100 years on and an election on this island still being fought on the basis of the treaty. What a people 
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Thinly veiled - āit is a republic and I am wrongā
Typical free state claptrap
Isnāt the FG policy that as USC is phased out - it is effectively kept at a same rate (but below 50%) for the portion of the salary above 100k so high earners donāt disproportionately benefit from USC cut.
The SF policy is to increase the tax rate on salaries above 100k to a marginal rate of between late 50ās and low 60ās.
That seems quite different policy to me i.e. tax increases vs no tax increases.
Typical republic claptrap more like.
It takes time to build up a party structure from nothing, especially given the historical advantage which FF and FG have.
Labour in Ireland has the been the largest historical case study of failure in Europe.
The PDs after an initial burst fizzled out very quickly.
Several other small parties never got beyond a handful of seats.
Gerry Adams has steadily built Sinn Fein up to a position where leading a government is a realistic possibility in 5-10 yearsā time. Thatās an incredible achievement and heās done it in the face of the whole of the Southern Irish political and media establishment treating it as a pariah.
Yatesy called Meath East today
- FG - McEntee
- FF - Byrne
- SF - OāDonnell
Sitting TDās Regina Doherty (FG) and Dominic Hannigan (LAB) to loose out.
Says the INTERNET neo-Nazi supporter. 
If Yatesy is calling Meath East and Dublin Bay South for SF, he must think SF will be well north of 30 seats and FG/Labour under 65 seats.
Interesting website here @Sidney
http://www.irishelectionstats.com
Essentially the guy behind it has built a model that integrates both the latest opinion polls and a constituency by constituency analysis. Itās a pretty detailed model and the first one Iāve seen that tries to use nationwide opinion polls to build up a seat analysis including regional weightings, transfer weightings etc.
For what itās worth - heās calling SF for 31 seats.
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I think you will find that by the 100th anniversary of the Civil War, the Civil War will be officially over. FG and FF will have governed together and having governed together will wonder what all the fuss was about for the last century. They will continue then to govern as a block for a long time.
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Youāre up early today.
Well observed Fagan, knock off the few years there will ya?
Update on that website http://www.irishelectionstats.com
Looking at it in more detail, it does probability by party, constituency, gender etc and then time series each time new polls are released.
If the model is confirmed as accurate - then itās a game changer for Irish politics.
Thatās really good.
Itāll never take into account the intricacies of the transferable vote though.
For instance, Dessie Shiels has a 0% chance of a seat in Donegal despite the fact that on his first outing five years he polled 1500 first prefs and has steadily built his base and profile. Heāll be the go to transfer in Letterkenny and North Donegal. Paddy Power have him at 13/2
In Wexford it gives the Sinn FĆ©in candidate a 100% chance of winning a seat but Brendan Howlin a 1% chance of winning one. Paddy Power have him at 1/10.
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Actually looking at Dublin Bay North - it doesnāt make any sense.
SF with 2 candidates >80% is way off. Or am I misreading something?
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I donāt get it though. In Dublin Bay North it gives both SFers an 80% plus chance of being elected. But I donāt think anyone believes theyāll get two seats, so does high probability suggest thatās where the seats will go?
Snap. Thatās the point at which I lost faith in this panjandrum.