blueshirts/redshirts lecturing other parties on their spending projections when they fucked up the maths themselves.

Bandage · February 19, 2016, 10:34am

Eamonn Ryan seems like an alright sort to me.

Have I got this one wrong, chaps?

Rocko · February 19, 2016, 10:44am

[quote=“Bandage, post:2456, topic:21776, full:true”].

Eamonn Ryan seems like an alright sort to me.

Have I got this one wrong, chaps?
[/quote]
I wouldn’t be a huge fan. He’s not evil or anything, just not a chap I can warm to. I’ll allow you to make up your own mind though. I won’t be dictating any official TFK policy here.

croppy_boy · February 19, 2016, 10:58am

This was released yesterday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fI335hAEIRg

Julio_Geordio · February 19, 2016, 11:01am

You couldn’t trust him Bando, but then you can’t trust any of them.

tallback · February 19, 2016, 11:03am

I thought his point was that they had it within a broader €4 billion category but that FF didn’t have it in anywhere.

Those sort of debates with politicians shouting numbers at each other are a bit pointless I reckon though.

That being said, the FF guy sounded like a bit of a simpleton - they prob should have put McGrath forward.

tallback · February 19, 2016, 11:04am

Very inoffensive. Not sure whether that’s a good thing though. I’d say he’ll pick up transfers to beat the band.

Little_Lord_Fauntleroy · February 19, 2016, 11:11am

he must be the worst member of FF/Labour for self promotion

all style-no substance

croppy_boy · February 19, 2016, 11:22am

No 2, no beats Alan Kelly.

TreatyStones · February 19, 2016, 11:27am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g65HkGSiujQ

Smark · February 19, 2016, 11:28am

Vincent fairly schooled young Jack Chambers last night on a number of occasions. The young FF man had a really poor showing but the party must rate him a rising star of sorts as he’s the only candidate running for them in this constituency. He’s 1/8 to win a seat where Joan Burton for example is 11/8 in the same constituency.

Did he just have a bad night because he looked really wet behind the ears to me?

Rocko · February 19, 2016, 11:43am

[quote=“tallback, post:2460, topic:21776, full:true”].

I thought his point was that they had it within a broader €4 billion category but that FF didn’t have it in anywhere.

Those sort of debates with politicians shouting numbers at each other are a bit pointless I reckon though.

That being said, the FF guy sounded like a bit of a simpleton - they prob should have put McGrath forward.
[/quote]
They are claiming to have it within the €4 billion category but they’re also claiming to be spending €4 billion on public services. They can’t have it both ways.

And FG’s political wing haven’t included the cost anywhere either.

This is just distraction stuff from Noonan and fair play to him he got a few headlines out of it. There’s nothing to say that FG have properly costed for this, even if they have it’s part of a larger spending number. FF have more kept back in contingency and could use that contingency to achieve the same spend as FG have.

It’s funny that FG/Lab are brazen enough to go through the specifics of the finances though when they were caught red-handed with an enormous error at the start of the campaign. This point is really just semantics and it amused me how Michael Noonan keeps telling everyone the number while explaining that they don’t have it in their manifesto because they don’t want anyone to know the number.