I see Leix-Offaly is back as a five seater
In 2016 each was a three seater returning 1 FF 1 FG 1 SF
Logic would say that’s 2 FF 2 FG and Stanley of SF - Nolan formerly of SF will lose out
There are 40 constituencies. Can you throw up possible candidates from one constituency a day which we can look at and discuss…not in a Labane/Sidney type discussion.
No votes either as the Priests will appear from nowhere.
If the election is called you might need to increase the number of constituencies.
Mix up the counties each day so we can look at the rural/urban divide.
1 Like
I just had a look there
The number of seats has gone up to 160 from 158 but the number of constituencies has gone down from 40 to 39
Dublin Central, Kildare South and Cavan Monaghan gain a seat
Leix and Offaly go from two 3 seaters to one 5 seater
Cavan Monaghan will be one gain for FG or SF, probably FG
Right. 39 constituencies.
One a day.
Surely we can beat the bookies by the time the election is called.
Agreed . Duncan Smith took a hammering in Fingal in an election he was red hot favorite to win mainly because the middle class vote Labour needs stayed at home. That and Labour are lazy on the ground in Fingal. And despised by many in swords where he is from.
2 Likes
Notwithstanding the rumours about planning irregularities in Portmarnock being over looked for some members Peter Coyle was always returned but those days are long gone.
Labour is with O’Leary in the grave. Gone, Goodbye, Good luck.
3 Likes
Politics is generally pretty circular
If SF do as badly as you’re predicting or anywhere close to it, their vote has to go somewhere and some will go to Labour
All Labour need at this election is small gains, even two or three seats
That stops the rot and gives something to build on
The Social Democrats have faded away, other small parties have faded away before them
What Labour has is history and tradition, that’s a big deal when you;re trying to rebuild a party
Long term Irish party politics is looking at FF/FG +3 and those three are Labour, SF and Green
That was more directed to @Juhniallio but you’re right they could get some votes back. Not sure though.
They are still seen as number 3 and a respectable party. It wasn’t til Brendan Howlin stood up about the Garda in the Dail was it taken seriously by the media and others.
Claire, Mick and SF were shouting for months on deaf ears.
I think with the help of Coveney and events today he may get SF a bounce at the right time.
Events…
I think Neasa Hourigan will beat Gannon here.
Is drumcondra still in Dublin Central ?
It’s gaining a seat and taking in all of Drumcondra I think.
1 Like
She will and has very little chance
Ursula is here next week. So they will wait until she’s gone and that pushes it to Valentine’s Day alright.
1 Like
Best place for them
FG are cunts and many people will be spoiling for a bit of a bloody nose for them. Having said that, I think the electorate has enough ‘I’m alright Jack’ people who are comfortable enough and who will quietly vote for FG to continue. Theyll lose seats but only a couple.
FF are sneaky cunts and people just aren’t ready to go back to them yet. The more they talk the morw obvious their cuntery. They need a quick campaign, that’s only focused on MM.
Sf and the greens are going to be the recipients of this In my view. Sf got a warning in the locals but people still want an alternative and SF green are the only ones. Sf got a kicking in the locals but Mary Lou is an excellent debater and if they get any chance to debate o broin and Doherty would batter most opposition. One of the reasons Leo doesn’t want a long campaign.
The greens will be everyone’s second party and will be most transfer friendly. I think they’ll pick up seats left right and centre. This will obviously affect Labour, who normally are in fights for the last seat when they get in. Where a Labour recovery would have been on the cards for me, I now think we’ll see a lot of close but no cigar. Lavour gains will be made on outstanding local candidates as opposed to a national lightening of the hatred and Labour being transfer friendly again.
The standout bet for me is SF 17seats plus on pp @ 5/6 but who wants to bet those odds.
Only thing stopping sinn fein beating that is all the current TDs they have that have either left the party or not running for reelection
That would seem to be a climbdown of farmer proportions from you @Rocko. You guaranteed us the 7th a couple of days ago?
1 Like
What sane person would vote for the Greens? They havent a fucking clue, not even about the climate.
1 Like
Bohs -v- Rovers moves from 14th so not to take attention away from election
Election will be 14th
1 Like
What difference does that make? Michael Healy Rae can’t chew his own food for fucks sake and he’ll top the poll. The greens have an ethos and integrity, for people who share those values that is something worth voting for.
2 Likes