General Election 2016

[croppy_boy]

There’s something seriously wrong with his algorithm.

Some of the Sinn Fein figures are scarcely believable.

[Fagan_ODowd]

@tallback

Update on that website http://www.irishelectionstats.com

Looking at it in more detail, it does probability by party, constituency, gender etc and then time series each time new polls are released.

If the model is confirmed as accurate - then it’s a game changer for Irish politics.

TFK Exclusive.

This is a crock of shit.

[Julio_Geordio]

@tallback

Update on that website http://www.irishelectionstats.com

Looking at it in more detail, it does probability by party, constituency, gender etc and then time series each time new polls are released.

If the model is confirmed as accurate - then it’s a game changer for Irish politics.

I had a quick look at the methodology and found a fair few flaws, nice exercise in academia but ultimately useless.

[croppy_boy]

The founder is a former employee of Young Fine Gael

[myboyblue]

@Julio_Geordio

@tallback

Update on that website http://www.irishelectionstats.com

Looking at it in more detail, it does probability by party, constituency, gender etc and then time series each time new polls are released.

If the model is confirmed as accurate - then it’s a game changer for Irish politics.

I had a quick look at the methodology and found a fair few flaws, nice exercise in academia but ultimately useless.

Thats a nice summation of Irish academia.

[tallback]

Yeah - some of the results seem a bit off alright.

Hopefully if he’s put the framework in place - the methodology can be updated appropriately.

The big issue with Irish national polls is how it maps onto the constituencies. The first couple of seats in each constituency are fairly obvious, it’s at the margins where the election is won and lost.

[cmontofuck]

http://www.irishelectionstats.com/the-irish-election-stats-model-explained/

“In any constituency, transfers contain a mix of party preferences (Sinn Féin to AAA/PBP for example) and local characteristics. The latter is beyond the scope of this model. We lack sufficient data to allocate transfers based on close proximity of candidates.”

Big problem there already.

[Julio_Geordio]

@Fagan_ODowd

@tallback

Update on that website http://www.irishelectionstats.com

Looking at it in more detail, it does probability by party, constituency, gender etc and then time series each time new polls are released.

If the model is confirmed as accurate - then it’s a game changer for Irish politics.

TFK Exclusive.

This is a crock of shit.

Complete and utter.

I was looking at the PP constituency betting there. Not much value. 4 odds on shots for a 3 seater in Limerick county.

[Julio_Geordio]

@tallback

Yeah - some of the results seem a bit off alright.

Hopefully if he’s put the framework in place - the methodology can be updated appropriately.

The big issue with Irish national polls is how it maps onto the constituencies. The first couple of seats in each constituency are fairly obvious, it’s at the margins where the election is won and lost.

Ya it’s at the margins where that is weakest as well.

It needs a qualitative overview, to go with the numbers.

[Sidney]

@Julio_Geordio

I was looking at the PP constituency betting there. Not much value. 4 odds on shots for a 3 seater in Limerick county.

Seven odds on shots in five-seat Tipperary last time I looked.

Compare that with the four-seater of Clare where Michael McNamara is in fourth place in the betting at 15/8.

Weird.

[croppy_boy]

if you’re looking for value look at where FG are pushign for a 3rd seat or FF are pushing for a second where there’s a strong Independent in the field behind them

The way things are going on the airwaves undecided are going to end up voting for Independents as they’re the only ones that they won’t be sick of hearing. If there’s a case of a second SF candidate getting eliminated then they normally push the Independents over the line.

From what I can see there’s value for Independents in Donegal,

Shane Curran actually looks like decent value in Roaster Roscommon at 13/8.

There’s a small bit of value in Wicklow as well and it’s normal a clusterfuck come transfer time.

[Julio_Geordio]

@Sidney

@Julio_Geordio

I was looking at the PP constituency betting there. Not much value. 4 odds on shots for a 3 seater in Limerick county.

Seven odds on shots in five-seat Tipperary last time I looked.

Compare that with the four-seater of Clare where Michael McNamara is in fourth place in the betting at 15/8.

Weird.

I suppose in say Limerick County you have two home and hosed, so really you are only betting on the last spot which is a two horse race. Still terrible odds. 2/5 & 8/13 in a two horse race essentially. I doubt they are taking on sort of money on the shorter ones.

[Julio_Geordio]

@croppy_boy

if you’re looking for value look at where FG are pushign for a 3rd seat or FF are pushing for a second where there’s a strong Independent in the field behind them

The way things are going on the airwaves undecided are going to end up voting for Independents as they’re the only ones that they won’t be sick of hearing. If there’s a case of a second SF candidate getting eliminated then they normally push the Independents over the line.

From what I can see there’s value for Independents in Donegal,

Shane Curran actually looks like decent value in Roaster Roscommon at 13/8.

There’s a small bit of value in Wicklow as well and it’s normal a clusterfuck come transfer time.

Danny Healy Rae is 5/2

[Fagan_ODowd]

@Sidney

@Julio_Geordio

I was looking at the PP constituency betting there. Not much value. 4 odds on shots for a 3 seater in Limerick county.

Seven odds on shots in five-seat Tipperary last time I looked.

Compare that with the four-seater of Clare where Michael McNamara is in fourth place in the betting at 15/8.

Weird.

If only we had somebody to source a dutching opportunity for us amongst these bets.

[anon61956325]

You’d have to say that the only leader enhancing their party after last night is Martin… He has fuck all behind him tho as FF are weak and still haven’t got away from parish pump politics. Labour are destroyed which is a shame… She needs to go and they need to rebrand badly- Enda is a simpleton, it’s as simple as that. As much as I love Gerry, he has to step aside and let the party roll the dice… He will no doubt be remembered as the greatest Irish man of his generation in time, but right now the troubles are still too raw and he will always be a target for cheap political shots that will reflect on the party.

[croppy_boy]

I think he’ll be lucky. It’s one thing electing of the Healy-Raes but, realistically, Michael will need to get almost two quotas to bring him across the line.

What is the the quota likely to be?

[tallback]

A “young turks” debate would be more craic imho - AK47, Leo, Pearse and McGrath. All, with the exception of McGrath, would bring an improved edge to the thing I’d reckon.

[anon61956325]

Amen, pal.

[anon61956325]

When is the next debate?

[Nembo_Kid]

I don’t think these shots about the troubles are that damaging any more. I think it has actually helped to further SF’s grasp on the border regions. South of Dublin is generally where SF struggle which is primarily due to the people there being utter simpletons.

SF will solidify and expand its base, it will establish itself as the leaders of the opposition and will capitalise on the unmasking of FF/FG finally being showb to be two chips off the one block. 2021 or before will be our year.