What happens if there is a hung DĂĄil?
Do we just vote again?
Danny Healy Rae now running in Kerry also.
Shit just got real.
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Would they get two in?
Well the first fella is favourite to get the most first preference votes in the country, so eh ya they probably could if they managed it well.
They must be confident, didnt Jackie and Michael get in together in the past? How is the boundary down there now, I presume it was redrawn also?
This will affect that youâd imagine, should affect a few lads whoâve put money down on it.
Burton wonât even be close to a seat unless thereâs a massive change in those figures.
Varadkar will likely come in at just under a quota and thus will have no transfers to distribute to her.
The second Fine Gael candidate is running at under 2% and thus the gap is unbridgeable for Burton.
Transfers from the other candidates eliminated will likely break more for Coppinger.
Big time, itâs a lay now
No. The son took over the seat when the bould Jackie retired.
If the Healy Raes got two in who would lose out? FF or the second blueshirt?
Paddy Power have taken down odds for the Kerry constituency.
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If he comes in just under a quote then theyâll have to give him transfers in the next count to get him over the quota.
In that case then heâd likely have a shitpile more transfer to send her way.
However if he came in just over the quota itâd be worse for her as thereâd be no further distribution of votes towards him.
It wonât matter. Varadkar will only come in a bare amount over the quota whenever he reaches it. Heâll only have a token surplus of 200-300 at most to distribute.
McGuinnessâs transfers are the interesting variable here. He ran for FF in the 2011 by-election but then left the party.
If heâs running at 9% thatâs a considerable amount to distribute.
I wonder will some blueshirts vote tactically for Burton?
Kerry has been reunited into a 5 seater (-1 seat) for this election but Iâd expect a lot of it to go along North/South lines as before. Two from NK & 2 from SK with one swing. North Kerry wonât be giving much to the Healy Raes for example, not that itâll bother them.
Tom Fleming (IND) held a seat there and only recently announced he wasnât running. That really opened the way for Healy Rae x 2 because he was South Kerry based as well.
Deenihan FG (NK), Ferris SF (NK) & Healy Rae 1 IND (SK) are certs.
Iâd give Healy Rae 2 IND (SK) a great shout now.
Between Brassil FF(NK), Spring LB (NK), Moriarty FF (SK) & Griffin FG (SK) for the last. The biggest blow to those 4 is to Moriarty as she is South Kerry & FF which is the natural Healy Rae base (though theyâd have fairly cross party support). Second biggest suffer is Griffin FG.
Iâd say itâs between Brassil & Spring for the last seat.
Brassil should shave it, FF used to regularly return one in North & one in South until 2011 & still managed one in North in 2011. So should be enough of a base for him. He is very well liked by all accounts as well.
Spring has an outside chance here and this may actually help him as he is North Kerry based and the Healy Raes will be drawing away from the other south Kerry candidates, particularly on the 2nd prefs. The amount required to get the 5th seat has gone down a bit post this announcement I would say.
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Jesus 2 Healy Raes in the dail is a depressing thought.
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Maybe themselves and Lowry could launch a new party.
MĂ© FĂ©in
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Well if he comes in just under it and then Noone gets eliminated with a couple of thousand votes then there could be a completely different story.
Itâs often funny how these things work out on the day of the count.
Wexford went like that in 2002 when Liam Twomey got elected as an Independent - the eliminations and elections worked out perfectly for him.
Another example of the simple route Kerry have out of Munster as opposed to elsewhere.